#Debtmageddon roundup for July 25

President Barack Obama and Speaker of the House John Boehner remain at loggerheads, continuing to offer different plays (with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's plan looking more and more like a surrogate carrying water for Obama).

Both Boehner and Reid have "no new revenues" plans.

The big diff is that Boehner's doesn't kick this past 2013. (Of course, most countries don't have a "debt ceiling" anyway and we didn't before 1917.)

Boehner's short term plan could be bad politics for the GOP if enacted. You want Obama saying "we can't pay Social Security in, say, August 2012?) as well as just stupid.

But, given the way Obama in particular and many Democrats have acted on past issues, why shouldn't John of Orange hold out hope he can further wear down Preznit Kumbaya?

And, maybe part of the problem is that the GOP doesn't do math. John of Orange's "two-step solution" actually has five steps.

More than that, Boehner's continuing to tie a balanced-budget amendment vote to his plan shows how hostage he is to tea partiers. And, yet, they STILL don't like his latest offering. I would say tea partiers are Newt Gingrich of shutdown fame on steroids, but even that isn't right. Tea partiers are like shutdown-Newt on meth.

And, they lie even worse than Newt, too. Here's Ohio's Jim Jordan:

“The credit rating agencies have been clear that no matter what happens with the debt limit, the U.S. will lose its AAA credit rating unless we produce a credible plan to reduce the debt by trillions of dollars.

Nope. Rather, Moody's et al have said AAA is gone unless the debt ceiling is raised now and in a responsible manner. A balanced budget amendment, if passed, could lead to an even worse ratings tank at some point in the future.

Meanwhile, Boehner is trying to get Limbaugh's support. Whether against obama or against tea partiers, I'm not sure. maybe both.

Further proof of nuttery? Tea partier fave Steve King of Iowa wants to impeach Obama if we default.

Folks, we're going to have a default. Accept it. Now, whether Obama invokes the "full faith and credit" clause and/or 14th Amendment when Aug. 2 comes without a deal, who knows.

But, I'm giving 50-50 odds right now that we're going to have a default. No, that's not just me. ABC's "The Note" says 40 percent.

Update: First, Andrew Leonard doubts Obama will pull a 14th, or that it would settle much if he did. He's probably right on the impeachment angle; don't know about the rest.

Second, per Salon, Charles Greenstein has this to say about the "too mild for tea partiers" Boehner plan:

House Speaker John Boehner's new budget proposal would require deep cuts in the years immediately ahead in Social Security and Medicare benefits for current retirees, the repeal of health reform's coverage expansions, or wholesale evisceration of basic assistance programs for vulnerable Americans.

The plan is, thus, tantamount to a form of "class warfare." If enacted, it could well produce the greatest increase in poverty and hardship produced by any law in modern U.S. history.

That default likelihood might be creeping north of 50 percent.