Kenny Boy and the under-the-radar semi-nutter, Comptroller Glenn Hegar, are being sued for the state's law requiring "divestment" from companies that themselves have divested of fossil fuels. The lawsuit by the American Sustainable Business Council (the Trib, to which I'm not linking, said "Coalition") claims this is viewpoint discrimination and violates both First and Fourteenth Amendments. Also, members of the coalition claim, and rightly, that the economic harms of climate change make this a legitimate business decision. It also claims lack of due process and other reasons for hauling in the Fourteenth Amendment.
Odds of success? Per the old cliché, probably "slim," but yet, definitely more than "none."
First, this is a federal lawsuit, not a state one. Right there, that. increases the odds of success.
Related to that? Contra some BlueAnon that want to paint the Fifth Circuit as a monolith on all wingnut issues, many cases over the past few years have shown it's sympathetic to First Amendment cases.
Second, these are folks with deep pockets. They can and will fight.
Related to this? They want to cut off at the pass similar ideas in other states.
Third, they make sound business decision arguments as well as First and Fourteenth Amendment ones.
So, the likely course?
They win the preliminary injunction request at district. State appeals.
They possibly win at Fifth Circuit. Win or lose, somebody appeals.
IF SCOTUS grants the injunction, Hegar and Paxton are before next year's Lege, asking for follow-up legislation, knowing that this trial is going to take a few years.
The on the merits issue?
I think they can win on lack of due process, on that portion. Assuming the suit's various claims can be considered as severable, the First Amendment angle will be harder to fight. Federal law allows lower governments, I think, some leeway on state investments, and certainly, Texas state law does.
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