Dems2020: South Carolina and beyondin the headlights of Bernie Sanders, Cuba and Castro

After New Hampshire, I cautiously said the nomination seemed to be Bernie's to lose. Still with caveats, I said that more strongly after Nevada.

What is his best reasonable outcome beyond this?

1. Finishing a strong second to Biden in South Carolina. It is Biden's firewall with black voters; I don't expect Sanders to win. But, with him gaining support among black voters, if he finished within 5 percent of Biden overall, that's what I'm talking about — in part.

The other half of the deal is finishing more than 5 percent ahead of anybody else. I don't think that's going to be hard to do. Mayor Cheat has had his claims of black support called out as lies. Neither Warren, nor new face Klobberin Klobuchar, seem that strong among black voters. So by percentages, something like 35-30 between Biden and Sanders with the others all sharing the remaining 35 percent, wouldn't be bad. Something like 37-33, which gets Sanders inside the 5 percent mark and leaves everybody else with just 30 percent? If Sanders does that well in South Carolina, it's big. Keeping "Bloomie" below 15 percent would also be big. And most polls show it to be about that 5-point gap. I doubt that Tom Speyer's money binge in the Palmetto State will have a big payoff. I also doubt that all of his support is draining away to Biden. Public Policy's poll is likely an outlier. On the other hand, Biden, with the help of Bernie's booers, seems to have gotten a post-debate bounce there.

Meanwhile, ConservaDem thought leaders, after Nevada, are trying to figure out if it's better to roll back to Biden and try to resuscitate him, or else to hang tight with Mr. Stop and Frisk.

Update, 10 p.m. Feb. 29: Bernie didn't come close to being a close second, as Biden is close to an outright majority with most returns in. The only good news in the big picture is that both Buttigieg and Warren finished behind Tom Steyer, who is now dropping out. Given that he didn't have much support before SC, there's no real "swing" from him to other candidates.

And with that, those polls at right are still relevant for right now.

2. On to Super Tuesday. Winning a plurality here in Texas as well as California (and polls show this as possible here in Texas) would be the biggies. As of Wednesday, here's 538's poll roundup.

And, if Warren can't win, or even come close to winning, in Massachusetts? She needs to drop out. If she doesn't, she's officially in vanity candidate territory, or vanity plus identity politics.

On Klobuchar and Minnesota, it's currently a toss-up. But outside there, she's expected to be abysmal. She needs to drop out, too. Neither is likely, I'll admit.

I'm personally curious about Oklahoma. Will all of Warren's Indian heritage grifting blow up in her face? And blow up enough to be distinguishable from her generally bad performance?

Majority wins in his home Vermont, and Maine as well, would make the "inevitability" start to rise, as well.

If all of the above happens, given the way that delegates are awarded in many of these primaries, it's possible that Sanders would rake in half the total.

538 is saying probably just about half. Contra Berners, though, Biden's favored in Alabama, and Oklahoma and Tennessee are toss-ups. Bernie ain't running the table.

I think the other "desirables" for Sanders are to keep Warren and Klobuchar from any wins outside their home states (if that happens) and to keep Buttigieg and Bloomberg to no more than one win, if that.

If all that falls into place, the nomination is definitely his to lose.

As for ConservaDems (and some others) freaking out about Bernie Sanders' comments about Fidel Castro (and other things) on 60 Minutes?

First, he was going to get asked these questions anyway. It was a good forum to "defang" these things to some degree, as everybody who knows Bernie's past history knows he has these old comments about Cuba, Nicaragua and the Sandinistas, etc. Better to get them asked early. Repeated follow-up, along with Bernie holding the line "because the truth is the truth," will defang them more.

Second, as I quote-Tweeted:

Among 2nd gen Cuban Americans, Castro is less important. Among 3rd gen, he's a nothingburger, for most non wingnuts. https://t.co/zCdToG3Lhq

— I'll Be Biden Time in South Carolina primary 🚩🌻 (@AFCC_Esq) February 24, 2020

The idea this will have a massive sway in the general election, if Sanders is the Dem nominee, is ridiculous. Those 3rd-generation Cubans might be breaking for him anyway. And on the flip side, for many reasons, he has no shot at 1st-gen Cubans. Might it cost him somewhat among the 2nd-genners? Yes.

Third, as for Berners claiming Anderson Cooper was a "meanie" or whatever?

Take off your paranoiac anti-rose-colored glasses. Cooper was firm but fair and to the point. Exactly the type of interview Sanders needed on these questions.

Fourth, per "the truth" link? If Tom Steyer really agrees with #PunyPete on it being wrong to ever say anything good about leaders of other countries? It's this type of bipartisan foreign policy establishment bullshit that has us hated in Latin America outside of conservative elites as is.

Sanders still isn't a real non-duopoly thinker there, himself. He's been weak on the coup attempt in Venezuela. But, he's better than any other Dem.

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Obviously, this post is semi-null with the joint dropout of Klobuchar and Buttigieg, followed by both endorsing Biden, along with Bob on a Knob O'Rourke here in Texas and Harry Reid nationally.

I predict that, just in a special election in a Texas Lege race last month, Beto's gonna have kind o short coattails. What influence Reid has nationally, and, if Bernie gets the nomination, how he wants to eat his crow — if at all — will be interesting.