People believing that there was a conspiracy to cover up a lab leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology — whether they believe that the virus, if originating from there, was being bioweaponized or just gain-of-function research that escaped — are all called cranks and conspiracy theorists by natural-origin defenders who refuse to admit any other possibility having more than the remotest likelihood.
There are a few, like me, who think that the natural origin theory is more likely, but nowhere near a lead-pipe cinch.
There are those who think a lab leak is even more likely than I do, but still stay within the confines of reasonable science.
But, we’re few and far between.
Rather, it’s the natural-originers refusing to consider options at all who shove aside others who tilt toward that explanation but want to still investigate.
And, it’s the conspirators, whether conspiricizing about bioweaponing a coronavirus, as some inside Trump’s State Department and some on far-right media have done, or those “just” conspiracizing about a massive coverup of an allegedly massive, and very deadly, leak of a gain-of-function program that escaped, who have pushed out others on “their” side.
And, the two extremes have become like Brer Rabbit and Tar Baby to each other.
And, they like that.
If they’re in the media, for either side of the false dichotomy, it juices their ratings, clicks, etc.
If in the media or not, it juices adherence to them by their tribalists.
Let’s look at some of the specifics of either side.
It starts with Jason Leopold of BuzzFeed. BuzzFeed did the FOIA request to get these emails, which far-right websites and Twitter accounts first called a leak.
Leopold planted his flag firmly in the other half of the tribalism camp, though, with a story that totally fellated Fauci as a master scientist who has always, all along, had all things COVID under his control.
Leopold “conveniently” ignored Fauci’s past telling of a Platonic Noble Lie about mask-wearing, followed by a second Platonic whopper about herd immunity.
As I've noted before and elsewhere, by the start of March 2020, if not in late February, people like Zeynep Tufekci were calling out Fauci, or beyond or instead of calling him out by name, insisting that masks really did offer at least some degree of help both ways — protecting others from ourselves AND protecting ourselves from others.
And, Fauci has remained unrepentant about this, about shading his definition of what constitutes gain-of-function research and more.
He also has allowed associate Kristen Andersen to lie on his behalf.
None of this, of course, proves a lab-leak is the more likely cause. They only show Fauci’s mendacity.
Are such leaks possible? Yes, says former FDA head Scott Gottlieb.
And, Pro Publica did a piece about leaks at a North Carolina lab studying coronaviruses — a lab with ties to WIV.
Reinforcing this as an idea worth considering? Shi Zhengli of Wuhan Institute of Virology had connections with that lab — via the controversial Peter Daszak.
The reply of Dr. David Gorski, commonly known by his blogging nom de plume, Orac, and a leader in the “they’re all cranks” set? Note that Gottlieb touts his press clippings from far-right groups, ignore Pro Publica and ignore Fauci’s past Platonic lies. Given that Orac has been a tribalist on various matters related to “movement skepticism,” this is no surprise.
Pretending to have a new angle? On Substack, it’s Leighton Akira Woodhouse, attacking “the new clerisy.” It’s not a total strawman; much of modern American research science IS dependent on government grants, and between that and its bureaucratization, that does cause problems.
But, Woodhouse then reveals his “other side” affinities when he touts crank cures for COVID and more. He then tops it off by blaming tribalism for this problem without admitting his own contribution to it.
Woodhouse also has been touted by Glenn Greenwald. Glenn has no appearance of being an outright Trumper, but IS a Biden-hater who left the Intercept over that. He’s also on record on Twitter as rejecting most masking mandates.
Back on the “they’re cranks” side, Nautilus gives space to Tom Levenson. Levenson eventually tries to gaslight readers by claiming that a weaponization angle is the only endgame for lab-leakers and that this all boils down to Trumpism. This totally ignores that Mr. Neoliberal anti-Trumper, Jon Chait of New York mag, has pushed for more of a look at the lab-leak idea.
Jonathan Cook at Counterpunch tries to get past twosiderism, but does a less than stellar job. While attacking much of the “mainstream media,” he ignores the tribalism of far right media who, before Jan. 20, 2021, even if not believing in bioweaponization, were totally Trumpist in looking for tools to attack Fauci.
Per Cook and others? The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists piece by Nicholas Wade has been cited by at least some lab-leakers, and attacked by the “they’re cranks.” It’s interesting yet problematic.
Contra the likes of Orac, maybe it wasn’t in a biological journal because they all rejected it, because Wade isn’t a PhD, or both. And, the Bulletin ran it because of its long history of writing about the politicization of science. It's also part of a set of articles at the Bulletin by various authors that entertain the lab-leak theory.
At the same time, Wade comes close to strawmanning himself. He also has a problematic past as a fellow traveler of Charles Murray on promoting racialism.
To wrap up the issue? The tribalism and twosiderism, as should be clear by now, ties in with American duopoly tribalism.
And, per Alina Chan and 17 other scientists who co-signed a letter to Science magazine and are part of more and more scientists not worried about being considered crazies by #BlueAnon tribalists, either among the general public or among the likes of Orac, we may finally be moving that way.
And, that’s a good wrap-up spot.
World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Gebreyesus, while indicating he doesn’t think it’s likely, in March called for more investigation of the lab-leak theory.
Why can’t the “they’re cranks” do that, while still ignoring actual cranks?
Tribalism.
Someone like Zeynep Tufekci cuts through tribalism, why can't Orac?
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