SocraticGadfly: The Bradley effect parsed

October 13, 2008

The Bradley effect parsed

Both the New York Times and the Washington Post offer up in-depth stories about the Bradley effect.

The Times story ponders the following issues about the Bradley effect:

• Does it exist?
• If so, how much might it be worth, this election, in percentage points?
• Is there a reverse Bradley effect?
• Is it diminishing?

Answers? Yes, not too much, yes, yes. In general, halfway good news for the American democratic project.

The WP story is more generic, but Obama campaign manager David Plouffe did say he expects increasing black turnout, and vote percentage for Obama, will more than offset any possible Bradley effect.

Here’s his take on the issue:
“The Bradley race was 26 years ago, OK?” Plouffe countered. “That’s before the Internet, before cellphones. It's ridiculous.”

But, the Post notes that Hillary Clinton is doing surrogate campaigning in the most possible Bradley effect areas.

That said, I don’t think the “that one” comment by McCain in the second debate was racist. It was condescending, but that’s not necessarily a race-based emotion.

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