SocraticGadfly: Mike Trout is not actually chasing Babe Ruth

July 13, 2018

Mike Trout is not actually chasing Babe Ruth

Mike Trout: Possible
single-season GOAT?
Starting with David Schoenfield, folks at ESPN baseball coverage, and now ESPN Stats and Info, have been claiming that Mike Trout is chasing Babe Ruth, namely Ruth's 1923 season, for the best year in baseball history by WAR.

He's not, unless he's trying for second place.

You see, I got curious, and went on Baseball-Reference myself.

The best year in MLB history is NOT Babe Ruth's 1923. Not at all.

But, who?

It's Walter Johnson's 1913.

Walter Johnson: The
current WAR GOAT
The Big Train had 15.0 WAR on the mound, compared to Ruth's 14.3 at the plate.

Now, somebody will pop up that single-season WAR numbers can vary half a WAR point, so just maybe Ruth is ahead.

Nope.

Johnson also had 1.4 at the plate for 16.4 WAR total.

Now, ESPN Stats and Info had one of their staff snootily tweet back to me when I tweeted this, that it was about position players only.

Well, Schoenfield never said that.

This dude said "it was implied."

I said "oh really"?

He then said that WAR favored pitchers, especially in the dead ball era.

First, as I've blogged before,1913 was semi-live ball, not totally dead. About all rules had been standardized, homers were up a tick, doubles up two or three ticks, etc.

Second, if you throw out pre-1920 years, as I then told this guy, half of the top WAR years were by batters anyway. (I took top 50 and threw out from there.) One third of post-1910 were, and almost all of the 1910-20 years that stay are Johnson's. Take top 50 and ties I then said "bye!"

Let's look at modern pitchers — post-1910, in my take — who are at least in the ballpark of the Babe's year.

Johnson, again, 14.8 in 1912
Dwight Gooden, 13.3 WAR (an under-21 record) in his phenomenal 1985
Pete Alexander, 12.7 in 1920
Walter (Guess Who) Johnson, 12.7 in 1914, part of a phenomenal three-year stretch.
Steve Carlton, 12.5 in 1972
You know Who, 12.5 in 1915, part of a phenomenal four-year stretch
Ed Walsh, 12.2, 1912
Roger Clemens, 12.1, 1997
Hal Newhouser, 12.1, 1945
Bob Gibson, 11.9, 1968
Old Pete, 11.9, 1916
Ferguson Jenkins, 11.9, 1971

So, ESPN Stats and Disinformation Guy? Not Even Wrong. That's 13 seasons by 9 pitchers. Even if we go to 1920 or later, we have seven seasons by seven pitchers. Post-integration?  Still have four seasons by four different pitchers.

Besides all of the above, it's fun busting ESPN's chops and doing so in a better-informed fashion than Deadspin.

1 comment:

Gadfly said...

Aug. 30, 2021: Schoenfield is now trying to imply Shohei Ohtani may be having the best season of all time. Not having it. I tweeted this to him, and will do a new blog post.