When I saw #STLCards trending on Shitter shortly after noon yesterday, then Baseball Prospectus' email came in my inbox shortly after that, I quickly put 2 + 2 together.
And, I think BP did as well, on their PECOTA for the Cards. All of MLB is here.
So, I of course posted to Reddit.
Shortly after that, the first big reaction on Shitter that I saw was from Bernie Miklasz. He's far less of a Cards homer than Derrick Goold, so I generally trust his judgment on the Birds.
His YouTube was linked and here he is:
I think he's mildly overoptimistic, but not totally so.
Cards fans? Yeah, 70 wins is not unlikely. But 75 probably is. And, beyond actual counter-comments with alternative numbers, the fact my post was only at a 60-percent upvote two hours later rate reflects, IMO, the deep denialism mentioned in the header. (It did get to about 70 percent a couple of hours after that.)
Bernie mentioned FanGraphs as the best. I went there. And laughed when I saw:
All told, ZiPS sees St. Louis as, you guessed it, about a .500 team.
To put it bluntly? FanGraphs is full of shit. And so I told one person on Reddit who referenced it.
But? I'm sure there are Cards fans who actually believe that.
Get ready to get crushed. And, you need to be crushed. I've long seen, over the past two or even three seasons, the level of denialism by many Cards fans on Reddit. Many of them said, "Look, we had a winning record in 2024," ignoring the Cards' Pythag being negative. (Speaking of, despite the team winning 78 last year, its Pythag was at 74 wins. The amount of subtraction in trades? At least 6 wins. PECOTA's not off the mark.)
As for the team, the National League and MLB? My active baseball fandom, besides the Cardinals, has been in the decline for a few to several years. The denialism of other Cards fans only hastens that. And, they need to be crushed. I hope the team doesn't even hit the 66-win mark.
No comments:
Post a Comment