Dade Phelan bails out on Texas House speaker battle

Incumbent Speaker of the Texas House Dade "Dade" Phelan has officially bailed out (not "bowed out," but "bailed out") on seeking a return to the spot.

“Out of deep respect for this institution and its members, and after careful consideration and private consultation with colleagues, I have made the difficult decision to withdraw from the race for Speaker of the Texas House," he said in a statement. "By stepping aside, I believe we create the best opportunity for our members to rally around a new candidate who will uphold the principles that make our House one of the most exceptional, deliberative legislative bodies in the country—a place where honor, integrity, and the right of every member to vote their district takes utmost precedent."

Clearly he thought he not only was going to not only finish behind challenger David Cook, but not be able to keep Cook below the 60 percent mark in the House GOP caucus meeting tomorrow. Per its rules, at least on paper, if one candidate gets more than 60 percent, the entire caucus is bound to support them.

The Trib adds that Phelan, unlike Cook, had not released a public list of supporters, despite some pressure to do so.

For that reason alone, it's not surprising. But, the man's whole character also makes it unsurprising to me.

It also has where the math stood at before Phelan jumped out:

Heading into this week, Cook had touted 47 supporters, including two unnamed backers. He picked up support from state Reps. David Spiller of Jacksboro and Trent Ashby of Lufkin this week, putting him four votes shy of the 60% threshold.

Ahh, Spiller, my legiscritter, and flip-flopper on school vouchers, jumping on the Strangeabbott bus on the last special session of 2023.

Dustin Burrows is clearly the man with Phelan out, for the non-wingnut, or non-totally-wingnut, Republicans to rally behind.

Will House Dems do so?

Here's what the Trib has:

After Phelan announced his withdrawal, the House Democratic Caucus issued a statement saying that “[f]or any Speaker candidate interested in serving the House, the Democratic Caucus is available to listen, and hear their plans to finally give Texans a legislative session that puts people over politics."

It was unclear if House Democrats would unite behind Burrows. On Thursday evening as Burrows was courting Democratic support, state Rep. Ana-María Ramos — a Richardson Democrat who chairs the Texas Legislative Progressive Caucus and is running for speaker herself — made clear she opposed Burrows’ bid for the gavel. She cited his role as the lead author of a sweeping new law aimed at sapping the power of local governments, particularly in Texas’ bluer urban areas.

“Working Texans deserve a leader in the House who will stand up for them, and not do the bidding of corporate donors,” Ramos posted on social media, along with a video of her sparring with Burrows on the House floor over his measure, dubbed by opponents as the “Death Star bill.”

IMO, if they can reach a deal with Burrows, House Dems will throw Ramos in the ditch.

But, can they?

What if Cook breaks 60 percent in the GOP caucus? Will Burrows officially withdraw? Will some other not-totally-wingnut Republican risk censure, or even party expulsion, to cut a deal with Dems, at least if they agree to give a unanimous vote from every member not named Ramos?

That said, it's not just Ramos. Senfronia Thompson also has little love lost for Burrows, per this piece.

Would Burrows step aside for a not-totally-wingnut Republican if Cook doesn't clear the 60 percent GOP caucus threshold but he can't get traction enough with Dems to cross the big 76 finish line?

That second link also notes Burrows' past connection to Mucus shivving Dennis Bonnen; it also makes clear that, aside from intra-GOP political stances, the not-totally-wingnut Republicans want a more collegial leadership style than Burrows had. It's possible another contender does jump out at the GOP caucus, even on late numbers. More on that here; the "Death Star" bill is related to the 10 House Republicans that Bonnen, and Burrows as the then leader of the GOP caucus, were willing to throw off a cliff. It was the bill that would have made folks like the Texas Municipal League "lobbyists" who couldn't represent local governments. Joe Straus had previously 86'ed it. Also of note? Ramos was on the "Mucus tape" that led to Bonnen blowing himself up.

Meanwhile, House Dems have their own change. Gene Wu has defeated incumbent Trey Martinez Fisher to run the Democratic caucus. Wu appears ready to fight Republicans more than TMF was, which will add to the complexity of negotiations with Burrows or whomever.

My guess is that Burrows won't be able to get more than 2/3 of House Democrats.

So, my bottom line? To riff on this r/Texas subreddit piece? Yes, Texas Democrats, you're cooked unless somebody else besides Burrows enters the list to challenge Cook. Frankly, I'm pretty sure Burrows knew, before he filed his paperwork, that lots of Dems wouldn't support him. And, no, I don't think he can outpoll Cook in the GOP caucus.

He looks almost like a bell cow of controlled semi-opposition.

Update, Dec. 7: Burrows also either, jokingly, has numerical dyslexia changing 67 into 76, or he thought he could create a stampede with easily refuted claims. If he was trying to bum's-rush wavering House Rethugs, it's blowing up in his face. If he just told lies, or semi-lies or something, it's blowing up in his face.

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Addendum: Wu should right now be contacting the entire House Democratic caucus for a yea/nay so he has some numbers to present to Dustin Burrows in particular and to opponents of David Cook in general, as to how many members of his caucus will not support Burrows. No names, of course, but to give Burrows some sense of the House Democrats. You're the leader, Gene.