Final fallout fromWar on Iraq — Iran and Shi'a worries

I think at least a small part of the bipartisan foreign policy establishment had to know, in advance of March 2003, that an invasion of Iraq with the amount of troops we were using had some chance of empowering Iran.

While not all Shi'ites, especially not many in Iraq, look to Tehran for guidance or marching orders, many in the smaller Gulf states between Saudi Arabia and Iran may have at least some leaning that way. And, Riyadh worries that "some leaning" could increase. The map below illustrates this well.

The Sunni-Shi'ite division in the Middle East underscores Saudi Arabian fears of Iran.

And, recent events prove this out.

Saudi Shi'ites protest, support Bahrain brethren.

One Saudi Shi'ite activist said hundreds attended several protests including one in the eastern region's main Shi'ite center, Qatif, to show their backing for Bahraini Shi'ites who are protesting against the Sunni royal family.

Bahrain encampment in capital has a Shi'ite angle.

Saudi Arabia has voiced concern that if Bahrain is taken over by Shiites, the country would become a satellite state of Iran. But the crackdown may only increase protesters’ sympathy for the Shiite-ruled country, some observers said Wednesday.

More here on Saudi worries about Shi'ites driving this all, and, by extension, Saudi worries about Iran. Here's details on it's arrest of a a Shi'ite cleric last month that triggered this.

Kuwait debates sending troops to Bahrain.

Notice a common thread?

Meanwhile, just because Iraqi Shi'ites don't take orders from Tehran doesn't mean that, to play an anti-American bank shot, someone like Moqtada al-Sadr can't throw gas on the fire.

So, the bottom line? Bush surely had somebody warning him about this.

The neoconservatives behind the throne, with their even more insular thought, would have poo-poohed such worries. Well, democracy promotion had been "problematic" since the Islamic Salvation Front won the 1991 Algerian elections. So, even the neocons had no excuse.

Even if there's no connection to Iran, Shi'ites can exploit that idea. And, given their varying degrees of repression in Gulf states, they will.

Obama is kind of getting hoist, but it's on Bush's petard.