Could Lib Dems win UK?

After Britain's historic first-ever television debate between prime ministerial candidates, it's certainly possible, with the Liberal Democrats moving into a polling lead.

But, with thinness on the ground, and other factors, Nick Clegg's party could finish first in total votes amassed but second or even third in number of parliamentary seats won. For possible MP breakouts, here's a good interactive page.

That said, the "surge" by Clegg, after what is widely considered him having a solid win in the debate last Thursday (the first of two) has put both Prime Minister Gordon Brown's Labour and David Cameron's Tories on the attack against Clegg.

Meanwhile, the debate and post-debate Lib Dem surge seem to reflect a few things:

1. Both "incumbent/mainstream" parties still have significant loathing over the expenses scandal.
2. The Lib Dem opposition to the Iraq War isn't useless with British withdrawal there; there's still Afghanistan, and broader foreign policy issues.
3. If Clegg can finesse Eurozone issues in the second debate, the Tories' bashing of him will boomerang, and the party's "old" and "new" wings will glare at each other.
4. If the Lib Dems can take half of those still "undecided," the party could have a clean win. If not, it's coalition time.

But, with whom?

I really can't see a Lib Dem-Tory mix. The Conservatives, in such a case, will be splitting more and more into "old" and "new" factions, and the "old" faction might not want to stay in coalition very long.

Lib Dem-Labour is more likely, but with more serious wrangling over portfolios, the amount of "reform" and more. Given that current election inequities most favor Labour, this could also be a sticky wicket.

That leaves two possibilities.

One is a minority government. However, in contradistinction to Canada, for example, I don't see that happening in Britain.

The other? A la Germany, a "grand coalition" of Labour and Tories, cutting the Lib Dems out.

Don't laugh. Cameron is almost alcoholically thirsty for something he can call a win, even if Brown gets to stay as PM. Brown wants a win in his own right. Simple enough.