#HOF quartet — thoughts on Baseball Hall of Fame 2018:Chipper Jones, Jim Thome, Vlad Guerrero, Trevor Hoffman

Last November, I semi-confidently predicted that all four gents would make this year's class at Cooperstown. Now, a bit more of a hot take on them, and those who fell short.

Chipper Jones

Chipper Jones was a no-brainer. He's a clear top-ten, and almost top-five, third baseman, and that's a spot underrepresented in the Hall. (JAWS ranks him sixth all time at the hot corner.) Jones had the 11th-highest vote percentage plurality, which I also find interesting, and a bit too high, if we use vote percentage as a guide to judge voters "level of HOFness" for a player.

However, it may well remain a bit underrepresented for a few years. Former Cardinanls third-sacker Scott Rolen barely broke the 10 percent mark, per official BBWAA announcement. I think he suffers from three things — a direct comparison to/overshadowing by Jones, a relative lack of counting stats that ties into that, especially on the power issue, and a number of nagging injuries in his career that are part of why he doesn't have some of those big counting stats. (He had 2,000 fewer PAs than Chipper.)

Jim Thome

Jim Thome I wasn't totally sure about, even with 600-plus homers, on getting in this year. He's never faced steroid whisperers, but being on a number of different teams, and spending half his career away from Cleveland, I thought that meant he could have less writers' loyalty than some. He also had a rap on defense, but he wasn't THAT bad. However, he got just about 90 percent, finishing third of the four.

One other note about Thome, for better or for worse. Before the phrase "three true outcomes" became common, he exemplified it. He's still second on the career strikeouts list. He's seventh on the career walks list, with an OBP 126 points above his batting average. And, of course, eighth on the career homers list, without "adjusting" Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez.

In second? A second year returnee, Vladimir Guerrero. In my preview, I said I consider him a borderline candidate, or maybe even borderline of borderlines. Nothing's changed. When he announced his retirement in 2013, he cited bad knees. The Jays gave him a semi-shot the year before, but he didn't make the big club before opting out. Yes, per the commenter below, he had an arm as well as a bat — and a stone glove, too. And, that SI link in this graf? Story's by sabermetric guru Jay Jaffe, who has the same take as me.

Among right fielders, Larry Walker is a better overall batter, has about as good an arm, and unlike Vlad, didn't have a stone glove on the opposite hand from that arm. Despite all that and a higher career WAR, he languishes with low vote percentages. I think lack of counting stats hurts Walker. Just as Vlad is below 3,000 hits and 500 HRs, Walker is below 2,500 hits and 400 HRs. Plus, I think HOF voters aren't sure how much to weight modern outfield defense. More on that below.

Note: I'm not sold on Walker for those reasons myself. I use him as an indicator of why I'm not sold on Vladdy.

No. 4 in this year's class is third-year candidate Trevor Hoffman, who was just one percentage point off last year. Voters and informed fans are still trying to figure how to judge closers. Five Thirty Eight's "goose egg" is a good starting point, and certainly a better one than saves. Going by it, one can call Hoffman deserving while noting that Lee Smith may be missing out.

Omar Vizquel should not be in, won't be in this year, but may have enough people fooled into thinking he's Ozzie Smith when he's actually more than 20 WAR below the Wizard, to eventually sneak in. There's a gap of 30 overall WAR and 15 dWAR. Vizquel is NOT a HOFer, but is already at work fooling too many people with 37 percent of the vote.

Otherwise, yes, Vizquel has the record for most career games at SS. And? Ozzie could have played another two-three years, but was tired of getting rat-fucked by La Russa in St. Louis, wanted to retire a Cardinal, and didn't want to play two-three years of half-time work.

Oh, lest I be called a Cardinals homer for touting Rolen and Walker while putting down Vizquel at the expense of the Wiz, I have repeatedly said that — roiding aside, too — Mark McGwire is NOT a HOFer.

Looking at other players of note. Andruw Jones played some great defensive CF at his peak. But, is it enough? Just barely — he got just over 7 percent of the vote and is the only other first-year candidate who will get another cup of coffee. Several recent stories have questioned whether thing like ultimate zone runs favor the defensive valuation of modern players, especially in the outfield, where we have total video coverage from the mid-1990s on, versus a mix of guesswork and video for older players. It's a good question.

Beyond that? He just doesn't meet my eyeballs test.

Returning candidates?

Edgar Martinez, in next-to-last year of eligibility, fell just 20 votes short. There will be a push for his name next year.

Mike Mussina approached 65 percent. With five years of eligibility left, he seems a good shot to make it, and possibly next year. He already should be in, I think.

Mariano Rivera is a lock next year, but if you look at first-year candidates on next year's ballot, Roy Halladay is the only other semi-possible one I see. (David Schoenfield offers his take on next year as well.)

What does that mean for other returnees?

Believed roiding twins Bonds and Roger Clemens both were in the mid-50s, just like last year. No new movement. Curt Schilling entered the 50s from 45 percent last year. All three have four years of eligibility left.

This year was just the fourth four-player election in history. I'm not expecting lightning to strike again next year, so two for sure and likely three in next year's election. And, just like I campaigned for Bert Blyleven for the Hall, I'll continue to campaign against Vizquel.

The "gold dust twins" and the HOF?

I've expressed my stance many times.

Joe Morgan, vice president of the HOF's board, had various numbnuts, most of them young punk sportswriters, combined with a few old guard of keyboard clatterers, shitting bricks over his "no roiders wanted letter. I'm with him on where to draw the line on Hall of Fame entry.