Colorado River Compact states continue to fiddle while the climate burns

The seven states of the Compact (or what's left of it) still refuse to come to a deal.

And, per the newest reporting on the status of negotiations by Inside Climate News, California and Nevada, at minimum, are pledging to sue. The AP also weighs in, with many of the same talking points about possible lawsuits as the century-old Compact expires in September, the increased likelihood of wildfires, and watering restrictions in places like Denver. But, with the AP speaking, that officially makes it Serious News.

I, like ICN, noted the problems with the deadlock on compact negotiations a month-plus ago.

And, having just gotten back from the greater Lower Colorado area, have experienced the lower-elevation big heat-up already. That, per ICN's story and my knowledge, is not as bad as the heat-up in the Upper Basin combined with the drought. But, it's problematic enough. It means Powell, Mead and reservoirs further downstream on the main stem of the river have started summer evaporation already in early spring. And, though water takes longer to heat up than land, the heating up is happening, and means that when normal summer heat comes, these damned lakes behind their damned dams will be what? Probably 3-5°, or 2-3°C, hotter than normal,  meaning they'll evaporate even more quickly.

As for the Upper Basin? 

Per the Snowpack site, we're at the worst snow levels in a decade. Now, everybody in the Rockies and Uintas know that late snows can happen. Barring an incredible thermometer flip, though, even if the area DOES get any later spring (or early spring for the mountains) precip, it's going to be rain not snow. 

The picture has the details of the 10-year average, but the chart is interactive and will tell you this year is at 60-percent of the 30-year average, another sign this is a long-term drought.

Otherwise, NOAA's 30- and 90-day forecasts offer no hope, albeit slim longer-term precipitation help possibility for a small area from Tucson to El Paso. But that's in the second half of summer, too late for much help, and too far out to be that weighty.

So, what happens?

In Aridzona, they blame California and alfalfa for Saudi horses grown in-state.

In California, they threaten suits if their first appropriation is threatened.

Neither follows Nevada's lead in being more aggressive on requiring things like low-flush toilets in new development, renovated commercial development, etc.

Nevada, having done a one-off on conservation, and with the smallest Lower Basin rights, may threaten to sue, but has little angle.

The Upper Basin?

Some governor or legiscritter or Congresscritter will go Vladimir Putin and say that they accept climate change is good and it means more crops can grow up there and so they need to hold on to their water. This is most likely in high-up Wyoming, followed by Utah then the Western Slope in Colorado.

Otherwise?

Utah has somebody to speed up getting water to St. George via the laughable Lake Powell Pipeline — including the laughable claim, as of a year or two ago, that high end on cost would be $2.2 billion. Five times that high is more likely for the LOW end. That said, per ICN 18 months ago, officially, for now, the pipeline is dead.

Colorado has High Plains farmers bickering with Western Slope farmers over cross-Rockies water transfers.

Wyoming, with no people, welcomes warming and pushes a libertarian attitude toward Upper Basin water.

New Mexico, finalizing its Rio Grande water suit settlement with Texas, looks for more cross-basin diversion of its own, slim as what it can do. 

Reality Winner still appears less than fully in touch with her own reality

This is a moderately tweaked and moderately expanded version of my Goodreads review. It's certainly less expanded than many Goodreads reviews that I deem worthy of expansion either here or over at my philosophy and critical thinking site, but I thought it worthy of at least a bit of both.

I Am Not Your Enemy: A Memoir by Reality Winner
My rating: 2 of 5 stars

1.75 stars rounded up, and for the MAGAts who most likely are many of the non-review 2-star ratings, it becomes the first 2-star review. (It goes on my "Meh"shelf but not my "Disappointing" because I wasn't expecting much in the first place.) Speaking of?

This review is coming from a non-duopoly leftist who suffers neither from Trump Derangement Syndrome, NOR from Trump Delusional Syndrome, per the one 1-star reviewer, an apparent MAGAt. I venture her comments represent at least four or five of the non-reviewing 2-star raters.

Rather, it’s someone from the left with Trump Reality Syndrome, who knows Russia hacked both the DNC and RNC computers in 2016, but also knows that its efforts to hack state-level and lower election and voter verification websites were a semi-nothingburger.

I also knew early on that the “Golden Showers” was laughable. Trump is literally shame-less, so even if had had a Golden Shower or four with Russian whores — or pre-marriage with a Slovenian soft-core porn model who came to the US on a fake visa — he could not be blackmailed. (I mean, this is a guy whose granddad pimped whores to miners in the Klondike.)

Per what I wrote shortly after her arrest about Winner’s own stupidity as well as The Intercept’s, I wanted to see if nine years of life had smartened Winner up. On the political issue that led to her arrest, and to her overreading a semi-nothingburger document, it appears not to have done so, as least as judging by silence.

(Beyond the Intercept's belated apology, plenty of other people owe her apologies. Like Michael Steele the British ex-MI6 agent who bought "Golden Showers" hook, line and sinker. Or Jon Chait, with his blathering that Trump has been not just a Russian but a USSR actual "asset" since the time of Gorbachev. None of these apologies, nor a pardon from the USofA government, will ever be forthcoming.)

Also, getting through the early part of the book, and either forgetting or not knowing that she had converted to Judaism or other things, wanted to see if she had any comments on Zionism, and its threat to the US. Nope. None in the whole book, despite Bibi Netanyahu being more of a danger to the US than Vladimir Putin. Yes, not all Jews are Zionists. But, still.

I think Winner has realized she can’t save the world. But, beyond not talking about Zionism, she says nothing about what she thinks today about Russiagate, which means she likely still believes it.

Her last (I guess) attorney? Allison Grinter (Gunter)? The attorney full of crap and lies in the PRO Gainesville case? (This is why I’m a skeptical leftist.) It's kind of fun having a bit of personal connection to a book.

I otherwise have one takeaway about her post-arrest story. In talking about her trial, she claims, without using the exact phrase, that she was not Mirandaed at her initial interrogation and arrest by the FBI. Really? Then why wasn't this raised at trial? Somehow, I think her framing is off. For example, you don't have to be Mirandaed if police indicate in some way, even without shouting it out, that you're free to leave. (Or free to tell them to leave if they're on your property and don't present a warrant.) And, from the way she lays out the scenario, it sure looks like that's what happened.

Otherwise, this is a tale of sadness, sadness in some ways that Winner herself doesn’t seem to grasp.

Her life seems to exemplify a sex-neutral version of the second half of the first of the ten Divarim from Exodus.

“The ‘sins’ of parents visit themselves even unto the third and fourth generation of those that hate me.” Throwing out the ideas of god, whether Yahweh, Jesus, Zeus and the House of Atreus or whatever distributing multigenerational punishments for sin, as secular psychology this is quite true. Winner’s parents were both hurt people who entered college looking to work for CPS, to help hurt people. They probably married each other to heal each other. It certainly didn’t work with Winner’s biological dad, and beyond the “Momface,” a nickname never explained in this no-index (dinged!) book, may not have totally worked with her mom.

Winner was hurt too. There’s the bulimia which pops in out of nowhere and is never explained as to how or why it started. (Hold on to that thought.) There’s what she calls “marking” in federal prison, but which is normally known to counselors as “cutting.” Then there’s the whole psyche, at least before getting out of prison, and certainly before her arrest, as a person who simply cannot stand still, and in a number of ways, simply cannot stand being alone.

The “hold on to that”? I quote from my review of the book “Bottoms Up” by Kerry Howley, a person Winner touts several times. (The book is actually a 1-star effort, more disorganized and more shallow even than Winner’s own book. )

Winner appears to have had a highly compartmentalized, and highly fragile, psyche, held together and shielded only by a highly disciplined organizational self. That, obviously, was shattered. And, I don’t know if she was put back together again by Humpty Dumpty’s sources. (For instance? The admission of bulimia that shocked her mother? We're never told when it developed. While we read about a new boyfriend every six months, we never have Winner say why — if she even consciously knows why. Nor do we hear more about her sister's apparent long-standing feeling that Reality was often a jarring intrusion into her own life.)

We’re not told that last bit by Winner, either, who is all smiley-faced about her sister throughout the book.

I think Winner is more hurt than she may realize. Maybe she's more hurt than she wants to realize, for that matter.

Bulimia? Cutting? With lesser “tells” of not being able to be alone and having a new boyfriend every six months? Trusting people to the level of gullibility? (There's one or two other things, but those are the biggest.)

I could be wrong, but to me, this is screaming child sexual abuse.

Reality Winner, I deeply hope I'm wrong. I at least as deeply hope that if I am not wrong, you're able to see this past and get help for it. 

Even if it's not that, I still think there's something we're not hearing. It's Winner's right not to tell that, but it's also our right to say she's used up her 15 minutes of fame at th at point. 

Another round of Reddit blocks

"_something_anonymous" is a north Texas racist fucktard.

"Texas Patriot" that plus "just our heritage" slavery supporter. 

"Big Waleopolis" is an ICE hardliner, and a dudebro if he's talking testosterone replacement. 

All three popped up on a now-deleted post, about a guy rocking not just a Confederate flag decal on the rear window of his pickup, but also "1488" and a second Confederate flag flanked by the SS "lightning bolt" runes. 

Flip side? 

Did the guy who does "This Day in Baseball History" on r/mlb block me? Haven't seen it in two full weeks or more. Maybe he didn't like a pro-Palestinian comment of mine somewhere. 

Texas Progessives talk food and more

Off the Kuff points to CD23 as both an underrated pickup opportunity and a possible barometer of Democrats' statewide fortunes

  SocraticGadfly talks about the Cesar Chavez bombshell and why it didn't totally surprise him.

Neil at Houston Democracy Project reported how far-right Republican Councilmember Twila Carter sent the boss of Houston's police union to stand next to him, because he was taking pictures of public figures in a public place. It was just so stupid. And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

 The Texas Observer looks at the influencer factor in the Democratic primary

 Your Local Epidemiologist celebrates the legal victory for vaccines.

The Dallas Observer reported on a local public telehealth initiative that went wrong.

Texas Public Opinion Research announced its new project to test policy proposals.

The Barbed Wire tracks a number of Texas LGBTQ+ businesses that have disappeared.

Science news roundup — psychopathy and more

Is psychopathy — as used as a psychological personality disorder — a "zombie idea," one that won't die despite plenty of research, either "positive" contradicting the idea, or "negative," not returning supporting empirical evidence," showing that it doesn't hold water? Aeon magazine says yes. 

Global warming may actually be speeding up

No sugarcoating this reporting from Popular Mechanics:

What [Stefan] Rahmstorf, along with fellow co-author and U.S. statistician Grant Foster, discovered was that the world warmed an average rate of 0.35 degrees Celsius in the past decade, a significant increase from the 0.2 degrees Celsius increases typically recorded since 1970. This is obviously worrying, since not only is the planet warming, but the rate at which it’s warming may be accelerating, complicating the timeline for addressing the climate crisis.

Ouch.

The authors explain how they got to this point: 

The new finding was made by stripping away natural influences, such as El Niño events, volcanic eruptions, and solar activity, to analyze the underlying rate of warming.

That said, this would further backstop James Hansen's late-2023 findings, viciously attacked by Michael Mann. It would further backstop Peter Brannen's new book.

Per both of them, we have a "good" chance of hitting 5°C within a century. 

Is this too high? 

PM notes that other scientists have found accelerated warming, but at "just" 0.27 degrees.

Do the math. That's 2.7°C in a century, plus the 1.5 currently, for a total of 4.2. (The 3.5 would get us to 5C.)