Russia-Ukraine thoughts, Week 4

A briefer roundup than the first three weeks, but there's still things to talk about.

We start with Patrick Cockburn at Counterpunch. He argues that the US/West foreign policy establishment is underestimating Putin, and underestimating Russia's "chances" in the war with Ukraine. That underestimation won't be to THEIR peril, but it could indeed be to Ukraine's. In turn, that shows that in many ways, it still remains a pawn for the West. He also notes war crimes beyond this war (although missing a beat in not talking about Ukrainian as well as Russian war crimes within this war) and the establishment talking about "whataboutism." It's most true with Israel and Palestine, of course.

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Michael Kofman has a good Twitter thread on the level of attrition the Russian army has suffered so far. Kofman also notes that Putin's options on addressing this are limited right now because he has not declared a state of war.

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Putin has used NATO intervention in the breakup of Yugoslavia as both template and excuse.

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The US Treasury seems determined to provoke a Russian debt default.

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Said default, if it does happen, still might not hit Russia as hard as the US wants. The ruble has rebounded, vs the dollar, to pre-invasion levels. After reporting on that, NPR then tries to pee on our legs and say it's raining, with talk of "Potemkin currency," while not mentioning similar or worse interventions into our own economy by the Federal Reserve.

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Noam Chomsky, in an interview with the New Statesman, has weighed in with the same sensible no-twosiderism observations I have made here for two months.