Redistricting will hit West Texas Congresscritters hard

The map above, plus the so-called Texodus, tell the details.

Mac Thornberry, in the 13th (blue in the Panhandle) since 1995, Mike Conaway, in the 11th (red in west central Texas) more than a decade, and marginal Republican winner Will Hurd in the 23rd (purple in the southwest), are all leaving.

The 13th is rated as the most GOP-friendly seat in the nation and the 11th isn't far behind. The 23rd is a marginal seat, but many of its Hispanic voters have backed ConservaDems in primaries before, so a Democratic pickup might mean something in the aisles but not a lot in reality.

The fact is that West Texas' rural counties continue to, at best, grow more slowly than national averages and in many cases decline. Even the cities of above 75,000 or so — in size, from large to small, El Paso, Lubbock, Amarillo, Midland, Odessa, Wichita Falls and San Angelo —have not always grown quickly. The last two, with "old" oil and no new surge, have been nearly flat in population themselves.

Redistricting will be affected in part by whether or not the GOP holds on to the state House. If it does, then the new 23rd, if won by a Dem, will be even more gerrymandered than now. If the Democrats win, they'll try to protect that seat while putting it on the back burner of increasing their power in Austin-area districts, reversing old GOP gerrymandering there.

The 13th and 21st will interact with the 19th, 21st and 25th districts.

The 21st bears watching like the 23rd, as it is currently held by first-term Republican Chip Roy. Roy, a bigger nutbar than his predecessor, Lamar Smith, is in Democratic crosshairs for 2020. If he loses, the future shape of that district also depends on who controls the Texas House.

Jody Arrington in the 19th (orange between the 11th and 13th) is in his second term, and in a very safe district like the 11th.

Roger Williams in the 25th (gray in center) could be the big loser no matter what. He's older, is not a true Tea Party favorite, and lives in a very gerrymandered district. If Dems get the state House, their version of redistricting takes away the Austin tail of his district. The Fort Worth head probably gets put into part of a new Metroplex district, especially if you take southeastern Tarrant County out of the 6th District which makes a lot of sense. AND... current officeholder is GOP rookie Ron Wright, who replaced he retired-in-disgrace Smokey Joe Barton. Again, the future here depends on who controls the state House. Most counties in between would be added to the 11th; Hill County might get put in the 17th.

Is there any chance that the western portions of the 13th and 19th would be combined into an Amarillo-Lubbock district? Little, IMO, if the GOP holds on to the state House; if Dems take control, they're going to want to cram non-El Paso cities in West Texas into as few of districts as possible.

Stay tuned.