The first one is that polls are shit, especially as push polls in disguise. In the Democratic Senate primary, first, many late polls had Jasmine Crockett ahead, though a few tilted for James Talarico. And, Talarico won with room to spare. Said polls also showed Kenny Boy Paxton well ahead of Big John Cornyn, leading Kenny Boy to claim he could win outright. Rather, not only did he not win outright, Cornyn took a plurality.
Even worse, on the GOP side, all the most recent polls showed Sid Miller holding on to his Ag Commissioner seat vs Nate Sheets. In reality, Sheets topped him.
The second reality is that media thin-outs continue to affect polling. The Trib's last piece on how Miller seemed to have a big lead was based on polling done before Strangeabbott, on top of all others, had endorsed Sheets. So, it was out of date.
The third is that The Donald's coattails mean less and less. See "Miller, Sid."
The fourth is that even Strangeabbott's coattails, complete with maneuverings, aren't always so long. Look at the Dreamy Don Huffines crushing Kelly Hancock.
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Next, questions.
Will Talarico continue his R.F. O'Rourke 2.0 strategery and go mosey to Muleshoe in the general? (Yes.)
(I do have to laugh, then call bullshit, with Shitheads on Shitter claiming "Bolsheviks and Marxists" are behind Talarico. No, they're not. But, identitarian politics is — and talking about transgender abortion needs when gender is not sex, and when you've previously claimed that Luke 1 and the Annunciation is about reproductive choice, indicates he'll double down on identitarian politics, especially when it ties to reproductive issues.)
What will he say about Iran? Or Zionism? (As little as possible.)
How much on board will Crockett be with any personal support? (She'll be mid.)
Cornyn or Paxton in the runoff? Does Kenny Boy finally get the kiss from The Donald? (I'd give 60-40 odds on Paxton winning, no idea on The Donald.)
Will the Trib or anybody else give any love to Greens and Libertarians in the general?
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