SocraticGadfly: Saudi Peak Oil is here!

July 17, 2022

Saudi Peak Oil is here!

Or, to be more precise, the announcement that is will be here in 2027 is now here. That's straight from the spavined mule's mouth of Muhammad bin Salman, who announced as part of the Biden Suck-Up Summit that Saudi oil production would max out in 2027 at 13 million barrels per day. OilPrice notes that Saudi Aramco can't ramp up faster than that. It also notes that other Gulf states don't have as much spare capacity as they've often claimed in the past. 

Sidebar: This why the Saudis say they won't seriously ramp up production without the agreement of OPEC+. Remember, warmongering Democrats, that that "+" is Russia. And, per that OilPrice peach, Riyadh and Moscow seem to be, and claim to be, on relatively good oil terms right now.

Even if you're not one of the Merikkkans who think oil is a divine righ, know that this is another issue where I as a third party voter don't see much daylight between Rethuglicans and Democraps.

For example, Obama's vaunted EPA gas mileage standard increases? First, they let SUVs continue to go by lesser pickup mileage standards and even allowed the gap between the standards to widen. Dear Leader also allowed a massive loophole for flex-fuel vehicles. And, how many of you actually put E85 in your Ford Edge that's labeled as dual fuel? Here's a list of that and other loopholes. Note that that link contradicts neoliberal Dems who say that Europe and Japan rely primarily on much higher fuel taxes to force more efficiency; actually, they also have mileage standards that beat ours. More here on what's wrong with the E85 loophole and the calculation behind it.

And, related to THAT?

Sidebar 2: Democrats' ripoff version of the #GreenNewDeal officially has "oily" hands, and like Dear Leader's energy strategy, is "all of the above.

“This president seems to be incapable of doing any of the hard work which needs to be done for the American people,” said Corbin Trent, co-founder of the No Excuses PAC and former spokesman for Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. “We need an all-encompassing US energy policy … a Green New Deal — which includes gas and oil.”

See paragraph 3, above. (Of course, per new DNC policy, he's pushing against an open door.)

And related to THAT?

Sidebar 3: Trent, also founder of Justice Democrats (blech) has shown an amazing ability for grifting while claiming to promote pergressuve Dems. He probably learned some of that from his boss, whose "origin story" has gotten a critical examination in these pages before."


Is this "real," or just MBS posturing?

Years and years ago, I was a regular commenter at, and occasional contributor to, the old Oil Drum website on peak oil issues. Still remember Jerome á Paris, Going West and others. One big item of discussion there on a regular basis was just how much, and how quickly, the Saudis could ramp up Ghawar. We have an answer, it seems.

As for the theory of Peak Oil? King Hubbert based his calculations on rational economic actors, but capitalist greed doesn't work that way. The Wall Street quants et al who lost their shirts in the Permian, along the "tragedy of the commons" greedy idiot drillers, did nothing to disprove peak oil. Beyond that, per Wiki's chart, we never actually have passed the 1970 peak anyway. (Red is his idealized projection, green is actual.)

World peak oil, as also discussed at The Oil Drum, was kind of a mug's game due to lack of transparency in most OPEC nations and beyond.

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