Is Ben Zobrist worth $60 million? Or even more?

Super-utility Ben Zobrist:
will an owner overpay?

Over at Hardball Conversations, a group baseball blog where I'm one of the authors, that's recent talk — that free agent utility man Ben Zobrist wants $60 million on a four-year contract. Or more.

Meanwhile, at Fangraphs, proprietor Dave Cameron, who has good insights at times and "interesting" ones at other times, thinks Zobrist is not the $60 million man, but should be — and will be — the $76 million man.

I strongly disagree.

First, second basemen age out more rapidly than any other position than catcher, which I noted in this post this summer, from my blog, about Robinson Cano, and historic aging out at that position, including Roberto Alomar, Bobby Grich, Lou Whitaker, Ryne Sandberg, Frank Frisch, and even HOF greats Rogers Hornsby and Nap Lajoie, above others.

The continued slippage of Chase Utley this year is another warning sign.

Age 35, which Zobrist will be next year, is a "wall" for second basemen, on average. Yes, there's the occasional outlier, like Joe Morgan, but they're definite, rare exceptions.

Yes, that's not his only position, but, it has been his primary one in years past. And, if he wants to be a single-position starter, it's probably the position most teams would look at. I don't think he's got the range to be a valuable full-time shortstop. He doesn't have the bat power to be an everyday third baseman (high-average folks like Matt Carpenter aside). And, certainly in the AL, he doesn't have the pop to project as an everyday LF, or the arm/range for RF.

Second, Zobrist's defensive stats must be noted as "relative" and viewed through the lens of Joe Maddon being an early, and aggressive, adopter of defensive shifts. And, that aggressiveness increased, as did Tampa's winning, right as Zobrist worked himself into the regular lineup.

If one point of WAR is worth about $6.6 million, then Cameron is expecting Zobrist to be a 3-WAR per year guy through age 38. Lesser estimates, at the $60 million mark, are still expecting him to average 2.25 WAR or so.

Steamer projects 3 WAR next year and B-Ref about 2.5. I'll venture 2.3 this year, 2 in 2017, 1.7 in 2018 and 1.4 in 2019. That's 7.4 WAR.

My guesstimate? He's going to be less than 2 WAR a year on average. Yes, he slumped in 2015 due to a knee injury, and yes, that injury was on the basepaths, not in the field. Nonetheless, he's got mileage on him. And, maybe the defensive side of his utility skills has been overrated. In 2014, Fielding Bible added a multi-position award. In that year, a healthy Zobrist couldn't beat out Lorenzo Cain.

Let's round down to 7 WAR x $7M per WAR. He's worth 4/$49 ... maybe 4/$52 if one wants to give him a bit of candy. No more.

That said, there may be an owner who will give Zobrist a straight four years, instead of the 3/$50 that had been early talk, and $60 million. There may even be an owner dumb enough to pay Zobrist what Cameron thinks he's worth.

It will be an overpay.

Dallas Morning News to take 3rd stab at paywall next year and other Belo fun

Regular readers of this blog, especially media news followers, will the great degree of hilarity with which I have greeted previous Snooze attempts to implement a paywall, followed by rejection of them. I wrote just three months ago about the Snooze/Belo anti-paywall stance, shortly after wondering if the paper's slouching toward Gomorrah had increased.

After their second paywall faded away, they tried a "premium website" model, which then flopped. It flopped for very good reasons.

So, when Belo announced it would take another crack next year, I was skeptical.

Jim Moroney is right that for a regional daily, even a large one like the Snooze, digital advertising and digital circulation alone isn't enough to offset print revenue declines in those two areas.

He ignores that having a paywall on the digital side can help stanch hardcopy circulation declines, though. (Why pay for a hardcopy newspaper when I can get it online for free, after all?) That, in turn, arguably would stanch the decline in hardcopy advertising. (The Snooze, while not as bad as the Austin American Statesman, had a paid adhole of just 25 percent on a mid-November Thursday of random choice from my recent browsing at a nearby library. That's throwing out full house ads and semi-house ads, but counting obits as paid ad inches. Those are not good numbers for a Thursday. For a Tuesday, they would be; probably for a Wednesday. Bit skimpy for a Thursday, though.)

He admits the Snooze has blown it on execution on the previous two paywall shots. He also says even a New York Times isn't at the point it could be digital only. Agreed, Jim, and nobody's saying that.

That said, Moroney also plans to keep putting eggs in other baskets:

Publisher Jim Moroney III has led the paper’s two-year-old acquisition strategy under parent company A.H. Belo. He says this tactic — aggressively seeking out marketing, data and innovative search companies to complement its existing business strengths — is what the DMN needs to sufficiently diversify its revenue base. 

In the interview, he doesn't detail how successful this has or has not been so far. Nor does he detail what conflicts of interest this might already involve. After all, it's just one step from marketing to public relations — long known as the "dark side" to journalists. 

He goes on:

We have not stopped looking since we started this two years ago. We still have an investment banker helping us go look for acquisitions in the categories of data analytics, marketing automation platform companies, very sophisticated search companies. We’ve looked at direct mail and outdoor, video production for advertising purposes, companies that can build apps and websites and improve them — all the kinds of marketing services that our current customers either are using or [to which] we want to introduce them. 

OK, the first question is: Why would a Snooze advertiser use your marketing (or PR) services rather than someone else's in DFW? Are you offering package deals? At what discount? If so, how much does that bring the ethics issue up?

Other than that, again, why would they want you? "Because we're A.H. Belo!"? "Because we're the Dallas Morning News!"? That type of thinking has led to some of the problems in the first place.

Direct mail? Jim, that's the fricking dinosaur age, first. Second, the last thing a lot of people what is the Snooze cluttering their mailboxes.

Outdoor? I don't think folks like Lamar are doing that well as we speak. What makes you think significant money is out there?

Web design, etc.? What do you think you bring that established companies don't already offer? 

Moroney then says, Oh, hey, we're debt-free, etc.

Yea? That's because you're a one-newspaper "newspaper company," in essence, not counting the spinoff products there in Dallas. Selling Providence, Riverside, etc., cleaned up your debt but left you with no margin for further error. And, the guy you sold Riverside to filed for bankruptcy, so good luck getting all the money he paid, if it wasn't up front, which I certainly presume it wasn't.

And, the interviewer gives him a pass on this.

#ParisClimateConference: India

From what I heard on NPR last night, reinforced by stories like this and this, India wants to have its cake and eat it too on climate change.

Indian Prime Minister Narenda Modi says that Indian should be lumped more with sub-Saharan Africa than China on climate regulations. As part of this, he notes that fair chunks of India aren't even electrified.

But, once the Paris talks are done, just watch and wait.

Soon enough, Modi will bitch that India's not drawing nearly as much foreign investment as China, even though it should be treated just like China, or words to the similar.

It's an issue over which India has grown increasingly schizophrenic in the last decade or so, in my opinion, and is only likely to become more so. It has a "tar baby" relationship with China, and even more with the corporate West's relationship with China.

Meanwhile, even including the Potemkin Village aspects of China's economy, India continues to do worse. The infrastructure is worse. The graft and other corruption, because it's petty, diffuse, and multilayered, is worse than China's strongarm shakedowns.

And, the BJP's idea, even if not directly espoused by Modi, of trying to win, or rather, "win," a population growth war with China is simply nuts.

If ANYTHING in the developing world is anti-climate change, it's unchecked birthrates.

And, tragically, and stubbornly, for all his pronouncements about climate change, Francis the Talking Pope won't do anything about stopping papal and Vatican opposition to birth control.

TX Progressives talk socialism, Medicaid, more

The Texas Progressive Alliance stands with Planned Parenthood as it brings you this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff gave three more looks at the Houston electorate in 2015.

Socratic Gadfly is willing to go beyond Bernie Sanders and supports a selective use of corporate socialism.

The last Houston mayoral debate is scheduled for Saturday, December 5, and as early voting begins Wednesday, December 2nd, PDiddie at Brains an Eggs offered his P-Slate for the runoff.

Neil at All People Have Value took more pictures of Houston as part of making plain the value of everyday life. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

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And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

The TSTA Blog thinks school funding trumps test score concerns.

The Makeshift Academic considers the state of Medicaid expansion in the wake of the Louisiana election.

Lize Burr interprets Greg Abbott's most recent bout of shameless base-pandering.

Texas Watch invites you to donate to important causes for #GivingTuesday.

The Lunch Tray has a Thanksgiving message about childhood hunger.

Beyond BONES relates a more complete history of Thanksgiving.

Michael Brick celebrates as more offensive team nicknames bite the dust.

TransGriot reveals the Secret Trans Agenda.

And finally, the TPA welcomes Swamplot back from its sabbatical.

No, not everything happens "for a reason"; sometimes, #ShitHappens

Personally, I loathe that phrase, whether out of the mouths of conventionally religious, out of the mouths of New Ages, or out of the orifices of 12-steppers, for two reasons.

One is that it doesn't comport with modern scientific knowledge; the uncertainties of quantum theory show that, at a microscopic level, exact causation cannot be limned out. Related to that, things like chaos theory, emergent complexity, etc., show that exact results of causal events cannot be predicted even at the macroscopic level.

Two, as shown here in detail, it's got a huge, gross, boatload of insensitivity behind it.

This also illustrates why the Silver Rule is better than the Golden Rule.

"Do NOT do unto others what you do NOT want them to do to you."

I've written about the Silver Rule before, most recently with Kim Davis. Before that, with explaining its practical consequential differences, as part of attacking the so-called War on Christmas myth.

This has some extra significance with the HERO proposition losing by a fair margin in Houston Tuesday.

A lot of conservative Christians probably haven't even heard of the Silver Rule. Those who have would surely belittle it as non-Christian.

Beyond the Silver Rule, shit happened plenty in Houston on bigotry, and on the state of Texas in general in kissing the Legislature's ass, last week. And, noooo, there was no divine plan behind it; there was no "reason" except the lack of reason of a majority of a small minority of eligible voters who actually turned out. And, if my guesstimates are right, more shit will happen to Houston in times ahead.

And, beyond that, from personal experience in the newspaper biz, I know that shit happens all the time. Fatal car wrecks had no god or higher power behind them, for example.

Nor does a small town murder-suicide on the stereotypical "slowest day of the news year."

And, certainly, on the slowest day of the news year, no god had a purpose orchestrated behind a wingnut anti-abortion zealot killing a police officer and two others.

Dear Gov. Abbott: Yes, keep the #terrorists out of Texas! They're #teaparty folks; you can find them

The last arguable terrorist attack in Texas? As I blogged about multiple times, concluding with this, it was tea party sympathizer Larry Steven McQuilliams.

Per that post, with the links inside of it, McQuilliams had clear anti-government leanings, as mentioned on his Facebook page and other things.

His family of origin, per my post, was deep into Obama birther territory and more.

McQuilliams himself was anti-immigrant as well as a birther, and according to Austin Police, this was based on part on "Christian identity" stances he was taking.

"Christian identity" movements usually boil down to "white identity" movements, and biggest one McQuilliams was in was certainly that.

Given that this happened not quite one full year ago, Texas GOP leadership's institutional memory is short because it chooses to be.

Smoke billowed from a seven-story building after a small private plane
crashed into a building that houses an office of the IRS in Austin.

Alberto Martinez/Austin-American Statesman, via Associated Press

Before McQuilliams?

Andrew Joseph Stack, who in 2010 flew a private plane into the Austin IRS office, in what can only be called a suicide bombing. And, while right-wing bloggers tried to distance themselves and their movement from Stack, anti-IRS animus is much more the province of the far right than the far left, or what bits of a far left exist in America today.

And, yes, it's still a terrorist attack even if done by an individual that's not part of a group, if terroristic intent is involved.

The state of Texas even has the crime of "terroristic threats" on the book of criminal offenses.

Before that?

David Koresh/Wikipedia

Well, going back just over 20 years? White, Christian, anti-government? Remember a guy named David Koresh?

After Koresh but before the election of President Obama, the Southern Poverty Law Center reminds us of the Texas Militia, the Republic of Texas movement, and other right-wing anti-government groups, plus the good old Ku Klux Klan.

So, by all means, Gov. Abbott, I wish you would keep terrorists out of the state. You can start by being honest about who the terrorists are.

But, you won't.

You never will.

Meanwhile, Andrea Grimes of Texas Observer had almost exactly the same thought, including naming McQuilliams, Stack and Koresh, while also throwing in a healthy touch of snark.

I think President Obama should not only call Abbott's bluff on refugees, but go one better.

Let's make Jade Helm 2016 about the military doing humanitarian work resettling refugees — at the Governor's Mansion in Austin.

Oh, and "thoughts and prayers" won't bring back the dead killed by wingnuts.