Hottest Northern Hemisphere ever

And the second hottest year on record. 1998 was hotter only because of a strong El Niño.

That’s the word from British climatologists.

Their data show that the average temperature during 2005 in the northern hemisphere is 0.65 Celsius above the average for 1961-1990, a conventional baseline against which scientists compare temperatures.

I’ll do the conversion to Fahrenheit for you.

That’s 1.17 degrees above the 1961-90 average.

I’m offering what I consider a moderate to conservative guesstimate.

With increasing industrialization of China and India at a rapid rate, plus Western nations probably doing no better than late 1990s, not early 1990s, emissions levels of CO2 in the future, that we will increase our temperature by the same amount by 2020.

Think about it. As it warms up more in boreal regions, more methane and other greenhouse gases get released from permafrost. Then, warmer air can hold more water vapor. Water vapor, like methane, is a more efficient greenhouse gas than CO2.

And, as more northerly portions of the Northern Hemisphere heat up even faster, I’m willing to bet mid-latitude United States areas like, say, Ohio, have a good chance of increasing a full 2 degrees Fahrenheit by 2020.

Will we go past a tipping point? Will my prediction above be too conservative? I wouldn’t totally bet against it.

If I don’t convince you, perhaps this graph will.