SocraticGadfly

October 18, 2015

More GOP prez candidates face drop-out point

You'll notice that I have a poll at the top left corner of this blog. It asks which Republican presidential candidates are likely to drop out before the Iowa caucuses.

I put it up before Scott Walker surprised us all by doing so, even though he seemed to have money in the bank while still struggling.

Well, five of the six in that poll — Mike Huckabee, George Pataki, Bobby Jindal, Rick Santorum, and Lindsey Graham (figure out who he is) — along with Rand Paul, are all going politically broke, some rapidly.

Paul and Graham both have some reserves, but, by percentage of overspend, they're two of the three worst.

My venture is that, due to the nature of the Iowa caucuses, and that their overspend percentage isn't too high, Huckabee and Santorum hold on, hoping for a boost from the Protestant and Catholic Religious Right, respectively.

Pataki and Jenga (heh, heh) are both running "vanity" campaigns and we all know it. As soon as other people refuse to refund their vanity, those two are out.

Rand Paul may figure out a way to re-energize his daddy's supporters.

Butchmeup? What, the Log Cabin Republicans aren't backing him? Well, they could, if he'd openly give them a reason to do so.

Anyway, the poll's still up; cast your vote!

October 17, 2015

A possible Biden campaign strategy after #DemDebate: Obama

In an inside baseball letter from Joe Biden to Dem bigwigs, telling them to give him just a bit more time, Joe Biden appeared to lay out his main strategy:

Ride Obama's coattails. That and the "optimism" angle appear to both be directly lifted from watching the first debate.

Serious debate analysis that wasn't there to fluff Hillary Clinton noted how all five candidates tied themselves to Obama to some degree. Clinton was surely No. 1, followed closely by Martin O'Malley, with Bernie Sanders a somewhat distant third.

The optimism?

Biden seems to have that as a natural temperament. Clinton may have it to some degree, but she's long ago locked it up, and I don't think Sanders really has it.

Biden would still have a huge uphill sled, and need to find some "his own man" ideas, but, some of those, he'll already have.

His "push" of Dear Leader on gay marriage and his "big fucking deal" on Obamacare will surely both get mention. And, Obama already gave Biden his blessing, and hinted about a possible endorsement. It won't be Clinton, if both are in the race. Not that I see. Have you heard Dear Leader utter one word about her email imbroglio?

Otherwise, yesterday, Obama continued to walk a tightrope between the two. But, that's with Biden not (yet) in the race. In additional video at that link, insiders say that Biden is not worried about his "legacy" if he runs and loses.

I still think that, after Tuesday's debate, he's more likely to sit out than jump in, but time — just another couple of weeks' worth at most — will tell. Other than that general thought, from my gut and intuition, no way I'm offering percentages.

It should be noted that, if Biden doesn't run, and a GOPer wins the 2016 general, Biden 2020 would be older than Sanders 2016, which is old indeed.


October 16, 2015

#RaiseYourVoice — it's #BlogActionDay

This is an update and extension of a previous post, when friend Perry commented about this in a group email, and I thought, what the heck. (For his post on this year's theme, go here, where he talks about Obama now re-entering the "endless war" arena with his decision to keep troops and airbases in Afghanistan.)

So, I joined Blog Action Day.

The first hashtag is the theme this year.

As a newspaper editor, I won't say that blogging, or new media in general, has replaced traditional media but, whether conducted by members of the traditional media or others, it is an important adjunct. Perry does good work on Houston City Council and Harris County issues, and it's not all "just" links to and analysis of Houston Chronicle and other media coverage, for example. It's his take on mayoral debates, etc., from his own attendance.

I've used this blog, at one place, as an adjunct to my newspaper, to get a couple of "leakers" to talk about serious problems with a school district bond issue. I've used it elsewhere to take a more hardnosed stance on some issues than I felt I could comfortably do there.

So, the voice is needed.

And, it's a voice that, even in the democratic "West," let alone elsewhere, needs to be encouraged. And, in a variety of subjects.

Politics, culture, environmental issues, philosophy, sociology all need a variety of thoughtful, articulate voices. At the same time, it needs less in the way of irrational, fear-mongering ones.

Per the theme, issues important to me include:
1. Environmentalism, including defending climate change science;
2. Secularism, defending it both against anti-First Amendment attacks from the Religious Right in the US and also defending it against the caricatures generated by New Atheism;
3. Reforming US politics, especially getting outside the two-party Republican/Democrat box;
4. Philosophy and speculative thought;
5. The arts and their need in modern society;
6. Futurism that isn't, in some way, shape or form, whether by New Ageism or salvific technologism like Ray Kurzweil, pie in the sky.
And ...
7. Being a deliberate contrarian, part of a budding Neo-Cynicism program of mine. The online world, and the world in general, needs more of this. Some modern-day Ambrose Bierce types, or similar.

What ideas matter to you? Have you blogged about them?

Do you think that, in the era of Facebook, blogging is dead? Actually, given Mark Zuckerberg's high-dollar connections to the tech-neoliberal world, blogging is more needed than ever with Facebook.

Canadian election thoughts on the #NDP from #JoeyBats

Yes, this message comes to your from Jose Bautista! In driving in Ryan Goins and Josh Donaldson with his mighty three-run homer to win the Division Series for the Blue Jays over the Texas Rangers,  he hit the most important homer in Toronto history since Joe Carter and his 1993 World Series-ending walk-off against Mitch Williams.

So, Joey Bats earns the right to be a Photoshopped spokesman for Canada's New Democratic Party.

That said, let's get to our seriousness, which starts with the latest polling.

How the HELL did the NDP fall from first, with a lead of almost 7 percentage points less than two months ago, to third, 6.5 points behind the second-place Conservatives?

First, the Conservatives were in second then, and their polling has traveled in a narrow band.

So, while some Canadian friends say that this is fallout from the Alberta election and Conservative scaremongering over Rachel Notley's provincial win, I disagree.

This is clearly a Liberal-Conservative issue. And, it's perhaps an issue of Americanization of Canadian politics.

As I see it, the surge is primarily due to pretty boy Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, who's got about one-quarter of his dad's depth and sells about as much snake oil as his American semi-namesake, quack Kevin Trudeau.

But, it's also about the NDP. Whether NDP leader Thomas Mulcair was running not to lose, or too focused on Conservatives, or what, after that late August lead, he's the party leader, and he's the one whose more responsible than anybody, even in a parliamentary system, for fumbling that lead away.

Maybe Mulcair can pull it out. Even though he's struggling to hold his own riding, primarily over the bigotry of the Bloc Québécois over the niqab issue.

Jack Layton is surely missed. But his valedictory letter is now four years old, and it looks like the NDP will likely squander victory.

Unless progressive-minded Canadians, like some of my friends, follow Joey Bats' advice. And Bautista gets to replace Jonathan Goldsmith as The Most Interesting Man in the World.

#Antisemitism and #FeelTheBern: A needed refudiation of an apparent #ConspiracyTheory

Bernie Sanders, victim of anti-Semitism
or victim of some of his own backers?
Via some Twitter friends of Doug Henwood (who I follow) and Corey Robin (who I do not), this seems like some big new theme — speculation, hints, etc., that at least some of the opposition to Bernie Sanders is driven by anti-Semitism.

Of course, I'm not saying that particular persons ARE doing this for their own political wedge.

However, I'm going to say right up front that THEY COULD BE.

It would be so tempting to call all that neoliberal, establishmentarian, inside-the-Beltway opposition to Sanders anti-Semitic and paint with a big black brush Sanders' opponents, wouldn't it?

First of all, Sanders isn't the first major, "legitimate" Jewish presidential candidate.

Barry Goldwater was, by ethnicity, though not religion. Joe Lieberman was the second, by ethnic Jewishness, and the first, by religious Judaism. And, while Lieberman didn't have a stereotypical New York City accent, whether Jewish or not, he was religiously observant as a Jew, which Sanders isn't. (And Goldwater, having grown up in Arizona, didn't have such an accent at all.)

Speaking of that, claiming this:
Is itself indulging in the idea that that is anti-Semitic stereotyping, by the person first Tweeting it, and fostering such thought, by the person passing it on.

Ted Rall's newest cartoon somewhat ties in with this issue.
Anything CAN BE a stereotype, and if I want to, I can shift it from a geographic origin stereotype (or other stereotype) to an ethnic one (in the case of ethnic Jewishness, like African-Americans), or in religious observance (in the case of religious Judaism, like Islam).

Or, I can say that cranky might be an age-related stereotype, or perhaps, a more legitimate age-related generalization, since Sanders is the oldest Democratic candidate, and if elected, will be older than when Reagan started his second term!

Here's another from the same person:
Maybe CNN thinks Bernie's a stereotypical Italian?

Or a stereotypical New Yorker, now transplanted a bit further north?

I do.

As for Ms. Dean, she thought my Italian comment was "just silly."

I told her it was less silly than "potentially fueling a potentially budding conspiracy theory."

And, that's exactly what the likes of her are doing.

Which is why I'm disturbed by the likes of Doug Henwood and Corey Robin, who know better, uncritically retweeting such nonsense.

And, while I disagree with part of this Facebook post, because I do think Sanders "won" what we now call a "debate" (it's a glorified joint press conference), I agree with large parts of it, namely, that Sanders' candidacy is highly Internet-driven, and in some ways, pretty insular.

As for whether or not Hillary Clinton called someone a fucking Jew bastard (I'm sure she did; like Jonah Goldberg [mark your calendars, I agree with a wingnut on something] her temper and vocabulary of that sort are legendary), that still doesn't mean there's an anti-Semitic cabal brewing. (That said, Jonah's laughable for calling Alan Dershowitz the poster child for anti-Semitism. Inside baseball?)

That said, the original NYT article? It's 15 years old!

What IS brewing is my growing less enthusiastic for him, the more I see more followers of him promote such nuttery.

As for Jodi Dean, again? I never claimed that all of the opposition to Sanders was anti-Semitism. I just claimed that (excluding non-realistic opposition, with possible anti-Semitism, by a nutbar Dallas Republican, and similar) none of the opposition to Sanders is driven by anti-Semitism.

Per comments below, one could see this Tweet:
As reflecting a Poe, tis true.

Or setting one up.

If it had been the first Tweet I, or the Twitterverse in general, had seen rather than the fifth or tenth, and not even the first response back to me.

If you're dumb enough to play badly with Twitter for a candidate probably even less likely than Hillary Clinton to be ranked high on "sense of humor," don't blame people like me for seeing it seriously. I say "people like me" because I'm sure I'm not alone.

Update: It's not a Poe, per a new blog post by Dean responding to mine. It's stone cold serious. Liza Featherstone, you first need to talk to Jodi. Second, if it is a Poe in your mind, you need to stipulate in any further comments here that that's your personal opinion only, and not that of other people from that Twitter thread.

That said, I'm going to do a bit of petard-hoisting on Dean, and through her, on Featherstone. If it's OK to think that privilege, structure, etc., is a bar to Sanders, and was a bar or potential one to Obama, it's a double standard to laugh whenever Hillary Clinton talks about being a woman is a bar, or potential one, to her.

Period and end of story.

Otherwise, my response to Dean about her comment about CNN stands in spades. If you want to even begin to read anti-Semitism into CNN commenting on Sanders' level of emotions, gestures, etc., you're at least skating close to the thin ice of conspiracy theories.

Beyond that, I hadn't previously known Henwood to be the type of person to uncritically pass on blogs, etc., that talked about "privilege" and "patriarchy." Robin, from my interactions with him, it's not as surprising, but it's still somewhat surprising.

Otherwise, I'm glad for the blog hits. As someone who'll vote Sanders in the Dem primary, but still vote Green in the general, and sees him with a fair set of his own flaws, which include personality issues, more ardent Sanders supporters can either get a clue about those personality issues (and see if he'll change) or else cruise along.

(And, if any readers unfamiliar with me think I'm a Clintonista or whatever, wrong. I scored Sanders as winning the first debate.)

Update, Oct. 27 — Having already written one follow-up on this nonsense: If the Bern-Boosters keep up the claims that talking about Sanders speech volume in an underhanded anti-Semitic trope, I'm going to keep writing blog posts kicking you in the nads.

October 15, 2015

One thing I REALLY hate about California

Not having been here on a vacation in four years, maybe I didn't notice it as much before. Or maybe Texas, and other states, have gotten better about it since then.

Here's the details on what really pisses me off.

Texas, and most states, at every exit on an interstate or other major freeway, after the green-backed "exit" sign, will have a blue-backed sign listing service available at that exit, as in "gas, fuel, lodging," "gas, fuel," or even the "no services."

California? It's spotty. For instance, at the north end of Santa Barbara on US 101, a sign said "services available next 9 exits" without individual exit details.

But, that's a small part of the problem. Normally, most states, at each exit, have individual placards for brand names of services at that exit, like McDonalds, Taco Bell, etc., for food, Shell, Mobil, etc., for gas.

Not California.

I don't know if the Cal Legislature passed a law allowing home-rule cities to block such placards (I saw a couple, but only in unincorporated areas or small towns), or (doorknob help me for sounding like Rick Perry or Greg Abbott, the past and current Texas governors) maybe it is part of an "anti-business climate" in the still, at times, Tarnished Brass State.

Whatever the reason for this, it is anti-business. And, in the case of late-night travelers looking not just for food, but specifically for fast food, it's a PITA indeed. It's a PITA to drive past an exit and see a Jack in the Box sign in the rearview mirror, a sign that, for various reasons, could't be seen before the exit.

And, given that not all fast-food places, even on freeways, stay open that late, knowing individual fast food places is important.

This is more than a bad-for-business or similar issue, too.

It's a highway safety issue.

Drivers rubbernecking to try to find fast-food restaurants at 11 p.m. is never a good idea, especially if they're out-of-region, let alone out-of-state, tourists.

Speaking of, California?

You could learn one other highway safety issue from Texas.

Except in mountainous areas, where it's more understandable, ditch the separate semi speed limits.

Here in Texas, it was shown, before we got rid of them, to actually add to traffic flow problems.

If it's an air-quality issue, make your diesel even cleaner. But get rid of the speed limit split.

===

And, yes, this is a sign of the apocalypse, to have Texas getting multiple things more right than California.