#Fracking and a bridge too far?

While I don't totally like fracking for oil and gas, worrying about groundwater contamination from either the original fracking liquid and its reinjection, or earthquakes caused by its reinjection, and while I think the Texas Legislature was wrong in banning bans on fracking, at the same time, I think Denton anti-fracking activists should have considered a more incremental approach.

Like that of the city of Dallas.

Technically, you can still frack for gas in Dallas. However, various setback regulations have made that nearly impossible, at least not without a 2/3 supermajority of the Dallas City Council.

But, the new anti-anti-fracking bill now signed into law by Gov. Abbott may undercut Dallas, too, which probably wouldn't have been the case before.

Sometimes, strategery is the better part of valor.

That said, the frackers' refusal to be more environmentally conscious, as well as address noise/light/air pollution issues in urban areas, and the state's refusal to deal with this, led Denton voters to support a fracking ban in the first place.

To riff on what I saw on Twitter, bigger than a uterus and smaller than a fracking truck is still under local control, I guess.

Meanwhile, jokes from some conservatives aside, how many fracking opponents drive Tahoes and Suburbans that just about never leave paved streets? (If you do need that much room, minivans are cheaper and get better gas mileage.)

Yes, Houston, we appear to maybe have a recession

Chris Tomlinson of the Chronicle gives us the overview of economies both Texas and federal that are struggling.

Higher oil prices may have some in the energy industry rejoicing, but there is growing evidence that the local and national economies are faring a little worse in this downturn than expected.
 When oil began plummeting last fall, analysts expected the lower gasoline prices to boost consumer spending, while local observers bragged about how the regional economy was no longer dependent on oil and gas. But consumers are not spending their extra cash, and Houston's economy is not as shockproof as many people touted.
 The U.S. economy also may have slipped into recession in the first quarter, and that means it won't offset Houston's slowdown as much as anticipated.

None of this should be any surprised.

After the "end" of the Great Recession (scare quotes needed), the rich got richer, and the middle class, as well as the poor, got plenty of nothing. There's been millions of stories written about stagnant wages in the last 3-4 years for anybody not part of the 1 percent. Along with people using more of what income they had to pay down old debt, that means there's not been an explosion of new consumer purchases the past four years. And, that probably has led to a mild second recession.

Texas? Chris goes on to remind that half of Houston's jobs have at least some connection to the energy sector. That number is probably about 30 percent in the Metroplex, 50 percent in Amarillo and Lubbock or more, certainly more in the Permian, and maybe 10 percent in San Antonio with the shale boom.

Well, we know what happened to the shale boom.

And, despite cuts in overhead costs, that boom won't return any time soon. First, the Saudis aren't going to stop or cut pumping. Second, Brazil and Russia are ramping up. 

Thus, there is STILL surplus oil sloshing around the system. That's part of why oil will likely remain below $100/bbl for a full decade.

Maybe recession is too harsh, but it's likely that stagnation will be the word of the day for at least months, if not a couple of years, ahead.

And, parts of the economy that are growing could help by starting to pay people more.

Otherwise, yes, this shows that "Rick Perry's Texas Miracle" was based in large part on a single-issue economy of oil — along with a second-issue economy of high levels of Hispanic immigration, as much as tea partiers want to try to deny that. I've written about that plenty of times before. Click the "RickPerrysTexasMiracle" label. 

On the other hand, we have two counterpoints.

First, housing starts went through the roof in April.

And, per that pull quote from Chris' piece? National first-quarter economic numbers have been undermeasured for decades, for whatever reason.

It's possible the Texas economy is moving into recession. The national one? Probably not.

Why demographics don't guarantee Democratic wins, part 172

Having lived a fair chunk of my adult life in black-plurality or black-majority areas, those green circles' locations, in general, do not surprise me. It's a bit sad. And, it has political ramifications. If the GOP did not have 50 years of perception, and reality, with the "Southern shift," of having a large anti-black element, it would be getting more black voters precisely because of things like this.

Click here for an explanation of the data source for the graph (it's the 2007 version of Pew's religious study; a new one came out earlier this month, but the raw data from it isn't yet available), the calibration of the graph and more.

In Southwestern states (counting Texas as Southwestern for this purpose), one should note the rise of various Hispanic evangelicals, especially Spanish-language Baptists, whether affiliated with the SBC or not. They're not specifically marked on this chart, but, for the sake of argument, I'll place them where the SBC is, roughly.

Update, Jan. 17, 2018: Expect more and more of them to come, AND to look at allying with the GOP, as evangelical religion continues to grow in Latin America AND to more openly ally with center-right parties there.

Speaking of Baptists, one sidebar. It's interesting that American Baptists, while more liberal-minded on evolution than their Southern Baptist kin, don't track any higher than them on environmental activism. I wonder if that holds true for other federal regulatory activism.

That said, once we get outside these two issues, black and white evangelicals don't totally track together:

In Grant’s version, evangelicals cluster together as advocates for small government in general who nevertheless want government to take a bigger role in promoting morality, while historically black church members cluster together as advocates for greater government action and greater role of government in morality. 

(I count the AME as "evangelical" by focusing on the M, not the E.)

For people who think demographics will thus magically guarantee Democratic party success in the future, this is why I have said before and say again: Think again.

That includes people who think "most Hispanics are Catholic." Actually, only 55 percent are. Of the Protestant Hispanics, more than 70 percent are evangelical. And, among those Catholic Hispanics, if their immigrants, they likely are more conservative on social issues than US Catholics, anyway. Definitely, a large chunk of those evangelical Protestant Catholics are Latino immigrants. And, more and more of Hispanics are from those Protestant-explosion areas of Latin America south of Mexico.

I've written about this plenty of times before, most notably here, with detailed graphics, most notably the one at right.

Key takeaway from that "here" link? Hispanic Protestants, in Bush-Kerry, broke almost as much for Bush as did white evangelicals, as that graphic shows, at right, with original story here.

Pew offers more information of relevance. The biggie is that a little less than half of Latinos are Catholic and a full one-fifth are evangelical Protestant.

I've also covered somewhat related issues, namely, the idea that minorities may look more to Washington and less to Austin for help in general.

But that graphic above is the biggie, and is reinforced by the one at right. A growing number of Hispanics are evangelical Protestants, and are likely to vote Republican. Catholic Hispanics may have different concerns than other Democrats. And religious "nones" may be tuned out to politics as well as religion.

(Dos Centavos claims Latinos nationally are moving further left on the two hot button social issues. Without links in the piece, I remain a bit skeptical. Sorry.

Now, per a blog post by Perry, which is where I found that Dos Centavos link, yes, the leading group within Hispanics or Latinos is still Mexicans, and certainly in Texas. But, sub-Mexican Latinos, that is, from further south in Latin America, is a rapidly growing portion of Latinos. And, the evangelical Protestant explosion from that part of Latin America has made some inroads in Mexico, too.)

Anyway, back to all these differences.

Again, if you're Texas or national Democrat type, please, think again. Don't assume Hispanics are Catholic, and don't make other assumptions related to that. I mean, if you've lived in this state for any amount of time, especially if you've gotten off the main drags in big cities, you can see plenty of churches with names like "Primera Iglesia Bautista." Folks, those churches aren't inhabited by Anglos, and in case you can't figure out that last word readily enough, they ain't Catholic.

And also don't assume that Hispanics, whether Catholic or non-Catholic, are going to agree with all white liberal Democrats on social issues; don't assume that Hispanic Catholics dine at the same cafeteria as white liberal cafeteria Catholics. And, if they're immigrants, unlike African-Americans, they have no expectations of socially activist governments in general.

Now, it's true that many of the Hispanics from further south than Mexico are illegal immigrants and can't vote. But many already have kids born here the USofA who will soon be old enough to do so, if not already. And, many of them, like their parents, are still involved with the local Primera Iglesia Bautista.

Carrying assumptions about Hispanics, especially recent arrivals, is part of how Democrats are continuing to lose elections in Texas.

Let's also not forget Maslow's hierarchy of values. For immigrant Hispanics living in colonia-type conditions, clean running water, an indoor flush toilet, and a secure job that pays at least a few cents above crap, long before they worry about gay rights or even reproductive choice.

I don't recall Wendy Davis, or previous Democratic gubernatorial candidates, campaigning in the Valley on these issues. Until they do, they probably won't draw much enthusiasm.

Finally, on a different demographic, Slate's Jamelle Bouie says Democrats shouldn't lean too hard on the age demographic either.

Progressive bloggers talk about the #txlege, Julian Castro, light rail and more

The Texas Progressive Alliance doesn't need hindsight to know that invading Iraq was a tragically stupid decision, and offers its condolences to any innocents affected by the Waco biker shootout, including my deploring of some racist spinning of what actually happened, as it brings you this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff is pleasantly surprised to hear that the Houston Metropolitan Transit Authority and US Rep. John Culberson have reached an accord in their longstanding feud over funding for light rail in Houston.

Letters from Texas provides a step-by-step guide to using your hypocrisy to justify your bigotry.

Libby Shaw at Texas Kaos and contributing to Daily Kos calls it as she sees it when the U.S. Congress cut Amtrak's budget within hours of the train wreck outside of Philadelphia last week.  Republican Austerity Kills. Literally.

Nonsequiteuse asks you to consider the long game for progressives in Texas, and explains why she's building progressive infrastructure and working the next generation of leaders through New Leaders Council.

From WCNews at Eye on Williamson. The GOP's end of session plan for tax cuts is getting near completion, Give It All To Business - The GOP Tax Compromise.

In a roundup of events, Socratic Gadfly says this week in Texas politics was probably even nuttier than normal ó a high bar to clear.

Julian Castro is Hllary Clinton's pick for running mate, according to Henry Cisneros.  That suggests a Latino will also be the vice-presidential nominee of the Republicans.  PDiddie at Brains and Eggs thinks that might be the most interesting thing that could liven up an otherwise completely predictable 2016 presidential season.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme is surprised that a Republican was so honest about tax cuts being just for the business cronies.  Who needs roads, schools, or safety inspections.  The rich can buy their own.  But, the shrinking middle class and the poor must pay for what's left.

Neil at All People Have Value posted about 11 pictures he keeps in his phone that involve death. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

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And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

Texas Clean Air Matters examines what Tesla's Powerwall home energy storage battery means for Texas.

Better Texas Blog names the least worst way to under-invest in schools, college access and health care systems.

Stephanie Wittels Wachs documents her efforts to get the Legislature to require insurance companies to cover the cost of hearing aids for children under 18.

The Lunch Tray calls self-regulation of kids' food advertising a "doomed effort".

Paradise in Hell warns us that the anti-gay crowd isn't going anywhere.

BEYONDBones explains why you should care about endangered species.

The Texas Election Law Blog tracks what has happened to election law-related legislation so far this session.

#Racist lies about #TwinPeaksShooting already being spread

I see the racist and outlaw biker lies about the Waco shootings at the Twin Peaks restaurant are already being spread far and wide, how this was "just" a mild little dispute between two biker groups, how nothing would have happened if the police hadn't mishandled it, etc.

Wrong. It was between two outlaw biker gangs, one of which, the Bandidos, is notorious enough to have its own Wiki page. Everybody arrested was white; many arrested were white, many having SS and other white/racial tattoos. Police had been checking on the biker recruitment situation at the restaurant for months.

So, don't listen to any outlaw racist biker lies you're hearing about this, folks.

Here's the reality, per Waco Tribune reports, which are mirrored by local TV, etc.

The Bandidos, a self-avowedly outlaw and even 1-percenter biker gang serious enough to have its own Wiki page, and the Cossacks, had both been recruiting for members during get-togethers at Twin Peaks for months. Waco PD says that management of the Twin Peaks remained uncooperative in addressing this.

Second, the cops botched nothing. The gang members had multiple chances to obey legitimate police orders, and refused.

Third, per that picture at left, we have just the opposite of Baltimore, Ferguson, etc. We have a bunch of white people who refused to obey police repeatedly.

And, yet, they're being treated far more gingerly by police than were the Baltimore or Ferguson protesters, which itself says something about police issues.

Remember, nobody in Ferguson or Baltimore killed at least nine people at one time. The people in that picture may well have.

Then there's this; note the SS tattoo on the guy at left. Gee, that's not a racism marker, is it? Of course, Breitbart Texas had to dogpile.

Meanwhile, Twin Peaks' Waco management now, in another Trib story, is doing the post-crime PR blather about "ready to cooperate," etc.

Jay Patel, operating partner in Twin Peaks’ Waco franchise, posted on the restaurant’s Facebook page: “We are horrified by the criminal, violent acts that occurred outside of our Waco restaurant today. We share in the community’s trauma. Our priority is to provide a safe and enjoyable environment for our customers and employees, and we consider the police our partners in doing so. Our management team has had ongoing and positive communications with the police and we will continue to work with them."

Don't buy it. And, sadly, how can an Indian-American worship the dollar that much, or whatever, to put up with this in the first place?

That said, Mr. Patel, your blather's probably too late. I guess a lot of other people, besides me, have been tweeting or facebooking the corporate office, which says it may well revoke your franchise license. Let's hope so.

UPDATE, 11:30 A.M. It is so. Patel's franchise agreement has been revoked.

But, this has nothing to do with outlaw bikers. This has nothing to do with outlaw bikers willfully shooting it out with police. This has nothing to do with any of these outlaw bikers being racist.

Right.

At least the police are "cleaning up" now, with more than 190 arrests. And, authorities are keeping the restaurant closed for at least the rest of the week.

UPDATE 2: Here's a good profile of the Bandidos in the Washington Post, which links to an even better, longer Texas Monthly piece by Skip Hollandsworth eight years ago.

UPDATE 3: Not all the lies are from racists. Others are from hardcore libertarians who — whether racist or not — are strongly anti-police. Some of them are probably militia movement types. (And, that movement, while not prima facie racist, has more than its share of racists.)

And, in both cases, let's not forget that nearly 85 percent of whites who are murdered are killed by other whites.

And, the fact that Waco PD has reported that autopsies show that 4 of the 9 bikers were killed by police up to four officers fired shots indicates they're being reasonably transparent, working to process evidence, etc. This is no false flag, no setup, no nothing like that.

Indeed, Texas DPS had warned on May 1 about possible Bandido-Cossack violence. The FBI reportedly also had information about a possible "war" between the two gangs. (All 9 dead were from the two.)

The bulletin said the FBI had received information that Bandidos had discussed "going to war with Cossacks." It also outlined several recent incidents between the two groups, including one instance in March when about 10 Cossacks forced a Bandido to pull over along Interstate 35 near Waco and attacked him with "chains, batons and metal pipes before stealing his motorcycle," WFAA reported. 

 That same day, a group of Bandidos confronted a Cossack member fueling up at a truck stop in Palo Pinto County, west of Fort Worth, the bulletin said. When the Cossack member refused to remove the Texas patch from his vest, the Bandidos hit him in the head with a hammer and stole it. 

 There are other documented instances of violence between the groups. 

 Last March, two members of the Bandidos were indicted in connection with the stabbing of two Cossacks at an Abilene steakhouse in March 2014. 

 And in December, three Bandidos were arrested for a shooting at a Fort Worth motorcycle bar that left one dead and two others wounded. Fort Worth police said the victims were known members of a criminal motorcycle gang. 

Add in that the Cossacks reportedly have some type of affiliation with Hell's Angels, and you have a recipe for ongoing trouble.

The Cossacks are not members of a confederation of biker gangs and groups that had a scheduled meeting at Twin Peaks on Sunday. The Cossacks apparently tried to crash the meeting, and somebody ran over somebody else's foot in the parking lot.

The officers believed to have actually fired at the bikers are being investigated, as is normal. Because of the biker worries, in what's not normal, but understandable, they're staying on duty during the investigation.

Understandable that they fired, as police report bikers had 30 or so guns. And, the nine killed, by whoever's guns, have now been identified.

Sin-corrupted writing for evangelicals

My college alumni association's newsletter prompted this.

A classmate of a relative, for his denomination's monthly magazine, has an article about "Sin-Corrupted Sex," focusing on (by Lutheran/Orthodox/Catholic/Episcopalian count) the Sixth Commandment.

Well, ignoring the first two as god-oriented, and setting aside the issue of whether any Christians besides Seventh-Day Adventists are getting the Third right (yes, the book of Hebrews talks about people meeting on the first day of the week, but neither Jesus, nor Paul, is ever recorded as promoting that), there's seven human-oriented ones.

Sin-corrupted children? That said, the Fourth Commandment was written by priests leading a society of patriarchal goatherds. Evangelicals would never talk about sin-corrupted fatherhood, sin-corrupted child or spousal abuse, etc.

Sin-corrupted murder? Well, a few evangelicals might dodge around things like the murder of Wichita, Kansas abortion provider Dr. Tiller. A lot more of them might dodge around just war and lying into war issues related to President George W. Bush's invasion of Iraq.

Sin-corrupted theft? Most evangelicals would surely never write about things like wage and hour theft by employers.

Sin-corrupted false witness? Oh, no, evangelicals, at least white ones, would steer clear of bearing false witness about calling inner-city minorities "thugs," calling all people on public assistance "lazy" or "frauds" or "cheaters" or "drug abusers," etc.

Sin-corrupted wife-coveting? The patriarchy of husband-coveting not being mentioned would not be addressed.

Sin-corrupted slave-coveting? Ahh, the last of the commandments. But, since the Civil War was not about slavery, there's no need to talk about coveting here.