I don't think it's "shocking." Red Satan, after all, ran a piece a week ago talking about how the Nuggets were now at play-in round level. Nikola Jokic was banged up, and missed a few games. He's back, but still. And, how well can he bear up carrying an ever-heavier share of the offense?
Yeah, Aaron Gordon is doing pretty well. But, still? You don't know when Michael Porter is coming back from that back surgery. All reports say not this year. What I'm getting at is, you don't know about next year. Jamal Murray isn't coming back before the All-Star break. Backup guard PJ Dozier recently dropped for the rest of this year.
You're not finishing better than the play-in round.
And, if you win that? You play either the Dubs, with Stephen Curry and the bunch, especially with Klay Thompson back at any level of play, or the Suns, with Devin Booker, Chris Paul et al.
Win that? It's either the Lakers with LeBron James and Anthony Davis, or the Clips with Paul George and presumably Kawhi Leonard.
If you tank, you are higher up in the draft rankings than you are if you're in the play-in round but don't make the final eight in the West. And, this is a decent draft year. Any place in the top 10 has you doing well.
So, I think it depends most on Joker. If he doesn't stay banged up AND you KNOW you're getting either Jamal back BY the All-Star break, don't tank. Otherwise? Tank away. Given MPJ's back injuries and surgery issues, you need to have a high draft choice next year.
The question is, how low can you tank? You can probably drop below the Spurs, cuz Pops would eye the No. 10 spot like a dog on a bone. Even more so the Kings, starved for any playoff appearance. The East is better overall, so you can probably fall below everybody but the Magic and Pistons. That puts you at No. 6, with a halfway decent shot of one of the three lottery Ping-Pong balls and a guarantee of no worse than No. 8.
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