Will the Texas Rethuglicans really censure anybody?

The Trib looks at the possibility of the Texas Republican Party censuring anybody who does not vote for David Cook, choice of the House GOP Caucus, for Speaker. It also looks at the possibility, nay probability, of legal action by the censurees.

Sadly, it does not look at the possibility of a post-Gilberto Hinojosa Texas Democratic Party shifting its Overton window right and recruiting any censurees.

Censures were enacted against the likes of McDade Phelan in 2023. But, the 2024 state convention said the party can block a censuree from the next primary ballot, as a major change.

The Trib talks lawsuits.

“It's very unusual for a group of unelected party members to essentially say that they are going to deny duly elected officials the ability to run under the party's name,” said Joshua Blank, research director at University of Texas-Austin’s Texas Politics Project. “I think the one thing that's guaranteed here is that this will lead to a lawsuit if it's applied.”

The Trib cites state and federal court opinions in similar cases. On the other hand, some of those other cases were about restricting voting and not valid parallels, and others were decisions about individual candidates based on their backgrounds, such as "honorary" ex-Klansman.

The party censure's fallout is a different kettle of fish.  A censured candidate MIGHT win a primary ballot access lawsuit, but I'd by no means guarantee that.

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Meanwhile, Dustin Burrows still claims he has the votes to be Speaker. Will this soften his support further, which started eroding the day after the House GOP Caucus meet? Per this Trib update, he now stands publicly at 71.

And will Strangeabbott and his paid political consultants, whether working on his behalf or not, continue to try to play both sides against the middle?

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Chris Hooks weighs in at the Monthly, noting that whomever succeeds McDade will be the fourth Speaker in six Lege sessions, comparing them to the wives of Henry VIII. He sets out the background terms of these struggles in a nut graf:

For two decades, two Republican factions have struggled for control of the lower chamber. You could describe these sects as “far right” and “centrist,” but those terms obscure as much as they clarify. Whatever differences exist between the two cohorts on most policy issues are narrow. It is perhaps more accurate to say that this is a fight between what you could call institutionalists, who cling to a Burkean idea that the House should have sovereign authority over itself, and populists, who believe the body should function as an appendage of the party’s right-wing base and, though they prefer to de-emphasize it, its billionaire funders.

I think that gets it right.

Next, we get a petard-hoist side note:

Burrows helped institute the principle that the Speaker should be elected by the caucus, and command the support of its members, before any vote by the full House.

There you are!

Hooks speculates about the possibility of a third GOP candidate. Per my "started eroding" link, I said House Dems leader Gene Wu should have been actively encouraging that at the time of the GOP Caucus meet, even if he had been elected Dem head just a day earlier.