China: Cheating bastards on #carbon emissions, #climatechange

Early this year, I was skeptical about what was billed as a groundbreaking agreement between Dear Leader and Chinese President Xi Jinping. I called it "relatively toothless" because of how far out it punted a lot of things, the "convenience" of China estimating it would hit peak carbon the same year as peak population, and more.

A street sweeper in Beijing last month amid heavy smog.
Kevin Frayer/Getty Images AsiaPac via New York Times

And, lo and behold, I now have proof I had good reason to be skeptical, or even cynical.

Skeptical over claims; cynical over Obama fellators like Jon Chait and his turd-polishing on this issue.

The reality is far different than Chinese lies (nothing new on Chinese lies) or Jon Chait's claims (nothing new on his fellating or turd-polishing).

Instead, just in time for upcoming Paris climate talks, we learn Beijing isn't even close.

China has emitted as much as 17 percent more carbon dioxide than claimed.

Here’s just how bad it is:

The sharp upward revision in official figures means that China has released much more carbon dioxide — almost a billion more tons a year according to initial calculations — than previously estimated. 

The increase alone is greater than the whole German economy emits annually from fossil fuels.

Just. Wow.

As I said on Twitter, China’s been cheating like Volkswagen.

And, again, this is not surprising to me, though it's nice to see the details.

So, if you believe this:

The Chinese government has promised to halt the growth of its emissions of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse pollutant from coal and other fossil fuels, by 2030.

I’ve got some clean air in Beijing to sell you.

That said, it’s unclear how much of this was conscious cheating and how much of it was “falling through the cracks” stuff in a massive, likely understaffed, government bureaucracy for a nation of 1.3 billion people:

The new data, which appeared recently in an energy statistics yearbook published without fanfare by China’s statistical agency, show that coal consumption has been underestimated since 2000, and particularly in recent years. The revisions were based on a census of the economy in 2013 that exposed gaps in data collection, especially from small companies and factories.

Part seems “falling through the cracks,” based on length of time. But, the fact that it’s gotten worse in recent years makes some of it deliberate.

Meanwhile, are the “exposers” being marched to some Chinese gulag for their sins?

And, speaking of “buying,” I hope the more naïve about climate change aren’t buying the new round of (carbon-inducing) horse manure from the mouth of Xi Jinping:

When President Xi Jinping proposed that China’s emissions stop growing by 2030, he did not say what level they would reach by then. The new numbers may mean that the peak will be higher, but they also raise hopes that emissions will crest many years sooner, Mr. Yang, the climate adviser, said. 

“I think this implies that we’re closer to a peak, because there’s also been a falloff in coal consumption in the past couple of years,” he said.

Yeah, right. Why should we trust your data on coal consumption, either? Because, as the story shows, your country’s lied about that before.

I wouldn't believe Xi if he said it was daylight outside. I'd go outside (putting on an air mask if we were in much of China) and take a look, assuming I could even see the sun.

Speaking of, this is not just about carbon dioxide and global warming. Dirty coal is worsening Chinese smog, acid rain in China and neighboring Japan, Taiwan, North Korea and South Korea, and more.

Speaking of Taiwan? In the summit between the two Chinas, a note to Taiwanese President Ma Jing-Yeou. Wear a cup. Wear a jockstrap. Wear anything you need to protect your personal and national "family jewels."

#HERO, Houston, Dallas and #schadenfreude

Austin isn't the only city in Texas that, after last night's vote, continues to offer more legal protection to transgendered people than Houston.

El Paso ranks even, or a bit better. San Antonio and Fort Worth rank higher.

And, per Lone Star Q, only slightly behind Austin?

Dallas.

Now, Austin doesn't have the infrastructure for an NCAA Final Four, or even a regional final. San Antonio does. But, only one city besides Dallas can host a Super Bowl.

And ... it's Arlington!

That said, Jethro Jerry Jones may get to have Jethroworld shine in Dallas reflective glow, and host a second Super Bowl before post-old Rice Stadium Houston hosts one.

After all, Phoenix lost a Super Bowl over the state of Arizona not having a Martin Luther King Day.

And, it's not just sports. General Electric has indicated there's no way it will move its corporate HQ to anywhere in Texas as long as we have economic nutbars representing our state in Congress. (Frankly, I partially disagree with the inside-the-Mopac state media punditry on the Export-Import Bank, but that's a sidebar.)

There's also convention business and such.

There's already been speculation about how long before Houston faces a formal boycott.

I said last night on Twitter that I would l laugh my ass off if some Dallas business leaders actually bankrolled such a boycott on the hopes that it not only steered events away from Dallas, but steered them to Houston.

Now, I've got blogging and personal friends in Houston, and like them all.

That said, this reminds me of several years ago, when I was interviewing for a newspaper position with a daily not too far away from greater Helltown.

I was asked, by the chief editor: "Are you a Houston person or a Dallas person?"

Now, I"m not a native Texan. But, I'd already lived in this state long enough that (besides laughing internally that Austin and San Antonio don't make the cut) I knew what it was about, and knew what my answer was.

I'm still a Dallas person.

A lot of native Texans call Dallas the New York City of Texas. It's meant as an insult when it's actually, of course, a compliment.

Houston? I used to (before that interview, for not quite a year) live between Houston and College Station. Never grew on me (other than the mold, perhaps). Maybe in part it was because I was "homesick" for Dallas. Anyway, Houston to me never compared to Dallas.

In reality? Houston strikes me as Los Angeles with snakes, mosquitoes and humidity. And, no, that's not a compliment, even before the failed HERO vote.

That said, unlike Indiana, when the state considered passing a bigoted "religious freedom" ordinance, I don't know how Houston business leaders could readily reverse the results of last night. I suspect many Houstonians would dig in their heels against such an effort.

For public consumption, the NFL has said for now it's not moving the 2017 Super Bowl for now, and the NCAA has said it's not moving next spring's Final Four.

Is that written in stone? No. Now the NFL had two-plus years to move the 1993 Super Bowl from Phoenix, not one-plus, but it's doable.

First, sponsoring advertisers have to be threatened with boycotts. Second, Houstonians who were pro-HERO (and actually voted?) must man the picket lines. Things go forward from there.

Vote no to #txlege stupidity; oppose 6 state constitutional amendments

As we near the start of early voting, Texas Election Law has a good rundown on this year's amendments.

And, I add some follow-up thoughts of my own.

I'm going to start with Amendment 7, with this separate piece here noting that the total environmental and other cost of more road-building isn't priced into it.

I oppose Amendment 7 for another reason. I oppose it because there is no need for an amendment to encumber money in such a way. The Lege just needed to vote for that to happen. Yes, it can't I hugely dislike state constitutional amendments that result from the Lege refusing to do its job. Yes, one Legislature can't legally bind another one two years down the road. So? Each Legislature then needs to vote to do its job every two years.

Again, regardless of the issue of whether or not Texas should be devoting more and more tax dollars to covering the ground in pavement (versus more mass transit, or encouraging less sprawl in our urban areas), we need to stop letting the allegedly fiscally conservative Texas Legislature refuse to do its elected job.

The other six propositions?

As a community newspaper editor, I loathe Prop. 1. Vote no. The Texas Legislature, even as the latest school finance lawsuit sits in the docket in the Texas Supreme Court, has a decade-plus history under its current wingnut overlords of misfunding and underfunding state public schools. Don't let them do it even worse with this amendment.

The amendment is even worse for having required school districts to craft their fiscal 2016 budgets in an anticipatory fashion, rather than waiting a year to kick in. It's the poster child for everything wrong with Republican Austin.

In fact, I think it is, by constitutional law definition, an ex post facto law, and the Constitution of the USofA, if not the Texas one, bars states from doing that.

I cite Article I, Section 10:

No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tenderin Payment of Debts; pass any Bill of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts, or grant any Title of Nobility.

And, the way I read this amendment, it’s an ex post facto law.

Besides, who wouldn't like to see Texas school districts sue the state AGAIN? (Besides the Lege not wanting to see that, that is.) And, to that end, I have asked the Texas Association of School Boards if it sees things that way. I'll post any response I get.

Update: TASB notes that it serves primarily as a "source of information and support for school board members." However, it will be looking at Prop. 1 "closely." (That said, whether taking the lead, or filing an amicus brief, TASB could, theoretically, be part of legal action if it wanted, as I see things.)

Even better than the Easy button!
One of Amazon's few good things.

Plus, that's not all the nastiness. As Texas Election Law notes, as part of the continuing steaming pile of budget-related legal notices the state is dumping on local taxing entities, a related Senate bill requires school districts to write PR flak for the Lege in their tax bills.

Prop. 2 deserves TEL's snark. "We" all in Republican Austin love veterans, just like in Republican D.C., except when it comes to medical bills, mental health bills, etc. But, it's worth a yes vote.

Prop. 3? Absolutely vote no. The capital of Texas is in Austin, and if alleged government-hating Republicans dislike that fact so much that they don't want official residences there, the answer is simple: Stop holding elective statewide office.

Prop. 4? Allegedly pro-free enterprise Republican Austin already gives too many handouts to our state's professional sports teams, what with past tweaks in hotel-motel and rental car taxes and other things. File 13 this nonsense. Besides, we don't need more lotteries in the state in general, between the Texas Lottery, PowerBall and Mega Millions. Period and end of story.

Prop. 5? Absolutely vote no on an amendment that violates at least the letter of Texas' anti-corruption legislation, and possibly the spirit of it as well. What next? Counties of up to 20,000?

Prop. 6? Vote no on this, just because it's a bit of anti-Obama, pro-NRA nuttery.

There you have it. It's OK to vote Yes on 2, but you don't have to. (And, sorry, Perry, but we disagree on three of seven.

Otherwise? Pull the "party line" No lever. Send the Lege a message as part of voting No.

Also send a message to Progress Texas, which lost its "Progress" label by calling Prop. 1 a "toss-up." Prop. 4 I can give it a pass, but ignoring the anti-corruption background of Prop. 5 with a Yes suggestion? No way Jose.

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Meanwhile, Houstonians who've yet to vote, don't "hold out" for a HERO; go help create one. Make your city more Dallas-like.

Do the #Cardinals really need to resign Jason Heyward?

Jason Heyward:
Key to many
Cards dominos
falling in place

With the World Series over, the clock started ticking today on a five-day exclusive negotiating window MLB teams have with free agents on their current roster. After that, players are free to talk to any teams they want to. MLB Trade Rumors has the details of this and other pertinent calendar dates.

For the Cardinals, there's one big free agent, of course.

If we go by Fangraphs' rating, St. Louis Cardinals right fielder (and occasional center fielder) Jason Heyward is the second-most-valuable free agent on the market, after Yoenis Cespedes. This list does not include Zack Greinke, but Fangraphs ranks Heyward a skoosh above him, even if Greinke opts out of his Dodgers contract. And, speaking of opt-out contracts, I'll get to that in a minute.

If we go by Baseball-Reference, the two outfielders tie for first. Among position players, that is.

I'm not so sabermetrically advanced to understand how B-Ref and FG can differ 3.5 WAR points on Greinke, but they do. He's at 5.9 WAR with Fangraphs and 9.3 with B-Ref. But, looking at all of the B-Ref black ink Greinke has on various advance statistics, somebody at Fangraphs needs to give its analytics formulas, computers or whatever, a swift kick or else consignment to the tire fire.

So, Heyward is tied for being the second-best position player free agent. And, he's the Fielding Bible winner at right field.

That said, he was just 25 this year, while Cespedes was 29 and Greinke 31.

That gets to opt-out contracts, like Greinke's, especially since position players, unlike pitchers, don't usually have to worry about UCLs and Tommy John surgery.

This all said, who else do the Cardinals have for the outfield?

Matt Holliday's a fixture in left (and no, not at first) for either one or two more years. I suspect the Cards use the $1M buyout rather than pay $17M for 2017, given the amount of outfield talent possibilities, unless Matt accepts a two-year deal for no more than $20M total. Nominal starting center fielder Jon Jay has one year left, since GM John Mozeliak, in one of his head-scratchers, bought out Jay's second and third years of arbitration both before the start of 2015. Backup CF Peter Bourjos has apparently maxed out his potential and is good for nothing more than backup/defensive replacement outfielder, pinch-hitter and pinch-runner use.

But, there's more available. Randal Grichuk showed, in half a season, he can not only mash, he can patrol center at near league average, based on an assessment of limited duty there. And, as a late call-up, Stephen Piscotty showed he can also swing the bat, and be a corner OF, at least, and also a corner IF. His long-term status depends on two things: whether or not Mo resigns Heyward, and if current 1B Matt Adams does or does not show further development. Piscotty at least wasn't a defensive Matt Holliday at first, but, I'm sure Mo would prefer him in the outfield. Tommy Pham shows enough to indicate he's at Jon Jay replacement level, at least.

So, Mo could let Heyward walk and play a Holliday-Grichuk-Piscotty OF, or Holliday-Jay-Grichuk, with Piscotty swinging between OF and first base. But, with Holliday gone after 2016, I would prefer to resign Heyward, and I damn well hope Mo feels the same.

Resigning Heyward gives you: Holliday-Grichuk-Heyward, with Piscotty as that fourth OF/1B combo. Jon Jay? He's trade bait for a backup catcher for Yadi Molina, since almost anybody is better than Tony Cruz. If Mo has brains, which he doesn't always, this backup catcher not only takes 10 more games off Yadi's schedule than previous years, he can play 1B.

The Cards have the money to sign Heyward. Mo knows that, and Cardinals fans who don't know it need to know it.

TX progressives talk Clintons, voting, debates, climate

The Texas Progressive Alliance hopes everyone took advantage of their opportunity to vote as it brings you this week's roundup. If you've not voted yet, statewide, here's recommendations to vote no on 6 of 7 constitutional amendments.

Meanwhile, we congratulate the Kansas City Royals for winning the World Series and invite you to read on.

Off the Kuff noted that one way to improve turnout in municipal elections is to hold them in even-numbered years.

Libby Shaw at Texas Kaos and contributing to Daily Kos calls out Republican lawmakers for their cowardice in failing to pass a viable budget that will actually pay for things.  TX Prop 7: GOP Asks Voters to Rob Peter to pay Paul.

SocraticGadfly notes that, unless the Clinton Foundation completes a massive accounting cleanup in just two more weeks, Hillary (and the other Clintons) could face a problem far worse than her email server or Trey Gowdy, and that would be the IRS.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme wants the world to see the 27 immigrant women standing up for themselves at Hutto immigration center.

A few late-breaking developments in Houston's forthcoming elections were posted by PDiddie at Brains and Eggs.

Neil at All People Have Value took a picture of recent high water in Houston. Everyday life is interesting. All People Have Value is part of NeilAquino.com.

Jobsanger noted that 62 percent of Americans want campaign finance regulation.

TxSharon said people could avoid the fracking reaper with one of several information events.

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And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

The TSTA Blog ponders the end of the standardized testing regime.

RG Ratcliffe names and excoriates the main climate villain at Exxon.

Patrick Michels analyzes Texas high school graduation data.

Paradise in Hell grades the latest GOP debate.

Better Texas Blog highlights the second year of modest rate increases for the Texas health insurance marketplace.

Texas Observer created "Things They Left Behind," a photo-based essay on possessions found with dead immigrants.

#Oilprices to remain low for a few years?

Chevron has confirmed it will lay off thousands more, as it indicates, by cuts in out-year spending, that it expects no major rebound until at least 2018.

More and more companies in the oil patch keep writing off more debt. Per that, and per my reporting in smaller corners of the oil patch, smaller companies are starting to face tax lawsuits from county-level taxing entities.

Given that the government, if back taxes are owed, is by definition first creditor on a bankruptcy, various investors who pounded sand down an oil patch rathole may really be in trouble.

When the write-downs lead to dire actions, including forced sell-offs of equipment or other actions, that then ripples through the industry. It affects steelmakers and others. They, in turn, if already stressed, may approach their own bankruptcies. Or enter their own defaults on paying taxes, as I've already seen.