Right now, they're certainly behind the Warriors. Even though they stole JaVale McGee, the Dubs inking Boogie Cousins, Achilles and reputation all, is still an upgrade for a year for the Warriors.
They're behind the Rockets if they resign Clint Capela, and possibly even if they don't. They may be no better than the Thunder with a resigned Paul George. And, the rest of last year's top teams in the West aren't pushovers.
As far as other Laker adds? Rajon Rondo, even as a one-year placeholder, is past prime. Losing Julius Randle leaves the team white bread in other ways. (Randle will, IMO, fit well with the Pellies; he can stay done in the paint, or else pick-and-roll, and not be the No 1 or even No. 2 offensive option.)
LeBron is an iron man, but there's only so much he can do. If they don't land Kawhi Leonard this year, this is a 45-, maybe 48-win team. No more. I don't agree with 538's 52-win projection.
Without 3-ballers, for example, one of an opponent's other wing defenders can drop back as far as possible within the NBA's zone rules, ready to double up if/when James drives from up top.
As others have said, Rondo hasn't shown an inclination to shoot and Lonzo Ball hasn't shown he can. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Kyle Kuzma, if he's not traded, is the only holdover from last year that can hit the 3. Brandon Ingram was moderately successful on a relatively low shooting rate for a 3.
Ditto if LeBron posts up, which, per ESPN, LeBron smartly wants to do later in his career and is part of the Magic Johnson plan. Since the Lakers don't have two too many 3-ballers OR a lot of reliable post scorers, he can be doubled in many ways. If the rest of the Lakers offense gets stagnant on not making cuts, boy, this is gonna look bad. Seriously, to the degree traditional post games still get run in the NBA, LeBron is better than any holdovers.
No great rebounders with Julius Randle gone. With Brook Lopez now gone to Milwaukee, they have no rim protectors, though Lopez wasn't a great defensive switcher. In addition, that removes yet another 3-baller from the roster. Rondo and Ball may be good perimeter defenders, but Rondo is past career peak there, too. Moritz Wagner was not a great shot-blocker or general interior defender at Michigan.
And, if Lake Show fans are touting 10-year veteran Michael Beasley, who hasn't had more than 2.5 Win Shares in any of the last eight years, as an integral addition,. we have a team grasping at straws.
In reality, contra Rob Pelinka and Magic, I don't expect LeBron to hugely change his game. With the current Lakers O, there's probably going to be a fair amount of stagnation until midseason. And see what I said above if he does move more into the post.) Besides the biggies, it puts both the Jazz and Nuggets! ahead of the Lake Show. And, the rankings are framed to anticipate possible moves between now and the start of season.
ESPN's hoops staff seems to agree. Showing conference disparity, on July 23 it ranked the Lakers ninth overall, but just sixth in the West.
Next year? Sure, either Kawhi (if he really does leave Toronto) or an opted-out Kevin Durant is a possible. But a given? Of course not.
And, he's an iron man who is top 20 in career minutes and No. 1 in career playoff minutes. At some point, he runs out of gas. (He'll probably be No. 13 at the end of this coming season and probably No. 2 in two years, in regular season minutes. He'll be either No. 3 or 4 after three seasons, depending on how much longer Dirk Nowitzki plays and how many minutes per game.)
I say zero chance of a title this year.
For 2019-20, zero chance without either Kawhi or KD. Maybe 35 percent chance with one or the other.
That said, while the Warriors remain the team to beat, the Rockets losing both Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute may have slipped ..... but who's second? The Blazers? Meh. The Thunder without Melo but with other changes? The JAAAZZZ? No, the Lakers are not moving up to second in the Western Conference.
And we won't look yet at his third guaranteed year.
Nor will we examine, for now, that LeBron chose to move to the Daddy Ball circus.
No comments:
Post a Comment