Trump and Iran, post-talks breakdown

This is an update and expansion on updates to my piece last week, the one about Trump TACOing on his planned war crimes against Iran.

With the breakdown of talks, Trump says he will blockade Hormuz, now underway, and based that threat on a lie, the lie that Iran had "promised" to reopen it. Will this bring him into a direct collision with China? That might just be called a half-lie, given Iran's and the United States' differing interpretations of what was agreed to before the talks in Islamabad.

Claiming other states will help with the blockade is an even bigger, and fuller, lie, though. It's one that in Britain, Der Starmer has already rejected. 

And, did two US vessels already sail through, early Sunday time in Iran, per the story on the talks failing? I kind o doubt that one, too, especially since the claim comes from Trump's Zionist flunky in the media, Barak Ravid. Then there's the lie by implication that this blockade would happen immediately, when in reality, Trump admitted Sunday morning US time to Maria Bartiromo that it wasn't so. 

Later Sunday, Trump them said it wasn't the Strait, just Iranian ports that would be blockaded. Good luck with even that. 

In an April 13 piece, Mearsheimer says that not only with the blockade not work physically in the way Trump claims, but that economically, it will actually backfire.  

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Related to Mearsheimer is the nutgraf from Responsible Statecraft, which is actually the subhed:

First of all, if Washington establishmentarians like the idea, there must be something seriously wrong with it

Bingo. 

The piece also reminds us, which the normal Nat-sec Nutsacks™ like Dennis Ross, quoted, don't, that this itself illegal under international law. Richard Haass of the Council on Foreign Relations, with his international control idea for the strait, is wanting to further violate international law. 

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A major part of the breakdown? Iran claims that Israel's newest strikes on Lebanon are a violation, per this AP story.  Therefore, it has closed Hormuz again. It has also said that any reopening will be under the management of its military. That said, Trump and "Glory be to Satan" Pete Hegseth claim Lebanon is not part of any cease-fire. Meanwhile, Trump and Karoline Unchristian Leavitt (she refuses to adopt her husband's surname like a good submissive married Christian woman) appear to disagree on what to think about Iran's earlier 10-point proposal.

THAT then said, Iran's Supreme National Security Council is dreaming if it thinks the US has agreed to compensate it for war damages.

So, per Mearsheimer, myself and many others, yes, Trump has his ass in a crack. But, not necessarily as deep a crack as Iran thinks. 

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Second, via The Dissident, negative views of Israel in the US have increased since the start of the war, per Pew Research. A big takeaway? Probably in part from the "manosphere," 57 percent of Republicans 18-49 now have negative views of Israel. 

Also via The Dissident, Daniel Levy said on Democracy Now that Trump must be made of less serious stuff than previous presidents, being dragged into this war by Netanyahu. Per Hegseth probably being behind the "glory be to god" of Trump's one Lies Social blast, how much did Bibi triangulate off him? 

Breaking off talks, and lying about nuclear weapons being the cause of the Iran war, and of the end of talks, show that Trump remains Satanyahu's sock puppet. 

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Will Trump go beyond a blockade, as in boots on the ground?

Not unless he's a bigger idiot than he has shown himself to be, even for himself. 

Via Jeff St. Clair's installment last week of his Friday Roaming Charges, climate change, despite being denied by Trump, may be another reason he wants an early exit from the Iran War:

And, US troops would be weighted down with much more kit than their Iranian counterparts. In addition, how would US machinery like the craptacular, sucktacular F-35 perform in these conditions?

That said, while the Pentagon may be thinking of this, would this actually sway Trump? 

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Also, per Jeff, how are Conservative Cafeteria Catholics in the US accepting, or rejecting, Pope Leo XIV's statements on the war to date, including, though not by name, the callout of the likes of Hegseth and also Trump's "Glory be to god"? His latest callout includes "the idolatry of the self." Gee, who is THAT about?  Yes, per the unChristian Karoline Levitt, US Catholics broke for Trump in 2024, but not by a huge margin, and I suspect he's underwater on them today.

Since then, Trump has attacked Leo, claiming he's "soft on crime" (really? other than past financial crimes, what crimes are there in the Vatican?) and also once again lying about how the war on Iran is about nuclear weapons.

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CNN says China is going to supply air defense systems to Iran. I told you who benefited from the two weeks, didn't I, in that original story? That said, Chinese Foreign Ministry spox Guo Jiakun says that's totally untrue. If they're laundered through third parties, per the next graf?

Specifically, if true, it's MANPAD shoulder-launched missiles like the one that shot down the F-15. In further shades of Afghanistan, US intelligence claims the sales will be laundered through third-party countries.

Per the Responsible Statecraft piece above? Would China really escort its own tankers with the Chinese Navy?  Boy, I'd find that hard to believe. That said, RS notes that Trump has an already-delayed meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping set for early May. Delaying it again would be a spicy Szechuan TACO.