February 16, 2012

Does Obama have 2012 locked up?

The Signal, Yahoo's under-the-radar political data-analysis blog, a lower-level comparison to Nate Silver's 58 blog at the New York Times, pretty much makes that claim.

Two of its writers claim that, as of right now, he would win 303 electoral votes. Now, in the sense that's tighter than in 2008, he's got nothing locked up.

But, in the sense the economy's still struggling, and could get better, while at the same time, whoever the eventual GOP nominee is has left a huge video trail to exploit, "locked up" might not overstate the case too much.

Here's a few major takeaways.
1. Florida ever so slightly tilts GOP this time, compared to 2008;
2. Virginia is still in Obama's camp, barely, and so is New Hampshire;
3. Just like the last three elections, Florida and Ohio will arguably be the biggest battlegrounds (Ohio tilts slightly Obama's way), followed by Virginia, Colorado and Missouri;
4. Suggesting Scott Brown was NOT a fluke, Massachusetts still polls less than 55 percent Obama. That's in part due to the Yahoo duo "plugging in" Romney as Obama's opponent.

And, that all said, Silver himself, while not making guesstimates on electoral votes, also likes Obama's chances.

This all said, if the economy doesn't get worse again, the 303 electoral votes sounds quite plausible.

Of course, if Obama's dumb enough to shoot himself in the economic foot by taking the Iran issue past current sanctions and thereby pushing gas past $4 a gallon ... 

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