Hillary doesn't 'need' my vote; #VoteGreen

NPR has a nice piece here about how likely Hillary Clinton is to beat Donald Trump. The best part is that, starting with 2012 Obama-Romney turnout by various demographic groups likely to be key in this election, you and I can, by making hypothetical changes this year, with sliders, see what the likely electoral vote margin will be. (NOTE: NPR appears to assume that third-party voting will be unchanged, a dangerous assumption.)

First, if nothing changes, Clinton will nonetheless win bigger over Trump than Obama did either time.

Now, my personal changes.

I moved white women 2 percent more for Clinton plus 1 percent more turnout. Cut black turnout 3 percent. Left all else unchanged.

Clinton wins 363/175. She wins by that margin, if women turnout and break her way like that, even if black turnout falls 5 percent.

Let's make things a lot tougher. Women only break 1 percent more her way, on the same turnout. White men break another 2 percent GOP, and turnout is 1 percent higher. Blacks break the same on percentages, with 6 percent lower turnout than 2012; Hispanic turnout falls 2 percent, same break, as 2012.

Trump ekes out a 282-256 win. And, given that Trump is reportedly below 50 percent among college-educated whites, even that would seemingly be big uphill sledding.

If I keep those parameters, but cut the white male break to 1 percent, she still wins, 294-244. On all parameters, she wins, by that margin, unless total turnout falls dramatically.

Add in that Ted Cruz clearly refused to endorse Trump, in prime time, at the Republican National Convention. And won't this year.

So, she doesn't need my vote. If things are that bad, she's in Dewey Defeats Truman range.

Tim Duncan retires; Spurs better off?

Yes, it sounds like heresy to say the 2016-17 San Antonio Spurs may be better off without the Big Fundamental, Tim Duncan, after he announced his retirement.

So, call me a heretic.

First, I'm going to assume that his right knee remained baulky.

Second, I'm going to state for the record, not just assume, that Pau Gasol in current health and age will be a better defensive as well as offensive player. No, peak Pau was not peak Timmeh. But TD was NOT a rim protector last year and Pau will at least be 50 percent of one. Yes, Duncan has the third best defensive win shares, says Basketball-Reference, in league history. But Pau is in the top 60, and in general, is modestly on the plus side.

Yes, a healthy Timmeh was great at defending the pick-and-roll and neither Gasol nor Lamarcus Aldridge are. But, TD wasn't fully healthy last year and might well not have been, at least in hoops terms, for the year ahead. Gasol is still a good shot blocker and at least an OK defender.

Third, I'm going to note Pau's at least as good a passer, and a better outside shooter.

Fourth, I'll note for the record that, between regular season and playoffs, Gasol has 15,000 fewer miles on the odometer. Even though Gasol had played just four fewer seasons, that's the equivalent of almost five seasons, really.

Fifth, Gasol is at least a vague 3-ball threat, with a higher effective shooting percentage, whereas Duncan was a nothingburger outside the arc.

But, beyond that?

This lets Kawhi Leonard make the team his, especially if Pops makes sure Tony Parker gets that message.

I assume Manu Ginobili is back with the Spurs .... and as productive as late last season. Can Patty Mills step up more? And, what's the long-term answer at the point? How much of a pay cut will TP accept after 2017-18? Will Pops stick? I think he will.

That said, had the Spurs not landed Gasol, TD might have come back. And he would have made the team better than one without either big.

Oh, you and I will see a more uptempo Spurs team next year.

TX Progressives remember both #BlackLivesMatter and dedicated police officers

The Texas Progressive Alliance mourns the Dallas Police Department's losses at a peaceful Black Lives Matter protest, and continues to support peaceful, constructive solutions for our country's ongoing racial issues as we bring you this week's roundup. Or, per Jim Hightower, let's reason together about BLM, privilege and much more.

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Off the Kuff notes some interesting aspects of national polls and how they relate to Texas.

Libby Shaw at Daily Kos urges Democratic candidates to run as Democrats.  Neo-liberalism and Republican lite are not winnable options. A Gentle Reminder to Texas Democrats. Neoliberalism is not a winning solution.

The Texas Republican in charge of social services (isn't that a joke) shows the typical Republican disdain for women, their families and their health by offering mosquito repellent to fight off the Zika virus.  CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme is disgusted.

July is presidential nominating conventions month and PDiddie at Brains and Eggs has the lowdown on the Republicans, Democrats, and Greens (coming to Houston in August).

SocraticGadfly advises environmentalists not to get fooled by Exxon's head fakes on a carbon tax.

Neil at All People Have Value walked in the Sharpstown neighborhood of Houston with his sign regarding the value of everyday life. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.



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And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

The TSTA Blog applauds Hillary Clinton's promise to reduce the role of standardized testing in public schools.

Eva DeLuna Castro places the blame for Texas' tightened budget where it belongs.

Grits for Breakfast points out the benefits to local sheriffs of treating 17-year-olds as juveniles and not adults.

Juliet Stipech and Norma Torres Mendoza argue that comprehensive immigration reform is a matter of the United Statesí continued economic prosperity.

Better Texas Blog begins prep work for the 2017 budget process.

#DumpTrump vs MSM clickbait

Folks, in the few remaining days leading up to the GOP convention, you're going to see more and more stories about the possibility of Republican delegates dumping Donald Trump as the party's nominee.

And most of them, like this one from Sunday, are going to be bullshit. Any story like this that has to go hunting back to 1896 for analogies should be suspect right there.

But, there's an even easier reason to fault this one. It says NOTHING about state-by-state GOP rules on delegates. Immediately discount any similar such stories.

Beyond that, in the clickbaiting piece at hand, delegates who don't vote could also be ruled "Absent," thus cutting how many Trump needs.

Look, GOPers, he'w being nominated. Deal with it.

Look, newshounds, shit like this is clickbait. Ignore it.

And it's now officially dead.

#DallasPoliceShootings, Day 2

First, here's a roundup of the basics, from yesterday.

That said, there are other angles, both civil liberties related.

First, what civil liberties issues relate to using a robot-delivered bomb, remotely guided by human control, to killl the prime suspect? Marcy at Emptywheel has good thoughts. I agree that this is a bit like Obama's drone war program.

Second is the connection between blacks being killed by police and the War on Drugs. Even if election-related, kudos to Libertarian prez nominee Gary Johnson for bringing this up. Johnson carefully did not directly link the most recent controversial shootings to the WOD, just a more general connection.

Third, Micah Xavier Johnson was not just a war vet, but served in A-stan. PTSD, anybody? (More on his background here, and here.) Or does the media only ask that about white veterans like Eddie Ray Routh, the man who killed "American Sniper" Chris Kyle?

Fourth, we now have at least one copycat.

Fifth, we have the first false-flag bullshit, complete with anti-Semitism.

Sixth, we have blind hogs, acorns and Newt halfway making sense.

Seventh, yes, Obama went straight to guns. But the issue is retributive violence:

Villager, Tevye:
An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth!" "Very good. That way, the whole world will be blind and toothless.
-Villager, Tevye

along with racism in some cases, classism in others.

Getting past the mindset of violence is the bottom line, with getting past the mindset of stereotyping closely linked.

Eighth, per the Green Party of Texas, we do need proper police accountability and oversight.

Ninth, we need to remember that cops needlessly shoot white people, the mentally ill, and more, and do so in rural areas. High Country News has more.

Infamy in Dallas and an eye for an eye?

#Dallas Chief: Suspect said he was "upset at white people, wanted to kill white people, especially white officers."https://t.co/ygYQAJlFfL

— CBS This Morning (@CBSThisMorning) July 8, 2016

More here from Chief Brown and Mayor Rawlings.

In an apparent racist attack in response to deaths of blacks, usually just seconds after being taken into custody, by police officers, and possible racism by white officers involved with that, five Dallas-area police officers are dead, as is the suspect, in a quite premeditated attack on Dallas police patrolling a protest march last night. One suspect was killed by robotic bomb; three others are in custody, police say.

Several thoughts.

First, violence begets violence. Tevye knew that, and its ultimate result, in Fiddler on The Roof.

Villager, Tevye: 

An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth!" "Very good. That way, the whole world will be blind and toothless.
-Villager, Tevye

Doesn't matter who started it. Violence begets violence.

Second, please, no "prayers for." I have repeatedly said the same about fundamentalist and conservative evangelicals' reactions to places and events like Orlando. I say the same now to liberal interfaith ministers, some of whom may have been in last night's protest and who are planning a prayer event at noon.

Maybe, like Jews at Auschwitz, a few more Americans will start coming to the conclusion that .... nobody's listening, or maybe even that nobody's there to listen.

(Actually, not just Jews at Auschwitz. Most of Europe was almost as religious as the U.S. until World War II.)

Third, as the assassin (that's the right word, folks), showed, "reverse racism" is racism. Well-poisoning begets well-poisoning.

That includes inflammatory tabloid newspaper covers.

And, it also includes, even worse than GOP whackjobs politicizing this, the head of the National Association of Police Organizations arguably politicizing it even more (near bottom). And Bill Johnson then doubled down, accusing Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton of politicizing the Philando Castile shooting there — part of what was being the Dallas protest — by saying Castile might not have been shot if he were white.

(That said, things complicate a bit in the real world; the officer who shot Castile is Hispanic, not Anglo.)

NAPO itself is a puff-job outlet that represents less than one-fourth of the 1.1 million police officers nationally. It is also a wingnut among police organizations, especially compared to the mainstream Fraternal Order of Police and others.

Jim Pasco, head of FOP, in his comments, did accuse President Obama of a bit of pandering, but also admitted police aren't perfect, and, like Dallas' Chief Brown, that work must be done all around to fix the various divides. (The FOP isn't all roses, though.)

First, at least in my minds, the protests are anti BAD cop, not anti cop. Second, there is no civil war, at least not yet. Per Chief Brown, we need to stop the divide that's already there.

However, Chief Justice John Roberts, with:

The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race.

Doesn't have the answer, either.

Something both simplistic and fatuous makes him part of the problem, not part of the solution. Legislation can't change hearts, but it can constrain outward actions.

The work stretching back to the 1950s and 1960s has plateaued. And blacks are also no longer America's largest racial minority. Per LBJ, we need to pick up that work again.

Per Chris Hedges (thanks, Brains) we must recognize that we have an "ossified" state. Sorry, Mr. Umpire in Chief, but them's the facts.

Fourth, stop with the conspiracy thinking as well as the prayers, whether claiming the assassin was white, or surely, as an Alex Jones type will say, that is was a police false flag, or that police used this as an excuse to shoot into the crowd. (There were many white people in the crowd, per video; a police sniper couldn't have picked out just blacks in a melee.)

I know that such small thoughts are a tiny minority, but we don't need them to get bigger.

As a former Metroplex resident, I say focus on how many police and protestors tried to help each other.

As a former Metroplex resident who marched there for gay rights events, ant-war protests when Shrub Bush and Darth Cheney were in town, protests outside eXXXon shareholder meetings and more, I don't appreciate anybody making my freedom of assembly more scary.

As for the infamy? It's the most police killed on one day since 9/11, and likely the most famous killing in Dallas since Nov. 22, 1963.

Finally, without denigrating Black Lives Matter, let's smell some coffee and note that at times in violence-ridden America, No Lives Matter, seemingly.