SocraticGadfly: Yes, 1982 was worse!

January 21, 2009

Yes, 1982 was worse!

Far worse, in fact, than 2008.

Small comfort, that, but respected economist David Leonhardt shows why I was right when I pointed out – primarily to the under-35 crowd, two weeks ago, that wailing over 2008 job losses was overblown and lacking historical context.

Anyway, here’s Leonhardt’s nutgraf, courtesy of information from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
It’s not even that close to being as bad. The ranks of unemployed and underemployed, controlling for the size of the population, were much larger in 1982 than today.

He then tackles the issue of those wet-behind-the-ears bloggers and would-be online pundits who have no historical context:
The recession of the early 1980s doesn’t have a catchy name, and almost half of Americans are too young to have any real memory of it. But it was terrible — qualitatively different from the mild recessions of 1990-91 and 2001.

As someone who’s over 40, not just 35, and was wrapping up high school at this time, I can tell you it was serious indeed. Leonhardt says on the employment side, the total of unemployed/underemployed/discouraged, while high right now, is still 3 full percentage points or more below the worst spot in 1982.

If that’s not clear enough, the graph at left is crystal clear. In terms of employment, at least, we’re nowhere near 1982 right now.

Now, could things get not just a little worse, but a lot worse? Yes; Leonhardt says that, too. But, his bottom line is, 30-somethings, and especially 20-somethings, should shut up and stop acting like Chicken Littles.

Read his full column.

It’s stuff like this that makes me feel “older,” to the point of feeling a semi-curmudgeonly “older” about today’s “kids” and their lack of suffering or whatever.

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