"Fixing" the Denver Nuggets: Trade MPJ?

In a sense, no, they don't need to be fixed, but in another, they do.

It's Kevin O'Connor, so take it with a grain of salt. But, he's got good insights in general for what the Nuggets have to do next year and years ahead. And, much of it falls on head coach Mike Malone. And, some of it falls on Calvin Booth. A fair chunk of it falls on both being on the same page:

Booth and Malone had different approaches to the season that often clashed. Booth was investing in the future, and Malone was thinking entirely about the present. And in the end, nobody won. The Nuggets failed to advance to the conference finals and the rookies didn’t get developmental time they needed. Booth’s plan could still work out in the long run if his draft picks improve. But with the Nuggets already planning their summer vacations, it looks like he whiffed on a valuable chance to win it all again. ...

Maybe the Nuggets had to lose this season for Booth and Malone to get on the same track long term. But all season, Denver lacked organizational alignment, a worrisome reality for a franchise that just won its first title with a historic player who’s still in his prime and who this season won his third MVP in four years.

Good insights.

First, Calvin Booth has little wiggle room. The Kroenke family clearly hasn't given him explicit permission to blow past the second apron on the new, stricter salary cap.

Related? Jeff Green is old enough, and his per-36 dropped this year anyway, that they should have been able to do OK without him. Bruce Brown? Probably could have used him, but not at $22M a year.

That said, in game 7 against the T-Wolves? Minny's bench only played 9 more minutes than Denver's. That's a difference, but not huge. And, when the oldest player on the floor, Conley, blows by Michael Porter Jr at the start of the second half, that's bad. (Let's remember that both teams rested in that locker room at halftime, then Minnesota blew the doors off from the start in the third quarter. Also, hold on to the MPJ thoughts.)

While Malone should be on the same page as Booth, and recognize there's not a lot of team wiggle room? He holds the trump cards, O'Connor notes:

The pressure this summer is undoubtedly on Booth, though. Malone inked a long-term extension in November through the 2026-27 season. Jokic is signed through 2027-28. Meanwhile, Booth’s contract is up after the 2024-25 season

That's big.

Finally, getting better three-point shooters is important. Also, per the end of the piece, getting Malone to have more 3-ball shooting with the players he has is itself important.

Another Ringer piece, talking about draft needs across the league, notes the Nuggets were last in 3-ball attempts last year. That, too, is ultimately on Malone. Again:

“I think Malone will have to play them. Hunter and Julian, these guys can manufacture points on their own. And I like the balance between Jamal and Jalen, who has been basically Joker Lite wherever he’s been. What happens when Jalen goes out there with Jokic and the ball’s moving around with both of those guys? It’s going to be like San Antonio with Boris Diaw.”

I get trying to get home-court advantage throughout the West, but when you're competing with two other teams, not one other? That's tough. Malone IMO should have used every opportunity up to the ASG to assess players. And, I think that's imperative, no ifs, ands or buts this year.

As far as Booth's lack of wiggle room? The Nuggets are already over the first apron. Resigning Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will surely put them over the second apron. At the first apron, already, they can't do a sign-and-trade, as the biggest deal. They can't go above the midlevel exemption and other things. The second apron makes it worse. Among other things, you can't use multiple players in a salary match on a trade. Has to be one-on-one, at least on your end. (You can take two back, but only send one, I think.) Midlevel exemption is out, period.

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Update: At a recent presser, after being eliminate, Nuggets VP Josh Kroenke, with both Booth and Malone, talked about the challenges, and I think made it clear for Malone:

"I think one important footnote about this group," Kroenke said, "is the core of this team was assembled under a different CBA. We drafted, we developed and we built this team under a different set of rules. Those rules have kind of changed on the fly. ...

"We don't think we're far off, But there are going to be some constraints coming in with the new collective bargaining agreement and the new rules that we're going to have to be very aware of, and we're going to have to plan accordingly.

"And they do make it difficult to retool a championship roster."

So, Mike, learn to develop the young players, and play them more minutes.

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So, first, the Nuggets have to make other deals, that they can under the first apron, before resigning KCP. (I assume he opts out of his option.)

So, on sign-and-trade? That cuts both ways.

If I'm Booth, and, per O'Connor, the KCP market goes north of $20M? I look at that possibility.

I also look at doing something I have thought about long before O'Connor suggested it. And, that's trading Porter. Here's O'Connor:

He’s still only 25 years old and appears to be past his injury concerns after missing only 21 games the past two seasons. And he’s certainly one of the league’s best shooters. But he’s expensive, he doesn’t create his own shot off the dribble, and he’s inconsistent on defense. Maybe it’d make sense for the Nuggets to trade Porter for two players, giving them more depth while retaining shooting prowess. Because for the second consecutive year, MPJ’s production fell off a cliff in the playoffs. Last season, Porter averaged 12.3 points on 11.4 shots per game on just 32.7 percent shooting from 3 over the final three rounds. This year, he was even worse in the second round, averaging 10.7 points on 10 shots on 32.5 percent from 3. Porter was also more productive on defense last year.

In addition? He's just not that good defensively; inconsistent is part of it.

If he gets shipped with one of the young players, either this just-ended year's second-year players, or the rookies, to sweeten the pot, I'd be OK with that, depending on return. That's especially if it gives Booth enough wiggle room to resign KCP (who I keep if Porter's gone) and stay below the second apron. Ie, Porter, plus possibly a second player out, and the two players back are only 80 percent 

Also, setting aside first vs second apron, for other salary match reasons, this trade needs to happen before June 30. 

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The Ringer expects them to draft 6-10 Daron Holmes II from Dayton, saying he could be what they hoped Zeke Nnaji would have become. If he can do that, that gives them long-term flexibility to move beyond either MPJ or Aaron Gordon.

And, that ain't happening as the Suns got him at 22. Scratch that; IS happening. Suns either traded the pick or traded him after the pick. Nuggets send 28 and 56 from this year and two future seconds, which also surely would be near the end of the draft (setting aside that you know who was drafted in the middle of the second round).