Dallas Keuchel to the Cardinals? Does Mo have new urgency with Martinez out?

The St. Louis Cardinals don't need to overpay for one of the top two position player free agents, one of whom is massively overrated anyway.

That said, they COULD still stand to upgrade the rotation.

And, a month ago, I suggested doing just that.

The idea?

A medium-sized dip into free agency with Dallas Keuchel.

I'm thinking 3/$50M base, maybe 3/$55, with innings and awards incentives for each year and a fourth-year option at $15M plus same incentives structure.

I am not sure if that's enough to land him, but it's certainly enough to be a good starting point. And, at the same time, it certainly doesn't feel like an overpay.

That said, he IS a Scott Bore-ass client. And MLB Trade Rumors reported on Feb. 10 that Keuchel was wanting 6-7 years at $250-30M per annum.

Per George H.W. Bush? Not. Gonna. Happen. (MLBTR, in November, predicted 4/$82 for Keuchel. My number, if he hit a reasonable amount of incentives, would be somewhere between $55-$60M for the three guaranteed years plus $17-18M or so for the option, so I'm not far off.)

But why, you may say, would I be interested in Keuchel at a more reasonable price, like what I mention above?

Simple.

Per the header, you can never have enough pitching.

And, this was true even before the club shelved Carlos Martinez for two weeks at the start of spring training due to shoulder issues — and player-management issues about his offseason prep and more lying behind that.

And, as of the time I posted this, that two weeks has been extended and he may not be ready for Opening Day. Wundebar. Meanwhile, way too many Cards fans are team Kool-Aid drinkers, per comments at that MLBTR link.

First, contra the Mike Shildt bullshit, Adam Wainwright not only is not a sort-of No. 1 starter, he's really not a starter period. Michael Wacha is not a No. 1 starter; he's a recurring injury waiting for a new outbreak. Alex Reyes should not be pencilled in for anything until he hurdles his two serious injuries for more than 25-30 innings.

Beyond that, as a commenter said at MLBTR, none of the other young guns have pitched enough at the MLB level for us to even talk about a "track record." They ain't got one, so stop making extrapolations.

A rotation that starts off with Miles Mikolas, Martinez and Keuchel has a solid foundation. Mikolas should eat a lot of innings, too, and Keuchel can.

Jack Flaherty is your No. 5, with Wacha at No. 4. John Gant and Daniel Poncedeleon fight for spot starts along with Waino. Right now, I might still take Wainwright ahead of them. Or I might not. With Luke Weaver gone in the Goldy trade, things are thin after that indeed, not allowing for the possibility of Carlos being shelved, and Reyes still an unknown.

And, at The Athletic, Bernie Miklasz agrees. (While, like me, a week ago at ESPN Radio, being skeptical that DeWitt would open DeWallet. Thanks, Bernie.)

Waino goes in the pen for long relief, spot starts to stretch out the four young'uns early in the season and to mop up. Maybe use Andrew Miller as an occasional "opener" on a lefty-heavy team and have Waino follow. Reyes also spot starts after rounding into shape in Memphis. Reassess the 4-5 spots by or before the All-Star break.

A rotation like that also stabilizes the pen a lot.

And, though he's called an "innings-eater," maybe Keuchel could be No. 2?

Let's look at it this way.

Every spring training, we hear about the promise and potential of Martinez. And, every season, he falls short. And, I'm not just talking about injuries.

He's never dropped a WHIP below 1.2, and pitching coach Mike Maddux, per Ben Hochman's piece on Carlos-Mo scuffles linked above, supposably loves that stat. Carlos has only dropped below 3.50 on FIP once. He's only broken 3 on K/BB once. And that wasn't the same year as the FIP best year.

In other words, Birds fans?

Carlos Martinez will never be a No. 1 starter. Not even a 1A. He's a 2, period. And Keuchel, on all the advanced stats above, is at least even with him. In fact, undercutting Ben (Dover) Hochman, he's been better than Martinez on WHIP the past two years.

Besides, as Derrick Goold notes in his latest baseball roundup on Feb. 6, Wacha is almost certainly gone after this year, and as he also notes, you can never have enough pitching. In addition, Goold expects Waino to do a midyear retirement if he can't cut the mustard at all.

But, we need another starter, IMO. Waino isn't one and what I said on Wacha. The Reds adding Sonny Gray further underscores the value of good pitching arms. I got into a fairly friendly, but somewhat heated, Twitter discussion on this last month with a group of Cards fans, in the hipster / bro / lumberjack division of male Millennials, perhaps, who can think of nothing beyond the imperative of signing Bryce Harper. See more on that here.

I know that DeWitt / Mozeliak are making noises that, other than adding relief help of presumably moderate cost, they're done. Rick Hummel pretty much confirms that, while noting that Mo "expects" Reyes to make a serious contribution this year.

Well, they shouldn't be.

And, fortunately, since leaving the P-D, Bernie Miklasz doesn't fellate Mo the way Goold, Hochman and Hummel do.

Others have mentioned the possibility of Gio Gonzales. He is a lefty, so he's got that. But that's about it. He's a step, or more, behind Keuchel, and also, two years older. I'd offer a 1-year deal at $5 million and move forward from there. But, no big money and no deals above 1 year. And, even $5 million is more like "final offer" than original offer.

So, bottom line, per the second, clearly rhetorical, question in the header?

Mo should have urgency, and does not.