SocraticGadfly: Beto takes split decision over Ted, probably not enough

October 17, 2018

Beto takes split decision over Ted, probably not enough

I didn't watch last night's debate between Beto O'Rourke and Ted Cruz, but I did follow the Twitter hashtag enough to agree with Brains: Beto won a split decision.

He did have the boxing gloves on enough to use the "Lyin Ted" epithet. But the punches didn't seem to have huge force and even seemed scripted a bit (beyond Cruz calling them that).

Per Brains' one link, O'Rourke could have pushed harder on Cruz corruption. (It even alliterates!)

Per another link, did Beto move the "framing" away from immigration and the economy being the top two issues among likely Texas voters? Brains and I both know that Beto doesn't actually back single payer, but he has a lot of people believing he does and Lyin Ted scaremongering over it. Doesn't do any good for Beto, whether true or not, if it's not a top voting issue. (It is No. 3.)

At the Dallas Observer, Rice prof Mark Jones, a dean of Texas academic political analysts, says O'Rourke could have hammered Cruz on reproductive choice. In another piece, Jim Schuetze seems open to the idea that generational enthusiasm might push Beto forward; if nothing else, it's a way for him to kick establishmentarians in the Dallas County and Texas Democratic party hierarchies.

Sidebar from that last link: Trump has a nearly 20 percent net negativity rating in Arizona. That helps explain the shrillness of wingnuts against Kyrsten Sinema, a ConservaDem, in the Arizona Senate race. (And it is shrill; state GOP there, and national, and the wingnuts at Powerline are dredging up a bunch of "radical" bullshit. Attacking her on the antiwar angle [Powerline is Israel-fellating neocons] could backfire in a  place like Arizona with libertarian-leaning types who are antiwar themselves.) A smaller net negative may mean Dean Heller is in trouble in Nevada; small positive helps explain Phil Bredesen's struggle in Tennessee, while a bit bigger net positive in Missouri probably won't be enough for the Rethugs to defeat Claire McCaskill.

Beto has also, himself, and not third-party PACs, upped the campaign ad heat after the debate.

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