In my Monday morning longform, I predicted the general outline of what we seem to have actually gotten — Liberal win, but plurality, not majority government, NDP decline. I went further on Shitter and offered numbers of 155-146-23-17-2. As it turns out, the "1" in the front of the "17" was wrong, as the NDP imploded worse than I would have thought and has lost official party status, in 168-144-23-7-1 numbers.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has resigned rather than get fired. Technically, the NDP could offer confidence and supply for Liberals to form a majority government, but in reality, that would probably just shove them further into irrelevance. (Also, and I don't know Canadian governing law, the NDP may not be allowed to do this after losing official national party status.)
We will see more in weeks ahead, but the margin of win means that Liberal leader Mark Carney could serve out the full four years.
And, with that, not only is party leader Pierre Poliviere a loser, but so are the Conservatives as a party. Do they double down on absorbing people like the now-defunct Alberta "Brexit" party, aka Wexit or whatever it was, or do they move off some of this stuff?
Also a winner? Canadian exceptionalism. And, yes, it's a thing, starting with the denial that "nice, polite Canadians" hold to such a thing.
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