March 04, 2014

Are Texas Democrats facing a Senate train wreck?

That's what the Trib says, in its latest polling of Texas races.

If it's right, the party is facing a runoff between Mr. Prolife-Lying, David  Alameel, and Ms. Larouchie Nutbar, Kesha Rogers.

Perhaps Perry is right and their polling is whack. Given as much as Michael Fjetland has hit the email trail, I find it very hard to believe he trails the total unknown, Harry Kim. Maxey Scherr, in third, could make it to the final round if the Trib is wrong, or things are still liquid, or whatever. (And, speaking of polls, I have one of my own as to who will make the runoff; it does not have Rogers listed.)

Sadly, if it does come down to Rogers vs. Brown, the Green candidate for Senate, Emily Sanchez, is still as invisible as gubernatorial candidate Brandon Parmer was until a week ago. And, her using the nickname of "Spicybrown" on her Green convention listing doesn't inspire a lot of confidence or enthusiasm in me.

I could definitely pull a James Moore and sit out the general on this race entirely. And, speaking of Moore, he talks about some methodology problems with the poll in question. He may be overstating things somewhat, but, at the least, it's arguably that some of the numbers are probably more fluid than the Trib would have us believe. And, per Moore's previous work, I forgot that I had blogged two years ago about the Trib being a softie on environmental reporting AND founder Evan Smith being overpaid.

And now, Texas Democratic Party chair Gilberto Hinojosa is trying to avoid that train wreck, telling the faithful not to vote for Rogers. I agree. Too bad he stopped with just Rogers, though. Guess Wendy Davis and the Angles wouldn't like that, though.

Other takeaways?

Jerry Patterson's kneecapping of Dan Patrick apparently didn't work. Danny Boy is still No. 2 behind David Dewhurst in the GOP Lite Gov race. And, he's now doubled down on his denialism of the issue at hand.  That said, as Perry reminds me in comments, the poll was closed before the kneecapping incident. That said, can't we have quicker turnarounds on polls with just eight days left before the vote?

More interesting yet is that Debra Medina is leading the GOP Comptroller primary.

And Big John Cornyn is expected to overcome flabby, thin support, and win the GOP Senate primary without a runoff.

Finally, I don't get why Kuffner, an allegedly progressive blogger, likes Alameel so much.


PDiddie said...

Too early to tell on Patrick; poll closed before that story broke. Same with Abbott and Nugent.

If what the Houston area GOP is saying publicly means anything, Abbott got damaged worse than Patrick, and it seems to be because it was Patterson who hired the PI that dug up the dirt. That's just anecdotal, though.

PDiddie said...

Oh, and the GPTX Lt. Go. candidate is Chandra Courtney. Sanchez is the US Senate candidate.

Gadfly said...

Hadn't checked the poll's expiration date. Can't we get quicker turnaround time on polling with just a week left?

On Sanchez, clarified that she's the Senate candidate, as I look at pulling a Jim Moore on that race in the general.

Not sure I follow on why Abbott would take the "ding" for Patterson's kneecapping.

PDiddie said...

Yes, I conflated your reference to the Senate race with the LG candidate, Courtney. My bad, and I need to revise my own post.

I'm not suggesting that Abbott gets anything from good or bad from Patrick's dilemma. I just think Abbott had a much worse week than Patrick.