Screw you Stanton

Giancarlo Stanton 

So, Derek Jeter, the public face and everyday executive of new Miami Marlins ownership, is trying to dump salary, as already shown with the Dee Gordon trade, and with hinting to $295 million albatross Giancarlo Stanton that if he won't waive his no-trade clause, more salary will have to be traded away elsewhere.

Well, the Iron Giant still believes in tooth fairies in either the Bronx or Chavez Ravine, apparently, as he has refused trades to both the Cardinals and the Giants.

OK, let's look and see just how delusional Stanton's Yankees and Dodgers hopes are.

First, the Yankees.

Well, no, first, a word or two on the lux tax. The Dodgers are miles over. The Yankees are a fair bit over. We should note that tax is based on salary on the 40-man roster, too, not the 25-man roster. It also includes about $11 million in pension and medical benefits. PLUS — starting next year? If a team is more than $40 million over the cap, its first pick in the First Year Player Draft, per MLB, gets kicked down 10 spots. ALSO, the new tax includes surtaxes, in addition to repeater rates. These aren't too bad for each dollar in the $20-$40M overage, but each $ over $40M is hit at 42.5 percent — the first year. A repeater rate for that is at 45 percent.

So, through the life of the current CBA, through 2021, there's two numbers to watch. One is whatever the lux tax line is, and the other, even for richer teams, is that number plus $40 million. The draft choice penalty kicks in every year that's exceeded, not just for repeater teams.

NOW, the Yankees.

Brian Cashman is NOT trading Aaron Judge. And likely not Aaron Hicks. So, that blocks two outfield spots right there. Jeter is not taking back Jacoby Ellsbury and three more years of $21 million per if he's trying to dump salary. He's probably not taking back two years of Brett Gardner at roughly the same salary as the just-traded Gordon. So, that blocks ALL starting outfield spots. Besides, Cashman is reportedly under mandate to get below the $195M lux tax line. (The Yankees were not too far over the threshold last season and are now losing the old $25M/yr contract of CC Sabathia.) Besides, the Yankees went to the ALCS last year with a young team and a manager disconnected to some degree from many players. They don't really need you.

I stand by that as of this time even in the face of Great Red Satan reporting that Marlins-Yankees talks are heating up. In a note on the Yankees' webpage at ESPN, Andrew Marchand admits it would have to be a convoluted deal, with the Yankees trying to shove salary down Jeter's throat, which he's already indicated he won't do, with the Gordon trade. Plus, Marchand also reminds that Ellsbury had a no-trade clause of his own. Is he going to Miami? Nuh-uh. (Oh, and note to Buster Olney? If the Dodgers ain't interested, there's no "leverage" for the Marlins to gain.)

Now, it might be just possible for Cashman to do a three-team trade, but he'd probably have to send at least a couple of prospects of some sort to that third team, then.

Update: Apparently Cashman pulled off his deal. Either he's worse on lux-tax math than he would appear to be, or else he's dumping more salary back to Miami besides Starlin Castro, or else there's going to a modern America version of income inequality on that team. Per Cots, with relatively low estimates (I think) on what the Yankees' arb-eligible and pre-arb players will get offered, swapping Stanton's contract for Castro's puts them at $170M. Add $11M or so for medical/pension contributions and you're at $181 without accounting for the 15 players not on the 25-man but who are on the 40-man. At a minimum, it's not going to be as easy-breezy as Andrew Marchand seems to present it.

Next, the Dodgers, for whom Miami talking to the Yankees is NOT a stalking horse.

First, they've got the highest payroll in MLB, well over the luxury tax line. They got down to "just" $241M last year, after $249 in 2016 and $271 in 2015. And, Clayton Kershaw has an opt-out on his current contract after this year. They could dump Adrian Gonzalez and Yasiel Puig after next year, but their two contracts combined will be less than Stanton's out-years one. (Technically, the Dodgers do have a year of arb control with Puig in 2019, though his current contract ends after next year.) The team would surely love to get below the tax line in 2019 (it almost surely can't this coming year) to get a reset from being a repeat offender, as they're paying a 50 percent tax on the overage rate right now, and that's without the surtaxes and draft spot punishments in the new version of the tax.

That's not to say the Dodgers won't consider nosing around next year, if they're willing to pay the repeater tax again, but on salary of no more than $235M, to get below that higher surtax level.

For shits and giggles, since he's from the Southland, let's talk Angels. No dice. The Ghost of Albert Pujols' contract has four years left. (Supposedly, Phat Albert is working to slim down this offseason, but we shall see. For my take on him in the middle of last summer, go here.) At the same time, they have just three years on the Mike Trout deal and will want to extend him. Plus, there's Kole Calhoun, C.J. Cron and just-signed Shonei Ohtani to play the outfield. Besides, Arte Moreno is more averse to the lux tax than his cross-town rivals, and adding Stanton, unless he could dump a certain amount back on Jeter, would push him just a bit over.

So, the Cardinals will move on to Plan B. With Miami, that includes looking at Stanton's outfield running buddies Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna. For a mix of reasons, from adding a lefty bat to seeing his peak potential dampened more by Miami's stadium, to seeing a steadier player, and seeing one under club control for five more years, the Cardinals reportedly lean toward Yelich. (I expect Ozuna to attract something in the $10 million range on arbitration this year, or at an absolute minimum, more than the $7 million Yelich gets next year. Yelich is also a year younger.

Bonus? If the trade price in players isn't too high, his salary is low enough that the Cards can ask about Evan Longoria from the Rays, who has a quite club-friendly contract for the next couple of years, and then a neutral one at the tail end, as a package with desired closer Alex Colomé.

Some other teams may nose around for whichever outfielder the Cards don't get of Yelich and Ozuna.

That lets the Iron Giant play with a team full of AAA players next year. Have fun, dude.

You're now with an owner who fired a staffer last month while he was in the hospital!