June 19, 2014

It's once again time to swat down the David Ortiz Hall of Fame claims

Craig Calcaterra at NBC is the latest to get on my wrong side regarding David Ortiz and the HOF, with this, over Ortiz's bitching about an official scorer's ruling:
Let’s ... focus of the pettiness of a guy with a Hall of Fame resume throwing a little temper tantrum over a scoring call that will matter not one iota in the course of this season let alone his career.
Is Ortiz already a member of the "Hall of Very Good"? Yes.

Hall of Fame? No. As I said in comments there:
Right now, in my opinion, he’s borderline … or even borderline of borderline. Barely at 2K hits, yet to hit 1,500 RBIs, despite playing AL and almost all at DH. Never has broken 7 WAR in a season per B-Ref, and only once, 4 WAA.
So, nice, but not huge.

I then linked to Jay Jaffe's JAWS list for first basemen, where he's only 33rd. I then noted:
Of the 1B ahead of him on JAWS, who aren’t yet in the HOF, there’s a number who will likely not get there at all. Keith Hernandez, Todd Helton, John Olerud, Will Clark, Mark Teixeira (yes), Fred McGriff, Norm Cash, Dolph Camilli (yes!). 
I added that this did NOT include PEDers like Rafael Palmeiro and Mark McGwire. And yes, with Ortiz's name having been on a certain list linked to the New York Times, and his stats zoom when going from Boston to Minnesota, we (at least those of us who consider this a factor in general) have to take that into account, too. (As for the reality of that factor, I say it's at least "possible.)

Other people then trotted out the "but the World Series" arguments. I countered:
Don Larsen. Kirk Gibson. David Freese. Luis Gonzales.

All great WS performances. All arguably more outstanding than any single WS performance. Freese will be lucky to enter the front doors as a guest with paying double admission. Gibby’s never going to be there (and never made an All-Star team). Ditto for Larsen (and Gonzales, off the ballot after his first year this year).

If you just want “Hall of Very Good” types, I can specifically go there for a few more. Joe Carter. Bill Mazerowski who shouldn’t be in there.
So, not yet, at least, a HOFer. And, for a 1B/DH, where you carry an extra offensive burden to qualify, not THAT close.

As for what he does need to qualify? I said, assuming he plays his two guaranteed years, with enough ABs that his first optional year vests, and then, enough ABs in 2016 his second option year vests:
If he could do his, say, 2010 slashes of .270/.370/.530/.900 (rounded the slugging up 1 percentage point for nice numbers) the rest of this year and the next, and, for his last two, produce, say .255/.350/.500/.850, he’ll probably have a solid case. But, right now, he’s not even on that lower pace this year.
A finish-out like that?

He's likely be at about 2,600 hits, 1,800 RBIs, 510 HRs on counting stats. On sabermetrics, we'll give him 135 on career OPS+,  20 on career WAA and 51 on career WAR. That's allowing for his games played to decline a bit each year.

The WAA is still low in my book, but 1B/DH is a tough competition slot. On JAWS, he'd jump four places, to No. 29.

So, four years from now, at his position, he's not a slam dunk.

And, per yet another commenter on Craig's link, he may be pissed, and scrapping for base hits by scorer's change of mind, because he's not even close to what I noted:
He’s hitting .190/.301/.413 in the month of June and .163/.290/.327 over the last thirty days. Ugly numbers.
Not too good.

Counting stats aren't everything, but, if he finishes below 2,500 hits and below 500 HRs, I don't see him getting in.

1 comment:

RJ said...

True, true.......true. The less than cerebral Ortiz supporters need to use more intellect and analysis and less blind emotion. He's just not worthy.