Speculation on the 2024 presidential election going to the House, round 2

I offered an initial guesstimate last December; this is about 50 percent a reprint of that, with updates on specific items in italics and new backgrounding information.

Now that candidate issues are pretty much rounding into shape (other than knowing who the Libertarian candidate will be and if there's any real possibility of Trumptards stampeding the LP into a dual nomination) it's probably time for round 2.

I have the help of a recent Quinnipiac Poll, albeit registered voters in general, not restricted to likely voters. I also have 270 To Win as an easy electoral vote tracker.

And, per the original, there's Wikipedia's entry on the 2020 election the starting point.

Bob Jr. still strikes me, and certainly, pollsters, as the biggest wild card among independent and third-party candidates, as I wrote last December in this paragraph. Where is he most likely to have an effect? I'm basing this somewhat on state-by-state hunches and a general thought that he takes 60 percent Republican, 40 percent Democrat, among his voters who voted for somebody else in 2020, and doubles that with "green" voters. (Not "green" in that sense; green as in didn't vote for either one in 2020.) And, the QPac poll

My guesstimates, as listed in December, and updates/hedges in italics, primarily from 270 To Win aid, speaking of how Bob Jr. affects the race, using what 270 calls its "2024 Consensus" map.

1. He keeps Arizona in Biden's column. 270 says it's a toss-up; I'll make it a mild Biden lean.

2. He keeps Georgia in Biden's column. 270 is ditto.

3. He takes Maine, both of the individual Congressional district electoral votes and overall. 270 gives one of them to Trump, rest to Biden. I'll still stick with mine for now.

4. He takes New Hampshire. I will stick with that.

5. And, for shits and giggles, let's say he takes Wisconsin as well.

That's 18 EVs for him. Not enough to send it to the House. It's 288 Biden, 232 Trump, 18 Kennedy. But?

Let's say I'm wrong on Arizona and Georgia. That's 17 votes. I'm moving them to Trump, not Kennedy.

Then it's 271-249-18, right? Wrong. We forgot to factor in redistricting, which gives Trump's 2020 states 3 more EVs this time, and Biden's 3 less.

We are now at 268-252-18.

Even if I am wrong about Wisconsin, that's still 268-262-8.