First, neither of the challengers have a shot, IMO, per a Tweet with poll I posted on Twitter:
We know Allen West will finish behind Strangeabbott in the Texas Rethuglican primary. Does he finish ahead of or behind the Dreamy Don Huffines? https://t.co/4AnpBg6D6a
— Crushes Xi Jinping Thought Kool-Aid peddlers 🚩🌻 (@AFCC_Esq) July 4, 2021
I stand by that. It's the most serious challenge Abbott has had, but it will not be enough to force him to a runoff, let alone defeat him.
That then said, Huffines and West are NOT the same person, not the same candidate and don't have exactly the same target audiences.
Huffines and West are both wingnut-squared true believers, vs. Abbott, a plain wingnut grifter, hypocrite and Jesuitical lawyer.
But, after that, Huffines and West are different.
In his own way, and to his own degree, Huffines is part of the GOP establishment. Yes, you read that right. Remember, fifth-gen Texas family; car dealerships, construction company, etc.
Yeah, West is a now-former state party chair. But, he was elected by insurgents with no real ties to the Huffines types. Huffines' bro was named to a Strangeabbott "reopen Texas" task force not just to try to buy off Don, but because the Huffines family is connected, GOP political donors, etc. And, had Don not stayed wingnut after going wingnut to boot Carona, he'd still be in the state senate.
West? He and Huffines might agree on the wall and on attacking Abbott on coronavirus, but West is all in on Q and anything else he can be. It's quite possible he'll attract a fair amount of voters who otherwise would stay home next spring rather than vote for either Huffines or Abbott.
West has the additional advantage of being a semi-career military man.
He has the disadvantages of possibly still facing "carpetbagger" allegations. He may face the disadvantage of being Black. Yes, he was elected chair of the state GOP, but that wasn't a vote of rank and file Rethuglicans.
And, he has the potential disadvantage of anti-Abbott Rethugs seeing him praise Abbott for "reopening Texas" at the same time Huffines said he was still too slow.
With a poll taken before West's announcement, the Snooze had Abbott kicking Huffines' butt and having slipped back ahead of Matthew McConaughey, should he run. He's also ahead of a potential candidacy of R.F. O'Rourke. That said, suburban swing voters are anti-Abbott.
Speaking of? Matty M continues to flirt with his audience.
The one question that floats in my mind is: Was West shoved out of the state GOP? A new story from the Trib gives us a semi-yes answer, at least, it seems.
And with this, and no Senate race in 2022, the dance card for GOP statewide primaries is filling up. The chance of Sid Miller being primaried is well under 50 percent. Even if Ken Paxton is leaking oil, or bleeding out for sharks to smell, it's doubtful he attracts more than the two challengers he now has. Danny Goeb will almost certainly not be primaried. Dawn Buckingham is already in to replace Pee Bush as land commish. Unless Jerry Patterson wants his office back, she's surely the favorite against any possible challenger.
The only wild card out there is Glenn Hegar. He's the closest thing to a Joe Straus Republican in statewide office, although he's not THAT close.. A third term as the comptroller is his for the asking. Is he eyeing something bigger?
Running to the, not left, but non-wingnut conservative spot against either Strangeabbott or Goeb would be interesting.
I see rather, though, him running for re-election this year, then looking ahead to 2026 and maybe seeing if, for age-related reasons, his minders can't get Big John Cornyn to not seek another term. Carole Keeton Longhorn, Bob Bullock nd John Sharp before him have used the spot for a jumping point, after all. (Bullock was the only one of the three to be successful, that said.)
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