SocraticGadfly: Hey, Democraps, Trump is clearly not under Putin's thumb

June 18, 2026

Hey, Democraps, Trump is clearly not under Putin's thumb

I had originally scheduled a piece about pumping the breaks on calling Trump a fascist for this time slot. 

In the wake of multiple news stories from the G7 summit this week, I've moved that back to next week, and this makes a good lead-in for that.

The first was from Tuesday, where Trump said he supported returning to the pre-Iran war level of oil sanctions against Russia.

The second was from yesterday, with the background of French President Emanuel Macron playing Trump, a cheap pawnshop fiddle, as though he were a Stradivarius, including making the Donald think he is a Strad.

The upshot of that story? This:

The G7 countries, including the United States, backed more sanctions against Russia and on Wednesday pledged “unwavering support” for Kyiv, promising new defense capacities while praising its “new momentum” on the battlefield. 
“The tide is turning on Ukraine,” European Council President António Costa tweeted. 
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said: “There has been a change in the United States’ position in the discussions on Ukraine, we consider this position to be more realistic regarding the situation on the battlefield.”

Beyond Democrats, I am wondering how two other classes of people will play that.

One is the "realists" of political science and international studies, the John Mearsheimers.

The other is the Russian flaks, flunkies and fellow travelers on Substack like Simplicius.

Contra both groups, I don't think Russia is winning. Mearsheimer has talked about the war becoming frozen at some point, while continuing to claim Russia is currently still winning.

I disagree. I think the battlefield is close enough to being frozen that, per Spock, the difference makes no difference. 

I'm more curious what fellow leftists, and non-imperialist conservatives, have to say.

Setting aside Trump's flightiness, any commitment to further Ukrainian armament by the US, along with the return of previous oil sanctions, let alone new ones, will squeeze him harder. Will he take inspiratoin from Trump TACO-ing to Iran and finally pull back from his maximalist demands? How much CAN he afford to pull back? 

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