July 08, 2014

#Cardinals trade rumors flying — Jake Peavy? Please, no

As the Cardinals struggle with injury to Michael Wacha and an uncertain-to-unlikely return, along with the longer-term loss of Jaime Garcia and the balky back of Shelby Miller, and as it seems that Tampa Bay is being greedy on what it wants in return for David Price, as it showed the A's in rejecting their offer last week, which included hot SS prospect Addison Russell, the Birds are rumored to be looking elsewhere for an arm.

Namely, Boston. Namely, Jake Peavy. (The Post Dispatch has more.)

And, I say, barf me.

That said, I don't think this baby has any legs. Not a peep about this out of, say Rosenthal. It’s prolly more ESPN hot air mixed with a BoSox trial balloon to see what fish bite.

Yes, he's long indicated interest in the Cardinals. But, an ERA+ of just 86 (with an FIP of 4.81 showing it is that bad) and a WHIP of 1.437? Peavy is replacing AA (now AAA) callup prospect Marco Gonzales with those numbers, but nothing more. He's not been above average, if that, the last two years, and been a very good or better pitcher since his Padres days.

Rumored asking price? Allen Craig.

Nope. Even though Craig is still struggling this year, either Boston eats about half of Peavy's contract or else throws in another player.

And, they're not trading Brock Holt, let alone Xander Bogaerts. And, contra one Cards fan commenting at NBC, I'll pass on Will Middlebrooks.

Mike Napoli would replace Craig in platooning 1B with Matt Adams, and could be, theoretically, asked to go behind the plate again, but, he's $16M each of the next two years.

If the Sox want a straight-up trade as a salary dump, I'd give them Peter Bourjos, but not much more.

Or, swap salary dumps. The declining Matt Holliday, if he'll waive his no-trade, for Peavy plus, say, Mike Carp, plus prospects. That opens full-time play for Oscar Taveras for sure. And, since Holliday's contract runs through 2017, this wold be a good long-term move.

I know that's an off-the-wall idea, but, Holliday's back's gotten more balky this year, and his general rate of decline has increased. Plus, without a good defensive CF out there every day, his increasing lack of range becomes more visible too. In the AL, you wouldn't have to DH him every day; you could mix LF and DH and maybe get him to learn 1B.

Anyway, if Cards are lucky, this may not happen for other reasons. Twitter rumors say the Braves and Brew Crew are also both kicking the Peavy tires. 

Also, the ESPN rumor, which Derek Goold has now given a good, swift kick, is coming from ESPN. Take it with a big grain of salt, especially as other sports outlets haven't provided any confirmation.

As for Rays management? Your Price clock is ticking. Not the July 31 clock, which, in your greed, is likely to pass by without result.

No, your March 31, 2015 contract. With the start of next year's season, Price, with a new team losing the QO right, officially enters rent-a-player stage.


andywilliamsflorida said...

The Rays are back in it. David Price is off the market for the next few weeks. They are 11-2, have gone from 14.5 out of first to 8.5 out of first. I doubt the Rays are being greedy. I'd rather think that the Rays see an opportunity. They are 5 behind the Yankees. 6 behind the Blue Jays. Their payroll is at an alltime high, and wheen you can make up this kind of ground, in this little of time, your "sellers mode" becomes "hlders mode" until the deadline.

andywilliamsflorida said...

We don't agree on our David Price market evaluations for sure. I'd like to pose a more realistic trade for you. Your offense stinks. You don't need me to tell you that. You've scored the 2nd fewest runs in MLB. You need an upgrade.

If the Rays are out of it come trade deadline, what's your thoughts on Zobrist for Wong +. Zobrist has been worth 2.7 fWAR this year, tied with Chase Utley for 4th. I don't really believe in Dee Gordon or Brian Dozier for the 2nd half, who are both currently ahead of him. Zobrist is making 7 mil this year, and 7.5 next year, which is next to nothing. If he's a 5 win player, and a win is worth 7-8 mil according to fangraphs, he's worth around 50 mil more than he's currently making over the lifetime of the deal. Kolten Wong is a .2 WAR player. Adding Zobrist will add 3 wins to this year's team, and 5 to next year's team, at a cost of 10 mil. What's it worth to you. Wong plus what?

Gadfly said...

I'm not trading Wong for a 2B already starting to decline, likely overrated earlier in his career due to Tampa's early use of shifts, and one who will thus not add 5 WAR to the Cardinals next year. Let's say he added 3.5 WAR next year and Wong would add 2.5 WAR. That's a 1-WAR difference.

As for being "in it"? Well, the Rays are perhaps less out of it than they were 2-3 weeks ago. ESPN still rates their chances at the postseason at 4 percent.