SocraticGadfly: Phat Albert keeps trucking, passes Mays

September 21, 2020

Phat Albert keeps trucking, passes Mays

This blogger salutes Phat Albert Pujols for passing Willie Mays into No. 5 on the all-time home run list. 

It was part of a two-homer day, just five days after No. 660 to tie.

Albert is not quite dead yet after his typical slow start to the season, but, the pandemic shortening has surely dinged his chance to cross the 700 mark on career homers next year and eliminated the possibility of passing Babe Ruth .

First, take a look at the video


And, now, some career discussion on those milestones.

Homers? Won't pass Ruth and certainly won't catch Hank Aaron or Barry Bonds, but Alex Rodriguez at No. 4 is reasonable next year.

Pujols is also at No. 5 in career doubles with 669. Ty Cobb > in fourth at 724 and Stan Musial in third at 725 are outside shots next year. Very outside shots.

Fifth is a theme! Pujols also holds that spot in career total bases. He's only about 50 behind Bonds and may pass him this year. Mays is about 140 away and will be passed next year. Musial, at just over 200 away in second, is a possibility next year. Aaron will remain far out of reach.

Pujols is third in RBIs. Has a good shot at Ruth's second-place slot next year, but the pandemic has cost him any slim shot of passing Aaron as all-time leader.

Unless ... he played 2022? Would he agree to an extension at the veterans minimum or something like that for one more year? Would Arte Moreno (and Haloes brass) do that?

In all likelihood, no. The New York Times notes, in its elegy for him passing Mays, just how steep his dropoff has been since leaving the Cardinals. Looking at equivalent career points in other top HOFers? Only Mickey Mantle, injury- and alcohol-induced, fell sharper. That said, if one goes a level below top-level HOFers, there have been dropoffs as bad or worse, and two of them are happening right now.

Celebrating his past, Benjamin Hoffman notes his 2003-09 peak wasn't matched by even his celebrated Angels teammate, Mike Trout. Nor was it matched by Miguel Cabrera, who has had a fall-off even more rapid and severe that of Pujols. Three of his last four seasons have been negative WAR and, if he hadn't won that Triple Crown, at sub-70 WAR for 1B/DH, arguably would NOT be a first-ballot HOFer. Joey Votto has partially redeemed himself offensively this year, but he's still off from two years ago and his defense has slipped further. Phat Albert is still, it seems, the last iconic 1B standing of his class.

And, Pujols is still chugging at the age of 41 (sic) or whatever. And, in reality, until he hit the far side of 35 (or 36, or 37) Pujols wasn't that bad. 3.0 WAR at 35/36/37 season, for example. Miggy? 0.4. Votto? 1.9. Votto, especially, never had near a Pujols peak.

Woudl some other team take a flyer on a cheap contract to goose attendance? See "Ruth, Babe," and "Boston Braves" and "1935." It's doubtful The Machine plays after 2021, but who knows?

2 comments:

daveminnj said...

Pujols would need 35 hrs next year to pass A-Rod, 116 rbi to pass Ruth.
Do you really think he's capable of that next year?

Gadfly said...

Dave, thanks for reading.

First, I was including the tail end of this season, with the few games it has.

Second, that said, 6HRs and 24 RBIs in 37 games this year. It's possible.

Is it LIKELY? Different story.