September 29, 2011

#RickPerrysTexasMiracle: unemployed teachers

Folks, this will keep getting worse before it gets better. First, per the story, teacher layoffs in Texas could approach 50,000 by the end of the school year.

Beyond that are larger issues. It's clear that the Texas miracle, to the degree it was real, was based almost entirely on immigration and to a large degree on illegal immigration. The non-oil/gas part of Texas' economy is now slumping, which leads to less of an immigrant flow outside those areas. And, various economic fears have taken the edge off oil prices, and hence growth in that area.

Housing? Maybe Texas isn't as "bubbly" as other Sunbelt states, but, it's not perfect. And, continuing woes in California mean fewer SoCal would-be retirees will actually be retiring. That means housing in East Texas' major metro areas will remain flat to slightly declining.

Add that all together, and I wouldn't be surprised if Texas' unemployment rate goes up another two-tenths of a percent to 8.7 by the end of the year.

No comments: