Peak Oil may not have been so wrong

Let's let the International Energy Agency weigh in, in a piece on oil and gas field decline.

First this:

Most unconventional sources of oil and gas production generally exhibit much faster decline rates than conventional types. If all investment in tight oil and shale gas production were to stop immediately, production would decline by more than 35% within 12 months and by a further 15% in the year thereafter. Shale plays in the United States are also becoming “gassier,” raising overall decline rates as oil-rich fields mature.

OK. Lots of us have known that for years, and why we haven't believed the bullshit from frackers. Basically, they've robbed Peter to pay Paul, and often at below-market rates.

Then this, specifically about that robbery:

Natural decline rates are becoming steeper. In 2010, natural decline rates would have led to a 3.9 mb/d annual drop in oil production and 180 bcm annual drop in gas production. The sharper natural decline rates observed now compared with 2010 reflects the higher reliance today on unconventional sources, changes in the mix of conventional production (such as more deep offshore fields and NGLs), and a higher supply base.

Got it?

Then this, which is unlikely to happen:

If current levels of production are to be maintained, over 45 mb/d of oil and around 2 000 bcm of natural gas would be needed in 2050 from new conventional fields. Investment in existing conventional oil and gas fields – for example through well workovers, infill drilling, waterflooding – slows production declines from the natural decline rate. There will also be a contribution to the supply balance from oil and gas projects that are still ramping up, from projects that have already been approved for development, and from ongoing investment in unconventional resources. Still, this leaves a large gap that would need to be filled by new conventional oil and gas projects to maintain production at current levels, although the amounts needed could be reduced if oil and gas demand were to come down. 

Around 230 billion barrels of oil and 40 trillion cubic metres (tcm) of gas resources have been discovered that have yet to be approved for development. The largest volumes are in the Middle East, Eurasia, and Africa. Developing these resources could add around 28 mb/d and 1 300 bcm to the supply balance by 2050. 

Filling the remaining supply gap to maintain today’s production through to 2050 would require annual discoveries of 10 billion barrels of oil and around 1 000 bcm of natural gas. These amounts are just above what has been discovered annually in recent years. Developing these resources would add around 18 mb/d and 650 bcm of new oil and gas production by 2050. 

In recent years, it has taken almost 20 years on average to bring new conventional upstream projects online. This represents the time from the issuing of a new exploration licence to the moment of first production. This includes five years on average to discover the field, eight years to appraise and approve it for development, and six years to construct the necessary infrastructure and begin production. Around two-thirds of conventional oil and gas projects approved in recent years have been expansions of existing fields, and more than 70% of recent conventional approvals are offshore.

OK.