SocraticGadfly

October 06, 2015

Bernie, Hillary and guns; #BerningTheFeel on a gun nut?

With the first Democratic presidential debate just a week away, momentum could shift from Bernie Sanders to .... to Hillary Clinton!

Why? It's a one-word answer: "guns."

The most recent mass shooting in Oregon has left Sanders vulnerable.

As documented here before, Sanders is ... well, IMO, he's a gun nut. Pure and simple. He voted against the Brady Bill and he voted in favor of immunizing gun makers from suits. Neither of these is a borderline issue. And favors loaded guns in National Parks.

(Update, Jan. 17, 2016: Sanders now says he would support overturning that law. That said, his caveat for small gun sellers is a fig leaf just as it's always been, and his claimed 2005 — and ongoing — opposition to child gun locks is tone-deaf, indeed. He could have supported a no-immunity bill with child locks as part of that bill. Beyond that, announcing this the day of the third Democratic presidential debate you're being Just.Another.Politician.

Here's the nut grafs:
Campaign aides said the decision was not a flip-flop, arguing that Sanders backed the 2005 law in part because of provisions that require child safety locks on guns and ban armor-piercing ammunition. 
"Those were important provisions that I did support," Sanders said in a statement.
 Umm, nice try, nice fail, at the caveating. And, actually, this makes things even worse.)

NBC, with a news roundup, notes that Clinton could have other favorable tailwinds after the Oct. 13 initial debate. The House's Benghazi committee, with would-be speaker Kevin McCarthy having already screwed its political pooch, meets later in October. With McCarthy's statement in mind, Clinton could be hitting softballs.

Clinton herself is letting the media do the labeling of Sanders, even as she the summer proposed new gun regulations. That includes the gun makers' liability issue.

The WaPost, meanwhile, reminds us that Sanders has a 24-year legislative history. He may have other votes, besides the ones above on guns, that Clinton will dredge up.

(On the other hand, Clinton's vote in favor of the Iraq War, which is at least tentatively linked to the current morass in Syria, leaves her 8-year Senate record also open. This is why governors often run for president in modern times.)

Sanders has shown himself a bit curmudgeonly in 1-person appearances; if cornered and provoked in debate, he could be very curmudgeonly. That may be in part due to him being the oldest declared candidate in a semi-geriatric Democratic field. (And, should JoePa Biden run, Sanders is more than a year older than him.)

Speaking of? Already this summer, I thought Biden's angling for the presidency was a bit creepy, on using emotions over his son's dying. Now, in that roundup link, NBC says that Biden was his own leaker to Maureen Dowd, lined out in detail by Politico. The general public may not take note, but Democratic insiders will. This is starting to sound like the 1998 plagiarizer Biden.

As for that debate? To be honest, I could see Sanders "pulling a Howard Dean." And, per friend Perry, if Hillary Clinton can stay 10 percent as newly loosened up as on Saturday Night Live from here on out, she could be a winner. (However, a NYT steno suggests that the same old Hillary will show up.)

October 05, 2015

#TPP — one reason a #wingnut replacing Boehner as Speaker might be nice

Left-neoliberals, and even a few supposed non-neoliberals, along with right-neoliberals, are doing huzzahs and handsprings over a group of Pacific Rim nations OKing the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

The deal as drafted supposedly addresses an earlier concern that China could back-door auto parts through South Korea. Let's see on that.

It still seems toothless, like previous such agreements, on labor rights, environmental rights, human rights and currency issues. (Well, currency wasn't quite such an issue with NAFTA or WTO, but is now, even if China's not part of the TPP. It's got a special track to join, and currency will be a worry with it.)

Why do I actually salute a possible wingnut replacing John Boehner as speaker of the House?

First, the Religious Right portion of wingnuts have, on paper at least, been concerned about human rights.

Second, many wingnuts have, in general, been skeptical about China's rise to power.

So, I must disagree with the likes of Chris Tomlinson.

First, this may, or may not, force China to "play by U.S. rules."

Second, even if it does force that, they're neoliberal rules which scoff at organized labor, don't protect the environment, and ignore human rights.

This is clearly the case with environmental issues. TPP, like NAFTA, as Canada has done, allows for various government lawsuits against the environmental regulations of other countries. Per the link, yes, it's possible that Paris climate talks will negotiate around that, but, if you really expect that to be the case, I have an unpolluted river in China to sell you.

Maybe the defunding or de-investment drive will gain momentum. It eventually did with South Africa, but South Africa is a lot smaller than the US, let alone the whole neoliberalized "West."

Third, we don't know all that it says! Kind of "fun," for the neoliberal insiders, to tout what they hide. "Fun" for neolib outsiders to tout "free trade" on blind faith, I guess.

Whether any or all of this is enough to derail the TPP in Congress or not, I don't know. Donald Trump's opposition may help.

Maybe a coalition of wingnuts and Bernie Sanders-led true liberals can kill this, assuming it needs killing. I don't hold my breath, though.

Speaking of opposition, let's see Hillary Clinton be a squish on this issue.

TX Progressives talk state polls, #climatechange, local elections, more

The Texas Progressive Alliance is happy to feel a little fall in the air , and that postseason baseball is here, as it brings you this week's roundup. You're reminded that the words are "Go Cards." It's also OK to root for one of Texas' two entrants.

Off the Kuff highlights a new poll showing a gap between what the people of Texas believe and what their government stands for.

Libby Shaw at Texas Kaos and contributing to Daily Kos is grateful to U.S. House Speaker John Boehner for revealing his Party's false prophets.  She is also grateful a Republican Presidential candidate's whopper about an abortion that did not happen is exposed.

SocraticGadfly cleans up the climate change trash that Erica Greider threw all over the ground.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme has had it with Republicans who treat workers like so much used tissue paper.

The Harris County Green Party endorsed four Democrats in Houston municipal elections, bypassing the only announced Green member who who was declared, in At Large 3.  PDiddie at Brains and Eggs says there's a story about that, but he's not telling it.

====================

And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

Grits notes that statewide judicial candidates no longer have to get petition signatures from each appellate district. He also has an excellent piece  on why the War on Drugs is NOT the primary reason for our massive increase in incarceration.

Tamara Tabo has some helpful hints for the Gaslamp and other (allegedly) racist nightclubs.

Lone Star Ma went pink in support of Planned Parenthood.

The TSTA Blog warns about bullies.

Eric Berger explains what the discovery of water on Mars means for the future of space exploration.

Both Egberto Willies and Millard Fillmore's Bathtub noted the Texas mother who read in her child's textbook that slavery had been redefined as immigration, and got the publisher to agree to revise it.

Why The Donald will fade

In a word: "Iowa."

In two words: "Religious Right."

In two more words: "Local organization."

(He's already fading a bit, though not much, as the poll makes clear; my argument is that he will fade even more.)

The two phrases are both important in Iowa, the first just on the GOP side, the second on both parties' plates.

Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee illustrate the former, from previous campaigns, especially Santorum.

Jimmy Carter is the exemplar of the second. Without the Iowa caucuses, and his local-level groundwork, he doesn't win in 1976, possibly.

The Donald's campaign, from what's publicly apparent, at least, strikes me as a very top-down big business type structure. Not geared for Iowa, but we'll see.

It seems to me that local caucus meetings will get either him, or ground-level representatives into making politically contradictory statements down the line.

And, despite some of his current appeal to tea party types, he's NOT a Religious Right type. In fact, his description of taking communion makes him sound like he's intermittently religiously observant.

If he can stay in the top three in Iowa, he might do well in New Hampshire, which allows crossover voting. But, he'll then struggle in Nevada and bomb in South Carolina.

As to who benefits, assuming I'm correct? I have no idea; Trump's constituency doesn't fit more professionalized definitions of who today's GOP is. Tea partiers who like him obviously haven't read his stance on social issues, if that's of importance to them.

Trump is saying he's in to win, and disavows notions that he'll cut and run if he starts sinking. Yeah, sure. Steve Forbes likely said something similar 20-plus years ago.

October 03, 2015

Meltdown in Marlin ISD, or TEA commish kneecapping?

Well, it looks like the school district of my former newspaper home is in a heap of trouble.

Unless Marlin ISD has big improvement by next July, Texas Education Agency Commissioner Michael Williams wants to shut it down, lock, stock and barrel.

There's several head-scratchers here.

First, a bit of background.

The TEA was threatening to close Marlin three or four years ago, as described here, due to district academic deficiencies. Then it hired a new superintendent, Michael Steck, who'd already done some degree of turnaround in his first spot, at Veribest ISD, where he was a finalist for superintendent of the year.

The middle school and high school at Marlin got off the TEA schneid, but the elementary school, where the district's problems were by far the worst, remained academically unacceptable, and so the district did as a whole.

The first link, from the Waco Trib, seems to have little information from the period after Steck was hired, including that it notes a warning letter from former TEA Commish Robert Scott back in 2011 with this quote:

“The monitor I appointed has been met with resistance and a lack of cooperation as she has attempted to implement her changes,” states a letter from Robert Scott, commissioner of education in 2011.
The fact is that I saw no such resistance after Steck got there. And neither did TEA monitor Jamie Morris (at least for public consumption), the last monitor to remain in place after the state reduced most of its oversight at the middle and high schools.

I'm not quite saying the Trib was doing a whack job; I don't think it was. But, while I know Marlin ISD still has problems, the Trib's Stephanie Butts didn't lay out much of a timeline of progress that has been made.

Indeed, the paper that serves Natalia ISD, where Steck went next, notes that improvement:
“He was recruited to take the position of Marlin ISD Superintendent by the Regional Education Center and TEA,” (Natalia) Board President Eric Smith said. “When he took over there, it was scheduled to be closed by the state within months due to their extremely poor academic status. They had seven state monitors on-site full time. Steck asked TEA for one year to improve academics before closing the district. Three years later all monitors are gone, except one TEA representative and things are headed in the right direction. Although Steck admitted improvements have been achieved, there is still work to be done.”
Still work to be done.

Steck's successor in Marlin, Michael Seabolt, who started there in June, discusses that in the Trib piece:
Seabolt said he already has made drastic changes to both teacher training and student instruction. 
Teachers are now required to teach using the Texas Essential Knowledge and Skills curriculum, which wasn’t previously required, and received professional development on teaching literacy during the summer. Some teachers hadn’t seen any state accountability tests, he said. 
“They really had no idea of the rigor needed or what was being tested, in particular in reading,” Seabolt said. 
OK, so, did Steck do that much, or not? I know the elementary principal, Wes Brown, fairly well. (The comments are referring to the elementary.)
Surely Morris would have said something if major issues with teacher training still existed. Was Steck that far off? Is Seabolt claiming credit for things that Steck already had in place?

Anyway, I shot Brown an email, politely noting my interpretation of the Trib's piece and a couple of other things. We'll see if he responds. (As of Monday late afternoon, no.) The district is having a "save our schools" meeting; we'll see what turnout there is.

Update, Oct. 8: Turnout was very good, the Trib says.

Per the second link, Williams says state law requires the revocation of accreditation. Per this piece, he also says that the district failed to file timely appeals on the ratings. 

That, too, could cut two ways. Either some things got lost in the shuffle of superintendent changes or else Steck, burned out, out of magic wands or sleights of hand, hightailed it knowing that Williams was going to torpedo the ship in Marlin anyway.

Update, Oct. 9: A follow-up story by the Trib (same reporter on all) has the same "lacuna" problem as the original story on recent superintendent history. I've emailed Trib Editor Steve Boggs already and have yet to hear back from him. I Tweeted Butts now, giving her enough hints to work on filling this lacuna, and finding out what else comes up — if she wants to and Boggs wants her to.

Update, Oct. 13: Butts said she left messages with Steck, so he had his chance to comment. Again, there could be multiple reasons he didn't. He may just have "moved on," or he may have been turd-polishing. And, he's old enough, that Devine ISD could be his last pre-retirement stop, in which case, he wouldn't care what Seabolt is insinuating about him.

Update, Oct. 23: Seabolt has called Marlin Elementary instruction from before he arrived "Crayola curriculum." If he's even partially right, that explains who Steck wouldn't talk to Butts and Brown wouldn't talk to me. As for TEA monitor Jamie Morris, was she that bedazzled?

October 02, 2015

The truth on #conservative #SJW ideas and #climatechange, vs. Erica Greider of Texas Monthly

Using the term "philosobabble" as a philosophy-related counterpart to "psychobabble," Texas Monthly's Erica Greider engaged injust that earlier this week.

I quote from the third graf of her "Skeptics and Scare Stories":
For the record, though I’m not a scientist, I don’t doubt the scientific consensus that climate change is real and anthropogenic. At the same time, I don’t often feel oppressed by other people’s metaphysical and epistemological premises, and I rarely see a need to litigate such questions before policy discussions.
Beyond philosobabble in general, this did turn on a light bulb for me.

I had never thought before that conservatives could be labeled with the "social justice warrior" moniker often used to tag vapid, pseudo-intellectual thought of sections of the New New Left.

But,  there it is and there you have it. If some New Lefter were talking about whether or not they "feel oppressed by other people’s metaphysical and epistemological premises," we'd be on that like white on SJW rice.

Let's go on:
I … can’t recall asking any elected officials if they believe in anthropogenic climate change. I’ve asked people why they don’t believe in climate change. … But I’m hard-pressed to think of a scenario where I would find it relevant to ask Greg Abbott whether he believes in anthropogenic climate change.
Really? You wouldn't ask why this motivates him, both as AG and now as governor, to continue to sue the federal government? You wouldn't ask how much this is behind his infamous "I wake up and sue Obama" mantra? You won't ask why he keeps doing this even though he loses more than he wins and is the state's chief waster of taxpayer money, despite his claims, AND yours, to be fiscal conservatives?

Wouldn't you also ask him why, per the NewYork Times, he's now in the minority, not among Americans, not among Republicans, though he is in both counts, but, why he's in a minority of self-described conservative Republicans? 

See, that's just being a bad, or lazy, reporter. Or being an opiner/pundit while pretending to be a reporter.

And, it's not limited to climate change.

From earlier in the article.
Occasionally, for example, I’ve had occasion to ask legislators if they believe that human life begins at conception. I’ve never asked any of them how old they think the planet is; I don’t see why that question would even come up during the course of reporting.
And, again, why not?

Given that the so-called "intelligent design" movement has allies in the Texas Legislature; given that the State Board of Education has a history of trying to import bad science as well as bad history into Texas textbooks, you don't think this question would ever come up in the course of reporting on something like teaching evolution in public schools?

Back to climate change, though. Creating straw men may be a tool for a pundit, albeit not a good tool. But, it’s not a tool for a reporter. One can be both; it’s part of the community newspaper world.

However, one must know which mindset to use and when. Therefore, talking about reporting, not opining on this issue, while creating straw men like this:
Slowing climate change, after all, isn’t the easiest task imaginable. It would require drastic reductions in total global emissions of greenhouse gases; that would require most of the world’s industrialized nations to commit to major changes in their current consumption and production—course corrections that most countries would find costly and painful. Denouncing American conservatives for driving their gas-guzzlers all over the common good of humankind? That’s comparatively easy.
Is unacceptable.

Greider talks about the moral side:
According to many environmentalists, journalists who fail to ask such questions are being wantonly negligent about their responsibilities to the public interest.
It’s actually not that. It’s a question of journalistic ethics. And, you’ve shown that you don’t have much, if any.

So, let’s get back to that New York Times story, as it would inform you, Erica, how to actually do reporting on this issue:
North Carolina businessman Jay Faison and the Republican pollsters said that in order to avoid that characterization, Republicans need to move beyond questioning and start offering solutions.
Problem is, most Republican respondents reject regulatory solutions. They’d probably, even more, reject carbon taxes and carbon tariffs.

Which means they’re like Republicans on health care. They want to kill Obamacare, which is flawed in some ways, badly flawed in others, but which is a step forward compared to what we had before in a number of ways.

They don’t offer any solutions for a replacement, though. They just want to kill it.

That said, the same 54-percent majority supports a carbon tax — if rebated.

But, that’s either ignorance or a red herring. Rebating carbon taxes would take an additional bureaucratic infrastructure. And, if rebated to companies spewing carbon, not consumers, would eliminate the carbon tax being applied anyway. It would be robbing Peter to pay Peter. Duh.

Speaking of regulations, Greider then erects another straw man:
But if a supermajority of Texas is open to the idea of Congress (Congress!) passing regulations (regulations!) about energy production (energy production!) in order to reduce global warming, I don’t understand how environmentalists can, in good conscience, insist on the premise that the critical barrier to international action is rampant denialism about whether global warming is even real.
First, that “if” is just that. She knows no such supermajority exists.  And I don’t know why “energy production” is repeated in the parentheses.

Maybe the disinvestment drive will continue to gather enough steam until it hoists carbon polluters by a capitalist petard. Or an investment drive in publicly traded renewables companies, since renewables have now passed all fossil fuels combined in installations.

Second, why a "supermajority"? Is it because, if Faison is right, a simple majority already exists, even in Tejas?

Third, she knows that denialism lite 1, and denialism lite 2, exist, as well as full on denialism.

Denialism lite 1 is that, yes, humans have “some part” in global warming, but, it’s not that much.

Denialism lite 2, related, is that AGW’s effects are nothing to worry about, that humans have always changed the climate, etc.

But, I want to get back one last time to the conservative SJW angle. Between exchanges on Twitter, and even more, an exchange of comments on her blog post, she comes off to me as being at least as narcissistic as any new left type SJW. Per my skeptical and atheist friends, yep, I'd rank her in the same territory as Rebecca Watson.


And, yes, I wanted that long of a header, and hashtags, and all, since she thankfully made my light bulb come on about conservative SJWs.

Hat tip to Off the Kuff for bringing this particular stupidity to my attention.

(Sidebar: Her long history of wrongness includes believing that Rick Perry had an actual Texas miracle, when what he really has was lots of illegal immigrants. And created Big Gummint jobs. And, has a dysfunctional government.)