Buckle your seatbelt for a decade of fun

That’s the word from JPMorgan analysts, who say the current U.S. financial-sector problems will take a decade to shake out.

“We had the NASDAQ, we had LTCM, we had the various forms of emerging-market crises in the ’90s, we had the real estate crisis of 20 years ago: In most of these the direct impact on the behavior of the parties involved lasted more than 10 years,” Jan Loeys told Reuter. “It looks like it takes a generation for the memory to fade and for the same mistakes to be made again.”

Loeys expects financial sector regulation to increase. Obviously, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson disagrees with that need.

The question is, will the next president change that mindset, and how much? Also, assuming the European Union implements some real reform, will we find out in the next decade who’s the dog and who’s the tail on the world economy?

Meanwhile, Wachovica dropped $400 mil in the first quarter and the head of major reinsurer Gen Re, Joseph Brandon, resigned, reportedly under federal pressure.

This baby is not close to being over yet.

The American beatdown could hit $100 million

Earlier this week, American Airlines CEO Gerald Arpey said the cost of last week’s shutdown of its MD-80 fleet could run in the “tens of millions.”

Well, it looks like he was on the low side by a whole order of magnitude.

Mike Boyd, an airline consultant in Evergreen, Colo., predicts that direct costs to American will top $100 million, including lost ticket revenue, hotel rooms and food vouchers for stranded passengers, overtime pay for employees, and the additional cost of getting crew members to the right places.

Here are some of those costs:

American also was giving $500 travel vouchers to an unspecified number of inconvenienced passengers and putting some travelers up in hotels. There also could be transportation costs to and from hotels (and) extra overtime for employees.

Late last week, the stock for American parent AMR dipped below $10 a share. If Boyd is right, it’s not going anywhere north soon.

And, that’s not all. From the first link:

Boyd figures the airline stands to lose another $150 million in future bookings by travelers so angry that they either refuse to fly or choose other carriers.

Meanwhile, The Dallas Morning News is hypocritical enough to jump on the FAA’s back.

Chalmers Johnson agrees Repugs and Dems alike

Because of that, a new column he has in Good magazine is titled, “It’s Time to Flee the Country.” You Clintonistas talking about experience and Obamiacs touting The Politics of Change™, get over it. Chalmers, the author of “Blowback” and “Nemesis,” among other books, is blunt:

I see very little hope for America regardless of who is elected in November. All the candidates remaining in the race have said they will not “cut and run” in Iraq and Afghanistan. One may speculate that once in office, one or another candidate may be more flexible, but this is actually unlikely. The Republicans have swallowed both wars hook, line, and sinker, and the Democrats know that if they propose any sort of pullout they will be labeled “defeatists” and blamed for the miserable outcome.

He notes that in addition to the quasi-bipartisan moral bankruptcy on Iraq, there’s also our fiscal bankruptcy. That, too, he says, has a fair share of bipartisanship:

The Bush government talks about the burst housing bubble but says nothing about the obscene military budgets that are driving our entire economy deeper into debt. It will probably take a major financial crisis on par with the Great Depression to reorient our economy in a more productive direction. Unfortunately, I don’t hear any viable candidate talking like FDR.

Yes, Obama and Clinton, he’s talking about you, too, not McCain.

In another essay, he notes that, with the war in Iraq ongoing, we spend more than $1 trillion a year on alleged “defense spending.” And, yes, too many Democrats, even if they oppose, or quasi-oppose, the war in Iraq, will still support too much of that spending.

Now, that said, Johnson’s not saying that “unviable” candidates don’t have real ideas. But, Americans in general are too easy to get themselves suckered by vacuous promises, so “unviable” candidates don’t have a shot at becoming viable.

He then gets back to the title in his conclusion:

In short, I think our ship of state is heading for a mammoth iceberg. Just as many people in 1930s Germany were, I’m too old to leave and will probably go down with the ship. But if I were younger, I would be thinking of bailing out. Vote, if you must, in November, but don’t expect that things will change much, let alone get better.

I don’t “must,” except, possibly, for the Green candidate. I hear you, Chalmers.

And, I’ve applied for jobs in Canada. No luck so far.

Naturalization the latest DHS screwup

Legal immigrants are finding itever-harder to get naturalized after they file citizenship applications.

Imagine getting denied citizenship, and threatened with deportation, for reasons like this:
• A criminal charge from years ago that was pled down to misdemeanor level;
• A husband and wife, both from the Philippines, whose parents got them green cards identifying them as singles, not knowing they had secretly married;
• Forgetting to update your home address;
• Not showing up for fingerprinting, even though you’re a quadriplegic and unable to leave home.

That’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement, part of that wonderful Department of Homeland Security that both Republicans and Democrats wanted, and that was cobbled together on the fly.

News briefs – hotter women make better marriages, Hadley Olympian lies, Jimmy Carter, ‘legal ethics’

Want a more stable marriage?

If you’re a man, marry a woman better looking than you. Whether it’s more attractive men having more roaming eyes, less attractive men supporting their hottie wives out of gratitude or what, a new study shows a marriage with the wife better-looking than the hubby is usually a strong one.

Bush NSA sets up straw man on Beijing boycott

Stephen Hadley, Bush’s national security advisor, claims foreign want Bush to boycott the Beijing Olympics opening ceremony in lieu of more substantial action. (As if the Bush Administration were taking any substantial action whether it includes or doesn’t include a boycott.)

”I think unfortunately a lot of countries say, ‘Well, if we say that we are not going to the opening ceremonies, we've check the box on Tibet.’ That’s a cop-out. … The whole issue of opening ceremonies is a nonissue,” Hadley said. … “If other countries are concerned about Tibet, they ought to do what we are doing through quiet diplomacy, send the message clearly to the Chinese that this is an opportunity with the whole world watching, to show that they take into account and are determined to treat their citizens with dignity and respect. They would put pressure on the Chinese authorities quietly to meet with representatives of the Dalai Lama and use this as an opportunity to help resolve that situation.

Boy, you can tell BushCo is on its last legs and in its last days, can’t you? They don’t even put any effort into the lies.

Cons and neocons ready to barbecue Carter again

Former President Jimmy Carter, engaged in a quaint idea called “common sense,” says he is likely to visit Hamas on an upcoming Middle East visit. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has already started the ball rolling by once again calling Hamas a “terrorist organization.” Yeah, Condi? Well, we regularly met with Salvadorean and Guatemalan right-wing terrorists in the days of the Reagan Administration and your beloved Cold War.

Legal “ethics” keep man on ice 26 years

Alton Logan has sat in Illinois prisons for 26 years because of a murder jhe didn’t commit. Two lawyers knew who had committed the murder, because he was their client, but they said for all these years that attorney-client privilege kept them from speaking.

But, as the story says, the privilege isn’t absolute, and in most states, does NOT cover when serious bodily harm is involved. Even if Logan wasn’t on death row, sitting in the stir for 26 years, at the risk of gang violence, eating crappy prison food that could contribute to early cardiovascular problems or diabetes, is serious bodily harm in my book. And, after James Wilson was convicted for the crime and had exhausted all appeals, I don’t think it would be “ratting him out” any more to reveal what the said.

Hypocrisy alert – Lots of Clinton and a little Obama on trade

It’s not the first article, but I hope it’s not the last one, either, as long as both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama keep lying (her the worse but him no slouch about their stance on trade pacts. The LA Times has a good takedown.

Since 2001, Clinton has backed pacts with Jordan, Chile, Singapore, Australia, Morocco and Oman that were opposed by numerous labor, farming and environmental groups concerned that the deals contained insufficient safeguards for American workers and consumers.

As recently as November, Clinton supported a free trade agreement negotiated by the Bush administration with Peru. …

Time and again over the last seven years, Clinton backed trade deals that other lawmakers rejected.

When the Bush administration in 2003 pushed for congressional approval of bilateral agreements with Singapore and Chile, more than 30 senators, including several Republicans, voted against each.

See the story for her hair-splitting “then and now” comments.

But, not so fast there with Pennsylvania voters, Obama:

Obama also has backed bilateral trade agreements since he came to the Senate in 2005, and like Clinton has stepped up his criticism of trade deals more recently. Unlike her, he has not urged a trade deal moratorium.

Both of them get enough money from enough big donors that neither one will truly tackle trade issues. Neither will truly fund trade-lost job retraining assistance.