A new predictive angle on when Peak Oil will hit

Swedish graduate student Fredrik Robelius, a physicist and petroleum engineer at the University of Uppsala in Sweden, uses a “bottom-up” approach, versus the top-down version of traditional Hubbert’s Peak modeling, but still arrives at a similar prediction as more pessimistic Hubbert’s modelers.

He says the peak could hit next year and should hit by 2018.

Robelius built his model, which serves as his doctoral dissertation, after analyzing the fields’ past production rates and their ultimate recoverable reserves. Then he predicted how production will decline after peaking by incorporating rates of drop-off observed at other fields, ranging from six percent in a best-case scenario to 16 percent in a worst-case scenario. Finally, he combined his results with estimated forecasts for new field developments from sources such as the deep ocean and oil sands in Canada, but he says that these are unlikely to offset the upcoming declines from the giant fields — and there is little chance that new giant fields will be discovered in the future.

Of course, he’s already being poo-poohed by energy analysts with too much invested in believing otherwise.

The lack of giant field discovery is a no-brainer. No megafield has been discovered since Alaska’s North Slope, well over 30 years ago. And, some megafields of the present, like Mexico’s Cantarell, and British/Norwegian North Sea production, will be lucky if they only decline mildly in the next several years rather than plunging off a cliff.

More fun in science — a 20-foot tall fungus

Extinct for more than 350 million years, so no “Jurassic Portabello” ideas, please.

This monster comes from an era where trees were only about one-sixth its height and no animals were yet on dry land.

Today, we or other animals would eat it to extinction.

But, it’s another reflection on the wonders of science.

Found — one fossil rainforest, 300my old

That’s scientific shorthand for 300 million years old.

The world’s oldest known rainforest has been found inside an Illinois coal mine.

To anybody who talks about how “dry” science is, picture being with the scientists who walked through this.

There’s plenty of “magic” in scientific exploration.

Barack Obama: Just another internationalist Democrat?

A nice speech, this one to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

But, not a lot beyond “nice.”

I’m still looking for a Democratic candidate to mention Peak Oil, and not just global warming to the degree it gets mentioned in this context, as an element in our future foreign policy.

With the world’s most high-tech, high-mechanized infantry, Peak Oil hits our “throw weight” harder than it does anybody else’s.

Beyond that, this speech was mainly platitudes.

Rick Perry hypocrisy watch

If you’re going to proclaim this as “Cover the Uninsured” week, doesn’t that imply you actually intend to do something about it?

John Edwards needs to learn the diff between fair trade and industrial pandering

Especially when the issue at hand involves global warming and Peak Oil issues.

Actually, the more cynical liberal part of me knows he damn well knows the difference, and he’s being “just another politician.”

Edwards said in Michigan he opposes a U.S.-South Korea automotive free trade agreement because it lets Seoul keep a tax on engine displacement, calling that “unfair.”

Hey, we have a tax on gas-guzzlers here that falls most heavily on German imports. Get real, Edwards; you’re pandering to the auto industry and auto workers with the same scare tactics the Big Three have used on UAW rank and file for years to oppose further CAFÉ increases.

If you then claim to be worried about global warming (no Democratic candidate has talked seriously about Peak Oil), I’ll bust you in the chops.