Will the Cardinals even make the playoffs this year?

No "lefty masher" as DH and a paper-thin, at best, starting rotation make it a very serious question as to whether or not the St. Louis Cardinals make the playoffs this year, even with an expanded postseason putting six NL teams into the mix.

So, no, not an April Fool column. This is the real deal. Sadly, it was not an early April Fool when the Cardinals announced they were signing Phat Albert Pujols. My take on that, and its value or non-value, is here.

First, the DH side.

I busted St. Louis Cardinals president John Mozeliak's chops 3 weeks ago for claiming that Colin Moran could be the answer at DH, rather than spending for a lefty masher type or even Kyle Seager.  I stood by the idea of adding Jonathan Villar, who could easily pick up 200 ABs at the three non-1B infield positions and another 300 at DH as a lefty against righty pitchers, while still letting righty bats cycle through the DH spot for a day off from the field.

Seager is arguably the best lefty bat, especially among ones with at least bits of power, left available, per Spotrac. And, with the Cardinals signing Corey Dickerson [why?] they're probably out of the Seager running.

Villar would have offered even better infield depth, of course, and speed that neither Dickerson nor Seager have. And, at $4.5M for one year plus a buyout on an option with more details here, vs $5M for a  year in Dickerson, he didn't cost that much more money.

But, the pitching side is of course more serious.

Even further back, as in, one year ago, and before that, I've repeatedly said you can never have enough arms, and that's starters as much as or more than relievers.

That's why, when encouraging the Cardinals to look in the pitching world, beyond a budget Steven Matz, I wanted Mo to get Zack Greinke. However, the Royals have welcomed him back to his original home on a 1-year deal.

Well, with the Cards facing problems on both ends, with both starter Jack Flaherty AND reliever Alex Reyes officially not being able to answer the opening day bell, what IS the answer? Note: Flaherty has BOTH a labrum tear of some sort AND a left oblique injury; his injection is for the latter, which he incurred last year. That said, it's "interesting" that it continues to bother him this year; Flaherty said the problem started from mechanical issues last year. That said, did those mechanical issues relate to the labrum problem, despite both him and Mo downplaying it? Let's note that, despite the downplaying, the labrum, not the oblique, appeared to be the primary limiter last year, especially in the second half of the year. And, the old "platelet-rich plasma" isn't snake oil, but it's not all that some in the sports medicine world crack it up to be, either.) Note 2: Reyes is officially on the 60-day IL.

Due to that injury uncertainty, Flaherty and the team settled at $5M for this year without going to arbitration. That's an increase over $3.9M of last year, but, given sabermetric stats rather than counting ones, not really that much of a jump. So, his camp must have figured the team might win on contract numbers, over the injuries, if they pushed.

And, let's remember that the problem is NOT just limited to these two.

Given the age of Adam Wainwright, there's no guarantee he'll be healthy all year. Note that last year was his best season since 2014. Frankly, if the Cardinals get 2.0 WAR out of him this year, they should consider themselves fortunate, in my book.

And Miles Mikolas had his arm problems, too. And, we're still waiting to see how well Dakota Hudson is recovered from his Tommy John. (Yeah, he looked good at the end of last year, but? Small sample size.)

Last fall, I suggested Greinke. And, I also said then that I did not think a Matthew Liberatore was the answer. Not the immediate answer.

As for affordability? Right now the Cards are at $147M on salaries and $164M for lux tax purposes, per Cot's Contracts. Waino's $17.5M comes off after this year, as does Yadier Molina's $10M. Mikolas' $17M ends next year. There's room to spend.

But, for who? The Flubs signed Drew Smyly shortly after he was mentioned as an option. Trades, even with a team like the A's, won't come cheap as they know the Cards' desperation.

Basically, compared to last year? Let's take semi-worst case scenario and say:

Flaherty is "effectively" out the year. By that, I mean, let's say he tries a comeback in, say, early June. Start of July, has to shut it down. Tries again, early August and has to shut it down by end of August.

Ray pitches the full year;

Waino regresses, plus Waino/Mikolas/Hudson all have twinges enough to each miss about 1/3 the season.

So, that's your No. 1-3 starters, with Matz essentially No. 1 by default, then apportioning 2/3 a spot each to the latter 3. And, yes, I said "No. 1 by default." Matz has never broken 3 WAR in year, and has never broken 120 ERA+ in a full season, and any of the "Best Fans in Baseball" who think he's an actual No. 1 starter is at a new level of self-delusion.

So, it's possible that Liberatore may have to be, or forced into trying to be, part of the answer. It's possible that Drew VerHagen, signed to be a reliever first, will have to be moved into the rotation. Last year, there was talk about trying to "stretch" Reyes this year. Obviously, that one isn't happening. (Sidebar: Mo talked about success in signing players who had gone to Japan as part of the reason for inking VerHagen. Dude, you had ONE year of success with Mikolas, one year of meh, and then a bunch of injuries.)

Barring serious in-season injuries to them, I think we can go ahead and hand the Brew Crew the division title right now. Question is, do the Cards currently have enough to stay ahead of the Cubs for second in the division, and for one of the six expanded playoff spots, whether they're second or third in the division? Well, I'll put the Brewers, Braves, Phillies, Dodgers and Giants ahead of them for sure. That leaves the last playoff spot and I haven't mentioned Padres or Mets. As for the division, yea, I know, latest odds still have the Reds way ahead of the Cubs, which I find hard to believe. I mean, other than Marcus Stroman, the Cubs haven't had any needle-pushing moves, but, they haven't gutted their team, and haven't had any major losses, either. OTOH, the Reds just inked Tommy Pham. That said, what this really illustrates is that the NL Central basically sucks right now.

A lot of Cardinals fans will probably consider me a Debbie Downer. I'm just being realistic. 

And, not just me. On March 21, this site had the Cards and Giants tied for sixth in the NL on estimated wins. This site had them seventh in World Series odds. And, interestingly, both sites had them still ahead of the Phillies, which I don't get. That said, the first site put the Phillies just one game behind the Cards and Giants. Wynn, per Fansided, on over/under on wins, does have the Phillies ahead, though the Cards are half a game ahead of the Giants. So, they're at No. 7 there. If we have the Giants even, then it's a tie for seventh. If, like me above, you have the Giants ahead of the Cardinals, they fall to eighth.

Pecota semi-agrees. It puts the Cards under .500 (too low) but puts the Giants even lower. 

ESPN agrees, placing seven NL teams ahead of the Cards, as do I, and puts them right at .500. It gives them a 31 percent chance of making it, even lower than what I say. At Red Satan, David Schoenfield notes that a sub-.500 finish would be the first in 15 years.

So? Cardinals probably have 50-50 of making the playoffs. If they DO get in? 3-1 they're eliminated in the first round. (In case you weren't sure, the first round moves from a single game, which it was with five teams per league, to a 2-of-3 format.)

Side note: It's interesting that the Cards fell to fourth in the NL in attendance last year. That's the first time since 2012 they've been that low, and even in that year, they still broke 3 million.