A seismic political shift in Canada?

A month ago, after Liberals and New Democrats in Ottawa combined to give Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper a backdoor no-confidence vote, I predicted Conservatives would win an absolute majority, mainly because Liberals looked weak and ineffectual.

Well, they still do.

But not the suddenly surging New Democrats.

A new Angus Reid poll done in partnership with the Toronto Star and La Presse puts Stephen Harper’s Conservatives at 35 per cent, the NDP close behind at 30 per cent, the Liberals at 22 per cent, the Bloc Québécois at 7 per cent and the Green Party at 5 per cent.

In Ontario, the Conservatives lead at 37 per cent, the Liberals are at 30 per cent and the NDP are just three points back at 27 per cent. In Quebec, the NDP are at 38 per cent, replacing the traditional front-runners, the Bloc Québécois. The Bloc are second with 29 per cent, the Liberals at 16 per cent and Conservatives at 14 per cent.

NDP leader Jack Layton campaigns./Photo Montreal Gazette.

Off the top of my head, that makes it look like the election could come down to British Columbia.

Unfortunately, in provincial elections there last year, the NDP for narrow political reasons opposed some renewable energy provisions supported by the Conservatives, who went on to win. Whether the NDP can recover or not, I don't know.

More on polling volatility from NOW Toronto:

(O)ne poll is indicating the Conservative will win only 133 seats; another goes as high as 162 (155 is a majority) for the Conservatives even though it projects 86 seats for the NDP.

In either case, the NDP looks like it will at least finish a solid second.

It also looks like Harper's Conservatives have learned another trick from the GOP: vote caging.

That said, I'll venture a new prediction: if the Liberals finish third, no matter who is first or who is second, Michael Ignatieff is out as party leader.

Speaking of, he's worried enough about the apparent NDP surge to attack NDP leader Jack Layton.