Various progressive types have been saying, to various degrees, that our Compromiser-in-Chief (a couple of Facebook friends think "Dear Leader" has gotten too snarky or too creepy, so sad) did less than he could have done on the fiscal slope compromise.
I certainly do.
Let's riff on my headline.
Obama gave away leverage in two big ways and areas — the Alternative Minimum Tax and the debt ceiling.
On the AMT, it was good tax policy, true, but it was horrible political policy. The AMT needed to be indexed to inflation, that's the good tax policy. It didn't need to be indexed unless part of a bigger deal; that's the bad political policy.
The leverage lost there is small potatoes, though, to not making a debt ceiling fix part of that "bigger deal."
Given that 2/3 of House Republicans voted against a bill that was a slam dunk in the Senate and where Obama had had leverage, up to that moment, he's likely to get his head handed to him on a platter in mid-February, or his ass kicked.
No, I take that back.
The Compromiser-in-Chief will hand his own head to the House GOP in advance and therefore We the People will get our asses kicked.
More proof? The first act of the new GOP House? A move to ... wait for it ... repeal Obamacare.
January 03, 2013
Texas is No. 1 — in mercury
Per the Environmental Integrity Project, Texas power plants are collectively No. 1 in the nation in mercury emissions.
And, worse, they're individually No. 1 — and Nos. 3-5, too:
1. Luminant Generation, Martin Lake Steam Electric Station & Lignite Mine in Rusk County, TX (1,501 lbs. of mercury emissions);
2. Southern Co., Gaston Steam Plant in Shelby, AL (1,244 lbs. of mercury emissions);
3. Luminant Generation, Big Brown Steam Electric Station & Lignite Mine in Freestone County, TX (1,240 lbs. of mercury emissions);
4. Luminant Generation, Monticello Steam Electric Station & Lignite Mine in Titus County, TX (911 lbs. of mercury emissions);
5. Luminant Generation, Sandow Steam Electric Station in Milam County, TX (841 lbs. of mercury emissions).
You'll also note another common factor — Luminant, the former generating arm of TXU.
Full report (PDF) is here.
And, worse, they're individually No. 1 — and Nos. 3-5, too:
1. Luminant Generation, Martin Lake Steam Electric Station & Lignite Mine in Rusk County, TX (1,501 lbs. of mercury emissions);
2. Southern Co., Gaston Steam Plant in Shelby, AL (1,244 lbs. of mercury emissions);
3. Luminant Generation, Big Brown Steam Electric Station & Lignite Mine in Freestone County, TX (1,240 lbs. of mercury emissions);
4. Luminant Generation, Monticello Steam Electric Station & Lignite Mine in Titus County, TX (911 lbs. of mercury emissions);
5. Luminant Generation, Sandow Steam Electric Station in Milam County, TX (841 lbs. of mercury emissions).
You'll also note another common factor — Luminant, the former generating arm of TXU.
Full report (PDF) is here.
January 02, 2013
Al Jazeera + Al Gore = Al Air America?
No, jokes and multilingual puns aside, it's serious. Al Jazeera TV wants to buy Current, Al Gore's cable network.
And why not?
Per the story, it gets Al Jazeera plus current highly limited US broadcasting of its own network. And, Current is currently making some dinero. And, present editorial staff at Current might benefit from piggybacking in the Middle East on Al Jazeera there.
And, that said, contra the Yahoo story, or updating what shouldn't need updating, in 2011, Dave Marash, former DC anchor for Al Jazeera, said it was NOT anti-American, according to his Wikipedia page.
Al Jazeera plus Current could provide something better than originally hoped for on Air America, too.
Plus, the Pam Gellar type Islamophobe wingnuts would shit bricks royally, too. That's reason enough for this merger.
And, beyond this, why shouldn't we have more opportunities to see Al Jazeera? Screw Comcast et al.
Or screw Time Warner, which dropped Current just after the takeover.
And why not?
Per the story, it gets Al Jazeera plus current highly limited US broadcasting of its own network. And, Current is currently making some dinero. And, present editorial staff at Current might benefit from piggybacking in the Middle East on Al Jazeera there.
And, that said, contra the Yahoo story, or updating what shouldn't need updating, in 2011, Dave Marash, former DC anchor for Al Jazeera, said it was NOT anti-American, according to his Wikipedia page.
Al Jazeera plus Current could provide something better than originally hoped for on Air America, too.
Plus, the Pam Gellar type Islamophobe wingnuts would shit bricks royally, too. That's reason enough for this merger.
And, beyond this, why shouldn't we have more opportunities to see Al Jazeera? Screw Comcast et al.
Or screw Time Warner, which dropped Current just after the takeover.
Craig Biggio — anti #roiding 'message' man in Hall of Fame 1st shot?
First, you may ask why I call Houston Astros great Craig Biggio a "message" man?
Simple.
The Astros' long-term second baseman (and sometime outfielder and career-starting catcher) is as squeaky clean as Dale Murphy, including on the steroid-using issue, and with better stats on the sabermetric side and much better on the counting side.
First, the counting stats.
Any regular baseball fan knows about his 3,060 hits. Add in his career 668 doubles, fifth-best all time. Toss in a career 291 HRs, arguably pretty decent production from largely a second baseman.
Add in a few Gold Gloves in his career.
Now, top it with the fact that he's never been rumored to be a roider.
Result?
On the predictions side, I say he gets in this year.
Older baseball writers still like those counting stats, and the ones that want to send a message to Bonds, Clemens and others have their perfect "vehicle."
So, I've answered "yes" to two of my three rhetorical questions about Hall candidates — 1. He will get in and 2. Not just "eventually" but this year.
But, I have three such questions, and the third is — should he be in there?
And, counting stats aside, sabermetrics has a bit more caution.
Let's look at my basic go-to stat on position players, first: OPS+.
Biggio has a surprisingly low 112. My cutoff for HOFers is 110. Of course, he was compiling his OPS+ in the height of the steroid era, so maybe he deserves a bit of slack.
Behind this? His OPS was only .796. And, while he walked a decent amount, he struck out a lot for a guy with medium to medium-high power, but not huge power.
Second is Wins Above Average, where he's only at 29.1.
I'm still developing a bit of "feel" for WAA and what a HOF cutoff should be. But my tentative answer is 30, and Biggio falls just short. Related to that, his WAR of 62.1, while good, is not outstanding.
Again, maybe we cut him a bit of slack over roiding competition, but how much?
He does rank a solid +50 on runs by positional scarcity.
So, I would say he should be in there. As for "this year" vs. "eventually," I will say that he probably, pretty solidly, should be in there this year. And, I'm in general a "small Hall" guy, not like the "fluffers" named Jim Caple, David Schoenfield, etc. at ESPN, and a few others. (ESPN is far and away the most egregious, though.)
That said, how Biggio does will probably be a baseline for Jeff Kent and his chances, as the two are fairly similar.
Now, a little background to my Hall of Fame blogging —
I am a "small Hall" guy. In fact, I think there's plenty of people we should vote back OUT of Cooperstown. Here's some pitchers, and some batters, looking just at the modern baseball era, who need the boot.
Oh, and while you're here, please vote in my poll.
And, click the "MLB Hall of Fame" tag for more on other candidates on this year's ballot and my thoughts.
Simple.
The Astros' long-term second baseman (and sometime outfielder and career-starting catcher) is as squeaky clean as Dale Murphy, including on the steroid-using issue, and with better stats on the sabermetric side and much better on the counting side.
First, the counting stats.
Any regular baseball fan knows about his 3,060 hits. Add in his career 668 doubles, fifth-best all time. Toss in a career 291 HRs, arguably pretty decent production from largely a second baseman.
Add in a few Gold Gloves in his career.
Now, top it with the fact that he's never been rumored to be a roider.
Result?
On the predictions side, I say he gets in this year.
Older baseball writers still like those counting stats, and the ones that want to send a message to Bonds, Clemens and others have their perfect "vehicle."
So, I've answered "yes" to two of my three rhetorical questions about Hall candidates — 1. He will get in and 2. Not just "eventually" but this year.
But, I have three such questions, and the third is — should he be in there?
And, counting stats aside, sabermetrics has a bit more caution.
Let's look at my basic go-to stat on position players, first: OPS+.
Biggio has a surprisingly low 112. My cutoff for HOFers is 110. Of course, he was compiling his OPS+ in the height of the steroid era, so maybe he deserves a bit of slack.
Behind this? His OPS was only .796. And, while he walked a decent amount, he struck out a lot for a guy with medium to medium-high power, but not huge power.
Second is Wins Above Average, where he's only at 29.1.
I'm still developing a bit of "feel" for WAA and what a HOF cutoff should be. But my tentative answer is 30, and Biggio falls just short. Related to that, his WAR of 62.1, while good, is not outstanding.
Again, maybe we cut him a bit of slack over roiding competition, but how much?
He does rank a solid +50 on runs by positional scarcity.
So, I would say he should be in there. As for "this year" vs. "eventually," I will say that he probably, pretty solidly, should be in there this year. And, I'm in general a "small Hall" guy, not like the "fluffers" named Jim Caple, David Schoenfield, etc. at ESPN, and a few others. (ESPN is far and away the most egregious, though.)
That said, how Biggio does will probably be a baseline for Jeff Kent and his chances, as the two are fairly similar.
Now, a little background to my Hall of Fame blogging —
I am a "small Hall" guy. In fact, I think there's plenty of people we should vote back OUT of Cooperstown. Here's some pitchers, and some batters, looking just at the modern baseball era, who need the boot.
Oh, and while you're here, please vote in my poll.
And, click the "MLB Hall of Fame" tag for more on other candidates on this year's ballot and my thoughts.
Lee Smith for Hall? - closers are overrated; sorry #stlcards fans
As I do my most extensive set of posts yet on potential Major League Baseball Hall of Fame candidates, it's time for a look at Lee Smith.
First, for those who haven't read other baseball-related posts of mine, I'm a definite Cardinals fan.
Second, I saw Big Lee set what was then the National League single-season saves record in 1991. And, with those being among Montreal Expos "home" games moved on the road because of falling Olympic Stadium concrete, I got box seats less than 30 rows from the Cardinal bullpen on the first-base line.
So, I can say Lee Smith is physically imposing.
I can also look at his HOF stats and say that he's not imposing career-wise. As is the case with most closers, ESPN-type overrating aside.
Career WAR of just 27.9 and WAA of 13.8 rule him out right there. So, too does the fact that he can't meet one of my two baseline hurdles. His WHIP of 1.256 is technically above my 1.25 cutoff for pitchers.
Now, he doesn't quite have the momentum of a Jack Morris, but he does have a couple more years of eligibility left. Hopefully, we won't need quite so much an anti-Lee campaign. But, he doesn't belong there.
Now, a little background to my Hall of Fame blogging —
I am a "small Hall" guy. In fact, I think there's plenty of people we should vote back OUT of Cooperstown. Here's some pitchers, and some batters, looking just at the modern baseball era, who need the boot.
Oh, and while you're here, please vote in my poll.
And, click the "MLB Hall of Fame" tag for more on other candidates on this year's ballot and my thoughts.
First, for those who haven't read other baseball-related posts of mine, I'm a definite Cardinals fan.
Second, I saw Big Lee set what was then the National League single-season saves record in 1991. And, with those being among Montreal Expos "home" games moved on the road because of falling Olympic Stadium concrete, I got box seats less than 30 rows from the Cardinal bullpen on the first-base line.
So, I can say Lee Smith is physically imposing.
I can also look at his HOF stats and say that he's not imposing career-wise. As is the case with most closers, ESPN-type overrating aside.
Career WAR of just 27.9 and WAA of 13.8 rule him out right there. So, too does the fact that he can't meet one of my two baseline hurdles. His WHIP of 1.256 is technically above my 1.25 cutoff for pitchers.
Now, he doesn't quite have the momentum of a Jack Morris, but he does have a couple more years of eligibility left. Hopefully, we won't need quite so much an anti-Lee campaign. But, he doesn't belong there.
Now, a little background to my Hall of Fame blogging —
I am a "small Hall" guy. In fact, I think there's plenty of people we should vote back OUT of Cooperstown. Here's some pitchers, and some batters, looking just at the modern baseball era, who need the boot.
Oh, and while you're here, please vote in my poll.
And, click the "MLB Hall of Fame" tag for more on other candidates on this year's ballot and my thoughts.
January 01, 2013
Fred McGriff - will Crime Dog take a bite at the Hall of Fame?
There's plenty of good candidates, steroid users aside, on this year's Hall of Fame ballot.
Fred McGriff will ot jump past Jeff Bagwell or Tim Raines, whether or not they or Craig Biggio get to 75 percent or not.
Now, what about his eventual chances?
On the plus side, a career OPS+ of 136 is good, solid. More than 1,500 RBIs looks good, too.
But, other sabermetrics undercut him. His oWAR is only a touch above 50, low for a 1B. His WAA is even worse, respectively, less than 20. And his dWAR is horrible. So, his runs by positional scarcity is way in the negative.
So, he's not really deserving.
Plus, as one of those players who played in several different cities in his career, he'll not have a single loyal core of BBWAA writers to support his case. That's part of why Blyleven took so long to get in, and McGriff isn't a big-name broadcaster, unlike Bert.
So, here's the trio:
1. He shouldn't be in the HOF;
2. He definitely won't be this year;
3. He probably won't ever be.
Now, a little background to my Hall of Fame blogging —
I am a "small Hall" guy. In fact, I think there's plenty of people we should vote back OUT of Cooperstown. Here's some pitchers, and some batters, looking just at the modern baseball era, who need the boot.
Oh, and while you're here, please vote in my poll.
Fred McGriff will ot jump past Jeff Bagwell or Tim Raines, whether or not they or Craig Biggio get to 75 percent or not.
Now, what about his eventual chances?
On the plus side, a career OPS+ of 136 is good, solid. More than 1,500 RBIs looks good, too.
But, other sabermetrics undercut him. His oWAR is only a touch above 50, low for a 1B. His WAA is even worse, respectively, less than 20. And his dWAR is horrible. So, his runs by positional scarcity is way in the negative.
So, he's not really deserving.
Plus, as one of those players who played in several different cities in his career, he'll not have a single loyal core of BBWAA writers to support his case. That's part of why Blyleven took so long to get in, and McGriff isn't a big-name broadcaster, unlike Bert.
So, here's the trio:
1. He shouldn't be in the HOF;
2. He definitely won't be this year;
3. He probably won't ever be.
Now, a little background to my Hall of Fame blogging —
I am a "small Hall" guy. In fact, I think there's plenty of people we should vote back OUT of Cooperstown. Here's some pitchers, and some batters, looking just at the modern baseball era, who need the boot.
Oh, and while you're here, please vote in my poll.
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