SocraticGadfly

May 03, 2007

Sping slump, not thaw, on housing - and cars

Tentative signs say April, while not as bad as March’s 18-year-worst slump in sales, will show another decline in housing sells.

Realtors’ associations may try to blame the subprime mortgage issue this month, as they blamed the weather for the March bad news.

Don’t buy it; the market was in trouble even without the subprime issue. Bubble-like trouble. This just made it worse yet, on top of what was already bad.

And, related to that, it wasn’t a good month in Detroit either. Why? In part, the housing sag, removing more and more home equity credit from the auto-buying market. For the alleged Big Three, vs. Japanese competition, the high reliance on pickups and SUVs in the face of another gas price surge doesn’t help.

Silver lining on House failure to override Bush veto of Iraq bill

The vote to override got four more votes than the original spending bill itself. Momentum even among Republicans not enthralled to or bamboozled by Bush continues to shift.

That said, the Democrats have two strategies remaining.

One is short-term, month-to-month supplemental bills. Advantage? The GOP would have to vote on the war time after time. Disadvantage? Not even a benchmark, let alone a timetable.

The second is to send a full funding bill, without timetables but with benchmarks. Advantage? Enough GOPers might vote on this one that Bush’s veto threat gets less serious. Maybe there’s enough coalescence for an override.

But, a bill without timetables is toothless, especially if the spending amounts are for a full year. The Democrats would further lose a voter like me, unless they trimmed at least a symbolic 2-3 percent from the spending level.

This note at Talking Points Memo has more background.

GM’s one once-profitable sector now crumbling, too

GMAC, due to its mortgages as well as car loans, used to be the one segment of the company pulling it through tough times. Well, with the subprime mortgage crisis spreading, that is no longer the case.
While still profitable overall, the General’s profits fell 90 percent for the first quarter since a year ago.

May 02, 2007

Texas Senate passes journalism shield law

I give the bill a B/B-minus. Biggest concern is it defines bloggers outside the loop; the story isn’t clear about “independent journalists” or freelancers being covered or not, as well. And, I’m kind of iffy about the bill defining who is or is not a journalist, in general. I think the definition, if any, should be in the act of journalism.

Newspaper future not totally grim

The Web is hitting new marks in ad revenue:
According to a recent survey, for the first time, advertising revenue for local newspaper Web sites last month exceeded local TV advertising. One of the reasons for the improvement in Web ad dollars is the video now being produced for these sites. Video has a big advantage. It can be attached to video commercials.

In other words, the traditional newspaper is becoming more and more video-like.

Now, won’t this also lead to a push to increase broadband speeds in the U.S.? (By the way, average “broadband” speeds in the U.S. are dead last in the industrialized world.) If so, at what price? And, will more cities start offering Wi-Fi as a city amenity, putting more pressure on private providers?

Exhibit A against the War on Drugs

Cops kill 92-year-old, plant dope, lie later

This story shows all the major issues wrong with the War on Drugs: uncritical use of informants, failure to evaluate informants’ motives in snitching, the use of no-knock warrants, lying to get such warrants, lying to cover up afterward, and the ethos that can develop in drug enforcement.

Plus, what in the hell is the difference between a “certified” and an “uncertified” snitch? Do you go somewhere to get a piece of paper? Do you have to reapply or get continuing education credits?