The Senate is going to pass a government-wide appropriations bill that will include Iraq money without a withdrawal timetable, goal, suggestion or other strings.
The House will pretend to save face. Speaker Nancy Pelosi will have it pass a version of the bill that has no Iraq spending. Once it gets to the Senate, Majority Leader Harry Reid will let Republicans attach an Iraq spending amendment. When the bill goes to House-Senate conference, the House will “quietly” accept the Senate version.
Does Pelosi really think she’s fooling anybody? Is she that dumb in this day and age?
December 08, 2007
Bisphenol-A comes under Canadian scrutiny
That includes Mountain Equipment Co-op, Canada’s largest outdoors retailer pulling Nalgene bottles from the shelves.
Considering studies as long ago as 1936 suggested bisphenol-A might be an endocrine disruptor, it stands to reason that a modern, thorough, in-depth study not sponsored by the plastics industry is exactly what we need to determine just how much bisphenol-A can leach out of polycarbonate bottles. Too bad we still can’t get that in the U.S.
Considering studies as long ago as 1936 suggested bisphenol-A might be an endocrine disruptor, it stands to reason that a modern, thorough, in-depth study not sponsored by the plastics industry is exactly what we need to determine just how much bisphenol-A can leach out of polycarbonate bottles. Too bad we still can’t get that in the U.S.
December 06, 2007
Recession more likely — and around party convention time
Moody’s expects a nationwide housing price drop of 15 percent by 2010 and a California/Florida drop of as much as 30 percent, with full recovery not until 2010.
Remember, the freeze doesn’t apply to already-delinquent homebuyers, nor does it apply to upside-down loans. And, at a 15 percent drop, not to mention 30 percent in California and Florida, many loans will be upside down.
As for a recession possibility?
The same Moody’s report says housing will knock 1.5 percentage points off economic growth next year, most of that by before the end off summer.
So, a recession — right around the Republican and Democratic national conventions. And, a “reset freeze” that’s like a Band-Aid on a horror flick chainsaw wound.
House prices are forecast to fall 13% from their peak through early 2009. After accounting for incentives home sellers are offering buyers, effective declines peak-to-trough will total well over 15%, the report said.
Punta Gorda, Fla., and Stockton, Calif,, are the hardest hit markets in the United States, with price declines from peak-to-trough forecast at 35.3% and 31.6%, respectively.
"This is the most severe housing recession since the post-World War II period," Moody’s Mark Zandi told Reuters.
Remember, the freeze doesn’t apply to already-delinquent homebuyers, nor does it apply to upside-down loans. And, at a 15 percent drop, not to mention 30 percent in California and Florida, many loans will be upside down.
As for a recession possibility?
The same Moody’s report says housing will knock 1.5 percentage points off economic growth next year, most of that by before the end off summer.
So, a recession — right around the Republican and Democratic national conventions. And, a “reset freeze” that’s like a Band-Aid on a horror flick chainsaw wound.
Mitt Romney likes Muslim prayer
Just not in his would-be Cabinet, I guess. And, Mormonism? He treads even lighter than I expected. Among the highlights from his “JFK speech.”
Followed by the prerequisite bashing of a secularist straw man:
Then, the Religious Right pandering:
In other words, “I’ll appoint judges who keep the church-state ‘wall’ pretty low.”
Then, the Declaration of Independence and Constitution get fused:
The Constitution nowhere grounds any of our rights as being endowed by a Creator. Nice sleight of hand. (Of course, liberals can conflate the two documents, too.)
Then, the anti-terrorist pandering:
Final note: “Mormon/Mormonism” only mentioned once, in passing, in comparison to JFK’s Catholicism. As I said, even lighter than I expected.
And in every faith I have come to know, there are features I wish were in my own: I love … the commitment to frequent prayer of the Muslims.
Followed by the prerequisite bashing of a secularist straw man:
We separate church and state affairs in this country, and for good reason. No religion should dictate to the state nor should the state interfere with the free practice of religion. But in recent years, the notion of the separation of church and state has been taken by some well beyond its original meaning. They seek to remove from the public domain any acknowledgment of God. Religion is seen as merely a private affair with no place in public life. It is as if they are intent on establishing a new religion in America – the religion of secularism. They are wrong.
Then, the Religious Right pandering:
Our greatness would not long endure without judges who respect the foundation of faith upon which our constitution rests. I will take care to separate the affairs of government from any religion, but I will not separate us from 'the God who gave us liberty.'
In other words, “I’ll appoint judges who keep the church-state ‘wall’ pretty low.”
Then, the Declaration of Independence and Constitution get fused:
It was in Philadelphia that our founding fathers defined a revolutionary vision of liberty, grounded on self evident truths about the equality of all, and the inalienable rights with which each is endowed by his Creator.
We cherish these sacred rights, and secure them in our Constitutional order. Foremost do we protect religious liberty, not as a matter of policy but as a matter of right. There will be no established church, and we are guaranteed the free exercise of our religion.
The Constitution nowhere grounds any of our rights as being endowed by a Creator. Nice sleight of hand. (Of course, liberals can conflate the two documents, too.)
Then, the anti-terrorist pandering:
Infinitely worse is the other extreme, the creed of conversion by conquest: violent Jihad, murder as martyrdom... killing Christians, Jews, and Muslims with equal indifference. These radical Islamists do their preaching not by reason or example, but in the coercion of minds and the shedding of blood. We face no greater danger today than theocratic tyranny, and the boundless suffering these states and groups could inflict if given the chance.
Final note: “Mormon/Mormonism” only mentioned once, in passing, in comparison to JFK’s Catholicism. As I said, even lighter than I expected.
Foreclosures hit record high in third quarter
By percentage points, the rate of homes in foreclosure jumped 20 percent from the second quarter to the third.
Defaults also hit an all-time high:
All of this puts the “rate reset freeze” into starker relief.
Remember, it does not apply to homes in mortgage default, let alone all the way past that into foreclosure.
At the same time, this will probably increase pressure for a Fed rate cut. That, in turn, will probably tank the dollar.
The Mortgage Bankers Association in its quarterly snapshot of the mortgage market released Thursday said that the percentage of all mortgages nationwide that started the foreclosure process jumped to a record high of 0.78 percent during the July-to-September period. That surpassed the previous high of 0.65 percent set in the prior quarter.
Defaults also hit an all-time high:
The delinquency rate for all mortgages climbed to 5.59 percent in the third quarter. That was up from 5.12 percent in the second quarter and was the highest since 1986, the association said. Payments are considered delinquent if they are 30 or more days past due.
Homeowners with spotty credit who have subprime adjustable-rate loans were especially hard hit. Foreclosures and late payments for these borrowers also reached all-time highs in the third quarter.
All of this puts the “rate reset freeze” into starker relief.
Remember, it does not apply to homes in mortgage default, let alone all the way past that into foreclosure.
At the same time, this will probably increase pressure for a Fed rate cut. That, in turn, will probably tank the dollar.
December 05, 2007
White House OKs mortgage rate reset freeze — so what?
The good news? It’s for five years.
The bad news? As preliminary reports indicated the freeze in adjustabale rate mortgage rate resets only applies to homeowners current on their mortgages.
Nor, of course, do we know if ARM –holders who get a five-year grace period will actually learn the discipline it takes to handle a merely delayed, not eliminated, rate reset when it comes down the road.
If not, we’ve just shuffled trouble off to Buffalo, where it will keep growing in the dark.
And, this freeze also assumes lenders will be highly willing to refinance. Well, given what we’ve seen so far, that may not be quite so true.
First, lenders just have not been that anxious to move on this issue.
Second, this may be a situation similar to where people take out six- or seven-year car loans and are, in essence, “upside down” on the vehicle, especially if they want to resell before paying the note off. Something similar may be happening in the case of some houses.
Or, related to that, if a house has lost that much value, investors who bought loans that are now nonperforming would have to agree to eat a loss.
And with slice-and-dice collateralized debt obligations never priced to market, the word “crater” immediately comes to mind in thinking of their potential value in such a situation.
Beyond that, banks and other lending agencies will surely be asking for proof of insurance when a borrower wants to re-fi to a straight-up mortgage. Well, getting back to my early point, what if that ain’t happening, or they ain’t making the grade?
That said, allowing courts more power over renegotiating loans, at least in bankruptcies, would leverage mortgage-buying speculators more.
On the other hand, some economists say that would make lenders more nervous about making loans, which would then make them more pricey.
And, bottom line: people who have paid off loans may not want any sort of bailout that comes out of their wallets.
No word as to whether or not BushCo supports allowing courts more latitude in resetting delinquent mortgages, which is under discussion in the Senate.
The bad news? As preliminary reports indicated the freeze in adjustabale rate mortgage rate resets only applies to homeowners current on their mortgages.
Nor, of course, do we know if ARM –holders who get a five-year grace period will actually learn the discipline it takes to handle a merely delayed, not eliminated, rate reset when it comes down the road.
If not, we’ve just shuffled trouble off to Buffalo, where it will keep growing in the dark.
And, this freeze also assumes lenders will be highly willing to refinance. Well, given what we’ve seen so far, that may not be quite so true.
First, lenders just have not been that anxious to move on this issue.
Second, this may be a situation similar to where people take out six- or seven-year car loans and are, in essence, “upside down” on the vehicle, especially if they want to resell before paying the note off. Something similar may be happening in the case of some houses.
Or, related to that, if a house has lost that much value, investors who bought loans that are now nonperforming would have to agree to eat a loss.
And with slice-and-dice collateralized debt obligations never priced to market, the word “crater” immediately comes to mind in thinking of their potential value in such a situation.
Beyond that, banks and other lending agencies will surely be asking for proof of insurance when a borrower wants to re-fi to a straight-up mortgage. Well, getting back to my early point, what if that ain’t happening, or they ain’t making the grade?
That said, allowing courts more power over renegotiating loans, at least in bankruptcies, would leverage mortgage-buying speculators more.
On the other hand, some economists say that would make lenders more nervous about making loans, which would then make them more pricey.
And, bottom line: people who have paid off loans may not want any sort of bailout that comes out of their wallets.
No word as to whether or not BushCo supports allowing courts more latitude in resetting delinquent mortgages, which is under discussion in the Senate.
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